GET DAILY SIGNALSCharles Schwab (SCHW) Shares Slip 9.9% in 30 Days Despite Record Q3 Performance
Key Takeaways
- Charles Schwab (SCHW) shares closed at $88.05, down roughly 9.9% over the trailing 30 days and about 16% over three months, even as the company posted record results.
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 17% year over year to $7.2 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share up 29% to $1.69.
- Net interest margin expanded modestly to 3.04%, but higher-cost supplemental funding and lean client cash levels remained a central focus for investors.
- Client engagement stayed robust, with $190.4 billion in core net new assets during the quarter, an annualized growth rate of 5.8%.
- For a deeper view of valuation and expectations, explore Schwab's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
Current Market Snapshot
Charles Schwab's stock has been in a clear downtrend since early September, when shares traded near $108. The decline deepened through October, taking the stock to $88.05 by the most recent close. The pullback stands in contrast to the company's operating momentum: Schwab reported record revenue and strong client growth in its latest quarter, yet shares slipped after the release as investors weighed higher funding costs and the persistent cash sorting dynamic that keeps client cash lean. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The stock's softer tape also reflects a cautious posture across rate-sensitive financials. With Schwab's earnings tied closely to client cash and net interest margin, shifts in the interest-rate outlook and funding mix have a direct read-through to sentiment, even when underlying asset-gathering remains strong.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) Business Overview and Competitive Position
The Charles Schwab Corporation, founded in 1971, is one of the largest brokerage and wealth management firms in the United States. It combines retail brokerage, banking, custody, and advisory services under one integrated platform, serving individual investors and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs). The company ranks among the largest U.S. brokerages, with roughly $13 trillion in client assets and tens of millions of brokerage accounts.
Schwab's revenue model rests on three pillars: net interest revenue generated from client cash deposits and lending; asset management and administration fees from advisory and managed-investing solutions; and trading revenue. Its scale, low-cost operating structure, and integrated bank give it durable competitive advantages, while its position as a leading RIA custodian anchors a recurring fee-based business. Following the completed integration of TD Ameritrade, management has emphasized deepening client relationships through lending, advice, and newer areas such as private markets and digital assets.
Recent Developments Driving SCHW
Schwab's third-quarter 2026 results, reported in mid-October, were fundamentally strong. Revenue grew 17% year over year to $7.2 billion and adjusted diluted EPS climbed 29% to $1.69. Core net new assets reached $190.4 billion, with notable growth in pledged asset lines and bank loans. Yet the market's reaction was muted, as the firm added higher-cost funding to shore up its balance sheet against rising long-term rates, which tempered net interest margin gains to 3.04%. From what I see, this funding shift explains much of the post-earnings pressure.
Analyst actions captured the mixed sentiment. Interactive Brokers-watcher Raymond James lowered its price target to $135 from $145 while keeping an Outperform rating, and Morningstar trimmed its fair value estimate to $124 while maintaining a wide-moat rating. The broader consensus remained constructive, with an average price target above $120.
On the strategic front, Schwab expanded its AI capabilities for advisors, bringing Claude for Financial Advisors into Schwab Advisor Center and investing in the Nevis platform. The firm also declared a $0.32 quarterly dividend and continued advancing private-markets access following its Forge Global acquisition, while regulators weighed proposals to extend U.S. trading hours toward a near-24-hour session.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the key variable for Schwab remains the trajectory of net interest margin and client cash. If client cash as a percentage of assets stays near its recent level of 8.9%, below the historical average, interest-sensitive earnings could remain constrained. Conversely, further lending growth and any normalization of sweep deposits would support margins. I'm watching this closely because any rebound in cash balances could shift the narrative quickly.
Investors should also monitor the pace of technology and AI spending relative to revenue, given competitive fee compression from rivals such as Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and Robinhood (HOOD). Regulatory scrutiny of cash sweep practices, potential changes to market trading hours, and the firm's expansion into private markets and digital assets add both opportunity and operational risk. The direction of short-term interest rates and the broader equity market will remain important swing factors for trading volumes and client cash behavior.
Exploring AI-Driven Trading Approaches
In my view, adding systematic signals can complement fundamental analysis on names like SCHW. I often review Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how quantitative models are positioning around rate-sensitive financials.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SCHW's RSI Oscillator slumps oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for SCHW moved into overbought territory on October 30, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SCHW advanced for three days, in 185 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SCHW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SCHW turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SCHW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for SCHW entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SCHW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SCHW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.466) is normal, around the industry mean (3.108). P/E Ratio (15.951) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.904). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (7.800) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of securities brokerage and other financial services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers
Advertisement