GET DAILY SIGNALSCustom Truck One Source (CTOS) Prepares for Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) reports third quarter 2026 results after the market close on Monday, October 26, 2026, followed by a conference call on Tuesday, October 27.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance in August to revenue of $2.10 billion–$2.20 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $437.5 million–$455 million.
- In the prior-year period, third quarter 2025 revenue was $482.1 million, with Adjusted EBITDA of $96.0 million and a net loss of $5.8 million.
- Rental fleet utilization reached 81.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up 400 basis points year over year, reflecting strong demand in the electric utility transmission and distribution (T&D) market.
- Net leverage improved to 3.85x at the end of the second quarter, crossing below 4.0x for the first time as the company prioritizes deleveraging.
- Data center buildout, electrification, and utility grid upgrades remain the key secular demand drivers investors will watch this quarter.
- For additional context on CTOS, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
- Discover Trending AI Robots to explore AI-driven trading ideas and signals across the market.
Why These Earnings Matter
Custom Truck One Source is one of North America's largest providers of specialty rental equipment, parts, and services to electric utility, telecommunications, rail, forestry, and other infrastructure end markets. Its quarterly results serve as a barometer for utility and infrastructure capital spending, making the report relevant beyond the company itself. CTOS has posted consecutive quarters of accelerating rental utilization and improving profitability, and in August it raised full-year guidance on the back of record second-quarter revenue of $563.4 million. Investors will be watching whether that momentum continued through the third quarter, and whether management's commentary on 2027 demand, fleet investment, and balance-sheet progress supports the current outlook. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What to Expect from the Numbers
CTOS reports under a standard December 31 fiscal year, so the upcoming release covers the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Management has not issued formal quarterly guidance, so attention centers on the company's raised full-year targets: revenue of $2.10 billion to $2.20 billion (implying 8% to 13% year-over-year growth) and Adjusted EBITDA of $437.5 million to $455 million (implying 14% to 19% growth). For reference, the company generated $482.1 million in revenue and $96.0 million in Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025.
Key metrics investors will scrutinize include rental fleet utilization, average original equipment cost (OEC) on rent, OEC on rent yield, sales order backlog, and the performance of the two reporting segments — Specialty Equipment Rentals (SER) and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing (STEM). In the second quarter, CTOS beat consensus estimates, reporting $563.4 million in revenue and earnings per share of $0.05. Analysts will be looking for evidence that rental demand and equipment sales remain resilient into the seasonally strong fourth quarter.
Investor Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Heading into the report, sentiment around CTOS has been shaped by its ability to sustain strong rental utilization and translate demand into margin expansion. The company's move to reduce net leverage below 4.0x has also resonated with investors concerned about its historically elevated debt load. Key risk factors to watch include any softening in utility or infrastructure spending, customer hesitation tied to economic uncertainty and interest rates, and pressure on the STEM segment's sales backlog, which ended the second quarter modestly below the company's targeted range of four to six months. Investors will also weigh management's comments on tariff impacts and supply-chain conditions.
What to Watch Going Forward
Beyond the headline figures, investors should focus on several forward-looking signals. First, watch rental fleet utilization and average OEC on rent — these gauges indicate whether utility and infrastructure demand remains at record levels. The company ended the second quarter with total OEC of $1.68 billion, the highest in its history, suggesting continued rental revenue capacity.
Second, monitor the STEM segment's sales order backlog and quoting activity. Backlog fell to roughly 3.5 months of trailing sales in the second quarter, but management noted that quoting activity rose 26% year over year, which could support order intake in the second half of the year.
Finally, track balance-sheet progress. CTOS has signaled a goal of bringing net leverage meaningfully below 4.0x by the end of 2026 and below 3.0x by 2027, alongside levered free cash flow of more than $50 million for the year. Commentary on fleet investment, working capital, and interest-rate exposure will be closely followed, as these factors shape the company's ability to keep funding growth while deleveraging.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
One resource I turn to regularly is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It helps filter thousands of stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, and AI-driven signals, making it easier to spot ideas and compare opportunities across sectors without spending hours on manual work. Whether tracking earnings movers or scanning for broader themes, it provides a structured starting point that complements traditional analysis.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for CTOS turns negative, indicating new downward trend
CTOS saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 71 of the 89 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CTOS turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
CTOS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CTOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
CTOS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 57 cases where CTOS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +1.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CTOS advanced for three days, in 208 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 152 of 226 cases where CTOS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CTOS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.526) is normal, around the industry mean (2.024). P/E Ratio (100.667) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.706). CTOS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.450) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.013) is also within normal values, averaging (1.703).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CTOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company, which engages in the provision of equipment parts, tools, accessories and rental services
Industry FinanceRentalLeasing
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