GET DAILY SIGNALSCriteo (CRTO) Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Drops 11.3% as New Channels Build Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Criteo reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $416.5 million, down 11.3% from $469.7 million a year earlier.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.43, below the roughly $0.55 consensus estimate and down sharply from $1.31 in the prior-year period.
- Contribution ex-TAC (revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs) reached $240 million, landing near the top of management's $237–$241 million guidance range.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $65 million beat guidance of $54–$58 million, though margin compressed to 27% from 36%.
- The company maintained its full-year 2026 outlook and issued fourth quarter guidance for Contribution ex-TAC of $292–$298 million.
- Newer channels — connected TV (CTV), AI platforms, and social — now account for 13% of Commerce Growth campaigns, up from 6% a year ago.
Why This Quarter Matters
Criteo S.A. (CRTO), the global commerce intelligence platform, entered this report at a pivotal moment. The company has spent 2026 navigating reduced spending from several large enterprise clients in Performance Media, alongside previously disclosed scope changes with two major Retail Media clients. These pressures had already forced guidance revisions earlier in the year, making the third quarter a key test of whether Criteo could stabilize its core business while its investments in CTV, AI platforms, and social advertising began to scale. In my view, the report offered a window into whether the company's diversification strategy is converting into commercial traction — and whether management's disciplined cost approach could protect profitability through the transition. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The Numbers at a Glance
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Criteo reported revenue of $416.5 million, down 11.3% year over year from $469.7 million. Net income fell to $5.6 million from $37.8 million a year earlier, with diluted EPS from continuing operations of $0.11 versus $0.70 in the prior-year quarter. On an adjusted basis, EPS of $0.43 missed the consensus estimate of approximately $0.55.
Contribution ex-TAC of $240 million landed near the top of the company's $237–$241 million guidance, an in-line result rather than a blowout. Adjusted EBITDA of $65 million exceeded the $54–$58 million guidance range, though management noted the beat was partly supported by a one-time bonus accrual reversal. Gross margin narrowed to 50% from 55%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 27% of Contribution ex-TAC from 36% a year ago.
Looking ahead, Criteo guided fourth quarter Contribution ex-TAC to between $292 million and $298 million, implying a 9%–11% constant-currency decline, with adjusted EBITDA of $105–$111 million. The company maintained its full-year 2026 outlook, expecting Contribution ex-TAC to decline 10%–12% at constant currency.
How the Market Responded
Investor sentiment heading into the report was already cautious, reflecting a challenging year defined by client-specific spending reductions and softer demand in certain verticals. The mixed results — an adjusted EPS miss paired with an EBITDA beat and in-line Contribution ex-TAC — framed a quarter in which stabilization and deterioration arrived together. Management's candid tone, including new Chief Financial Officer Connor McGogney's acknowledgment of a challenging year and promise of a cost-structure review, signaled that near-term recovery remains uncertain even as new-channel momentum builds. The absence of a preliminary 2027 outlook added to investor caution about the pace of any rebound. From what I see, this reaction highlights the market's focus on execution through the transition.
What to Watch Going Forward
Several forward catalysts will shape how investors evaluate Criteo in the coming quarters. The company is on track to double its CTV run rate in the fourth quarter and is expanding the offering into Brazil and Mexico by year-end, with broader international launches planned for 2027. Its OpenAI advertising integration has grown from seven to 89 countries, though management still describes ChatGPT Ads budgets as early-stage tests expected to build through 2027.
On the commercial front, Criteo's open pipeline opportunities in Performance Media rose 72% year over year, and new business spend grew 13%, with new enterprise clients expected to ramp in the fourth quarter and reach full run rate in the first half of 2027. Four of its largest retail partners renewed on multi-year terms, and auction-based display is now live with more than 95 retailers.
Offsetting these positives, foreign exchange is expected to add a greater headwind in the fourth quarter than previously guided, and launches with certain larger retailers have slipped into 2027. Investors will also watch how the company's cost-structure review unfolds, whether adjusted EBITDA margins stabilize near 30%, and how effectively new-client ramp and CTV expansion translate into a return to underlying growth in 2027. I’m watching this closely as the new channels scale.
Using AI Tools in My Analysis
When reviewing results like these, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare CRTO against peers in the ad tech space and spot patterns in performance metrics. It helps me filter for similar setups without spending hours on manual work, which keeps my process efficient while staying focused on the fundamentals that matter most.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CRTO's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for CRTO moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 39 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 59 cases where CRTO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CRTO just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where CRTO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRTO advanced for three days, in 166 of 265 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
CRTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CRTO as a result. In 62 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for CRTO entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.659) is normal, around the industry mean (0.463). P/E Ratio (7.585) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.770). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.836) is also within normal values, averaging (1.501). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.077) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.477) is also within normal values, averaging (1.860).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CRTO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CRTO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock worse than average.
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a global technology company
Industry AdvertisingMarketingServices
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