GET DAILY SIGNALSCoeur Mining (CDE) Reports +77% Revenue Growth in Q3 2026 Despite Estimate Miss
Key Takeaways
- Third quarter 2026 revenue rose 77% year over year to $983.6 million, but came in below the roughly $1.24 billion consensus estimate.
- Adjusted net income was $97.8 million, or $0.10 per share, missing the consensus estimate of about $0.20 per share.
- GAAP net income reached $109.4 million, or $0.11 per share, with adjusted EBITDA of $448 million, up 69% year over year.
- Free cash flow climbed 27% year over year to $240 million, and the cash balance surged more than fourfold to roughly $1.2 billion.
- Gold production totaled 161,400 ounces, silver production was 4.2 million ounces, and copper production was 10.0 million pounds for the quarter.
- The company declared its second dividend of $0.02 per share and has repurchased $231 million of stock since mid-May.
Earnings Context and Integration Progress
Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) entered the third quarter as a transformed company. Its acquisition of New Gold, completed in March 2026, added the New Afton and Rainy River mines in Canada, expanding the portfolio to seven North American operations across gold, silver, and copper. That deal reshaped the company's scale, revenue mix, and cost profile, making this quarter an important test of how well the newly integrated assets are performing. From what I see, this report also matters because precious metals prices, particularly gold and silver, eased from prior-quarter highs, pressuring realized revenue. Investors were watching whether strong production growth and cost discipline could offset softer metal prices, while management's full-year guidance and capital-return decisions carried added weight given the company's rapidly growing cash balance. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
Coeur Mining reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $983.6 million, a 77% increase from $554.6 million in the same period a year earlier, but below the consensus estimate of approximately $1.24 billion. GAAP net income was $109.4 million, or $0.11 per share. On an adjusted basis, net income was $97.8 million, or $0.10 per share, missing the consensus estimate of about $0.20 per share.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 69% year over year to $448 million, while free cash flow increased 27% to $240 million. Production totaled 161,400 ounces of gold, 4.2 million ounces of silver, and 10.0 million pounds of copper. Average realized prices declined to $3,979 per ounce of gold and $62.22 per ounce of silver, down from $4,140 and $71.18 in the prior quarter. Adjusted costs applicable to sales per gold ounce fell 16% sequentially to $2,054, while silver costs held steady near $22.73 per ounce. One thing that stands out is how these cost improvements helped mitigate some of the revenue pressure.
Results were tempered by short-term operational disruptions, including a conveyor belt failure at New Afton and unusually heavy rainfall at Rainy River and Palmarejo. The company declared a second dividend of $0.02 per share, payable December 16, 2026.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the print was cautious, with analysts projecting strong year-over-year growth from the expanded asset base but trimming expectations following a second-quarter miss. The third-quarter results again came in below consensus on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, primarily reflecting lower realized metal prices and the temporary operational setbacks at New Afton and Rainy River. At the same time, the company highlighted record-level cash generation, a sharply higher cash balance, and continued shareholder returns, which may cushion the reaction to the headline miss. Investors are likely to weigh the durability of free cash flow and the trajectory of Canadian mine ramp-ups against softer near-term prices as they reassess the stock following the report.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, Coeur Mining reiterated its target of achieving record full-year production near the low end of its guidance ranges, pointing to approximately 630,000 ounces of gold, 18.7 million ounces of silver, and 40.0 million pounds of copper. Management also signaled expectations for record full-year adjusted EBITDA of more than $2 billion and free cash flow exceeding $1.3 billion at prevailing prices.
Several factors will shape the coming quarters. The ramp-up of underground mining at New Afton and Rainy River remains a central variable, given that both operations faced weather and equipment disruptions during the quarter. Cost control will be equally important, with adjusted costs per gold ounce improving sequentially but still influenced by non-cash purchase price allocation charges tied to the New Gold acquisition. I’m watching this closely as the company moves into a full year of contributions from its Canadian operations in 2027.
Exploring AI Tools for Mining Sector Analysis
In my view, tools like Tickeron’s AI Screener provide a practical way to filter for similar setups across the sector and track technical conditions in real time. This has helped me identify comparable opportunities and monitor how production trends and cost metrics stack up against peers without manual effort. It supports a more structured approach to following earnings-driven names like this one.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CDE's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CDE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CDE advanced for three days, in 236 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
CDE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for CDE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CDE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for CDE entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.324) is normal, around the industry mean (1.936). P/E Ratio (11.083) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.175). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.240) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.373) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.531) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CDE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company whichc engages in the development and exploration of silver and gold mining properties
Industry PreciousMetals
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