GET DAILY SIGNALSCompanhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Drops -17% in 30 Days: Deleveraging Risks in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) fell roughly 17% over the past 30 days, from about $1.10 in late September to near $0.91.
- The decline reflects persistent deleveraging and asset-sale execution risks rather than a single operational shock.
- Credit rating actions—a Fitch downgrade to CCC+ and S&P's cut to B+ with a negative outlook—have weighed on investor sentiment.
- Divestment progress, including the pending cement sale and the Stahlwerk Thüringen (SWT) term sheet, has offered intermittent support but remains unclosed.
- Second-quarter 2026 consolidated EBITDA rose roughly 5% year over year, yet the company remains loss-making with elevated leverage.
- Iron ore and steel pricing, plus Brazil's macro environment, continue to act as key swing factors for the stock.
A Closer Look at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID)
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, often referred to as CSN or the National Steel Company, stands as one of Brazil’s largest integrated industrial groups. Founded in 1941 and based in São Paulo, it operates across steel, mining, cement, logistics, and energy. Through its CSN Mineração subsidiary, it ranks among the world’s larger iron ore exporters while also serving as a leading integrated flat steel producer in Brazil.
The vertically integrated setup runs from iron ore extraction all the way to finished products like hot- and cold-rolled, galvanized, and pre-painted steel, plus cement, rail, port, and renewable energy assets. This breadth has helped buffer against cycles in any one area, though a sizable debt load from earlier acquisitions now sits at the center of investor attention. The American Depositary Receipts trade on the NYSE under the ticker SID, with ordinary shares listed on Brazil’s B3 as CSNA3.
Stock Performance Over the Past 30 Days and Quarter
Over the past 30 days, SID declined approximately 17%, moving from a closing level near $1.10 in late September down to roughly $0.91. The path has not been smooth, with shares advancing through early October before spiking on fresh asset-sale news and then reversing sharply, highlighting the elevated volatility in the name.
Looking back over the full quarter, the picture shows a comparable downswing of roughly 18% from about $1.12 in late July. That period featured wide swings, including a 52-week low near $0.84 in mid-August after the Fitch downgrade, a rebound toward $1.38 in early September on divestment optimism, and fresh weakness into late October. The 52-week range of roughly $0.84 to $2.20 shows how far the shares have moved from their early-2026 peak. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Pattern Search Engine to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Key Drivers Behind the Recent 30-Day Move
Several developments shaped trading in SID. On October 9, 2026, CSN disclosed a binding term sheet to sell its German long-steel operation, Stahlwerk Thüringen GmbH (SWT), to the Megasa group for an enterprise value of €550 million—another step in the divestment program aimed at reducing leverage. Reports also pointed to a binding agreement to sell the cement unit, with China’s Huaxin Cement cited as the lead bidder at a valuation of roughly R$12–14 billion.
These announcements sparked intermittent rallies, yet the gains proved fragile because the transactions have not closed. The cement sale still needs approval from Brazil’s antitrust regulator, CADE, and faces reported opposition from Holcim, a Huaxin shareholder. Until proceeds reach the balance sheet, leverage stays elevated and refinancing costs remain high. Credit rating pressure, including S&P’s downgrade to B+ with a negative outlook tied to timing and execution risks, continued to weigh on sentiment. A cautious consensus view and the stock’s history of sharp single-day moves have added to the volatility.
Quarterly Context and Broader Pressures
The quarterly decline stems from a mix of balance-sheet and credit concerns. In early August, Fitch cut CSN to CCC+, sending the ADR to a 52-week low near $0.84. CSN responded with a bond exchange in which holders representing roughly 77% of a tranche of 6.75% notes due 2028 agreed to swap into higher-coupon notes due 2030, extending maturities and easing near-term liquidity pressure.
Second-quarter results reported in mid-August showed consolidated EBITDA up about 5% year over year, supported by cement, logistics, and energy segments, but the group remained loss-making with negative free cash flow. A rebound into September reflected optimism around the divestment pipeline, particularly the cement sale and the broader R$15–18 billion deleveraging plan announced in January. However, S&P’s downgrade and the still-unclosed asset sales kept the rally from holding, leaving the shares lower over the full quarter.
What Could Shape the Next Moves
Several factors are likely to influence SID in the near term. Completion or delay of the cement divestment and the SWT sale remains the most consequential variable, with CADE’s antitrust review and any opposition from Huaxin’s shareholders key to watch. Third-quarter results, expected around early-to-mid November, will offer fresh detail on steel volumes, mining costs, and cash-flow generation.
Beyond company-specific items, investors will monitor iron ore pricing—S&P Global Ratings projects roughly $90 per ton in 2026–2027—as well as steel import competition and Brazil’s interest-rate and currency environment. Progress on the P15 mining expansion and further credit rating actions round out the list of catalysts. From what I see, these considerations remain informational rather than a forecast of returns. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to get a sense of potential momentum shifts.
My Experience with Tickeron’s AI Resources
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Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SID sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
SID saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 15, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SID as a result. In 70 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SID declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for SID entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
SID moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SID advanced for three days, in 174 of 238 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SID may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.129) is normal, around the industry mean (2.170). P/E Ratio (-0.596) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.879). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). SID's Dividend Yield (0.634) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.057). P/S Ratio (0.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SID’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SID’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
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a company which interests in the steel, mining, cement, logistics and energy sectors
Industry Steel
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