GET DAILY SIGNALSCVR Partners (UAN) Swings to Q3 Loss on Maintenance but Holds Distribution
Key Takeaways
- CVR Partners posted a net loss of $11 million, or $1.02 per common unit, for the third quarter of 2026, compared with net income of $43 million, or $4.08 per common unit, a year earlier.
- Net sales fell to $146 million from $164 million, while EBITDA declined to $20 million from $71 million in the prior-year period.
- A 41-day planned turnaround at the East Dubuque facility drove $26.8 million in turnaround expenses and reduced ammonia plant utilization to 80%, versus 95% a year ago.
- The board declared a cash distribution of $1.79 per common unit, payable November 23, 2026, to unitholders of record as of November 16, 2026.
- Average realized ammonia prices rose 20% year over year to $637 per ton, while urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices fell 11% to $309 per ton.
- For more details, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on CVR Partners' dedicated pages.
- Discover how AI-driven strategies are navigating fertilizer and commodity markets by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Why These Results Matter in Context
CVR Partners, LP operates as a nitrogen fertilizer producer, and its performance tends to fluctuate with crop cycles, scheduled plant maintenance, and global nitrogen pricing. As a variable distribution master limited partnership, most available cash flows back to unitholders, which puts quarterly cash generation and distribution decisions at the center of the investment thesis. This update comes as fall ammonia applications ramp up in the Corn Belt and as geopolitical factors keep nitrogen supplies relatively tight, supporting pricing for producers. Investors were focused on whether the heavy maintenance quarter would maintain the balance sheet strength and payout consistency seen in recent periods.
Details from the Reported Quarter
CVR Partners reported third quarter 2026 net sales of $146 million, down from $164 million a year earlier, along with a net loss of $11 million, or $1.02 per common unit. That compares with net income of $43 million, or $4.08 per common unit, in the third quarter of 2025. EBITDA dropped to $20 million from $71 million. Both revenue and per-unit results missed consensus estimates, which had pointed to roughly $165.4 million in revenue and positive earnings per unit. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The main driver was the 41-day planned turnaround at the East Dubuque facility, which started in late August and finished in mid-October. Turnaround expenses totaled $26.8 million versus just $1.2 million a year earlier, and ammonia plant utilization fell to 80%. Direct operating expenses reached $90 million, including about $27 million tied to the turnaround. Pricing provided a partial offset: average realized ammonia prices increased 20% to $637 per ton, while UAN prices declined 11% to $309 per ton. The partnership closed the quarter with $158 million in cash and $203 million in total liquidity.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of UAN traded lower after the release, declining roughly 4.3% to around $119.40 in premarket trading from a prior close of $124.76. The relatively contained reaction, given the swing to a loss, suggests investors largely saw the quarter as a temporary maintenance-related event rather than a fundamental change in the business. Management’s note that the turnaround finished on its revised schedule, together with the maintained $1.79 per common unit distribution, helped support sentiment. Focus has now moved to the fourth quarter, when utilization should recover and fall ammonia demand should help realized pricing.
Forward Outlook and Items to Watch
For the fourth quarter of 2026, management guided to an ammonia plant utilization rate of 88% to 93% after completing the East Dubuque turnaround. Direct operating expenses, excluding inventory and turnaround effects, are expected to total $58 million to $63 million, with turnaround expenses of $4 million to $6 million and total capital spending of $26 million to $34 million.
Looking further out, full-year 2026 capital spending is projected at $95 million to $104 million, funded partly from prior cash reserves. Investors should keep an eye on several catalysts, including testing of the brownfield ammonia capacity expansion at East Dubuque that is expected to lift production capacity by roughly 5%, and the planned 2027 construction of a feedstock optionality project at Coffeyville that could allow the plant to switch between natural gas and third-party petroleum coke. On the market side, management highlighted tight local nitrogen supply, a constructive global balance, and a solid order book into 2027. Key variables include European natural gas prices, which have risen above $30 per million British thermal units versus about $3 in the U.S., the November Tampa ammonia settlement, and any further shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Exploring AI Tools in My Research Process
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener especially helpful when evaluating cyclical names like CVR Partners against peers. The tool lets users filter on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals to surface comparable fertilizer producers and monitor sector shifts more efficiently than manual methods. It has become a regular part of how I cross-check sector positioning and identify potential trade ideas in commodity-related equities.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
UAN in +1.78% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where UAN advanced for three days, in 234 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 54 cases where UAN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UAN moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 52%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UAN as a result. In 52 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAN turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
UAN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
UAN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.801) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.403). P/E Ratio (8.230) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.767). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.450) is also within normal values, averaging (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.195) settles around the average of (0.126) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.073) is also within normal values, averaging (1.476).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UAN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of nitrogenous fertilizer
Industry ChemicalsAgricultural
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