GET DAILY SIGNALSEmbraer (EMBJ): Analyst Targets Point to +22% Upside Toward $90
Key Takeaways
- The $90 central target is the arithmetic mean of five recent, individually verifiable analyst price targets: J.P. Morgan ($104), Goldman Sachs ($90), Morgan Stanley ($90), Bank of America ($85), and Scotiabank ($81).
- At a latest verified price of about $73.60, reaching $90 implies roughly 22% upside — a substantial move rather than a routine gain.
- The individual target range spans approximately $81 to $104, and the overall rating consensus is Strong Buy; UBS stands out as the notable Hold, with an $80 target.
- Support comes from a strong second-quarter beat, raised 2026 guidance, and durable commercial-aviation and defense demand that drove a series of target increases in mid-2026.
- Key risks include tariff-related costs, supply-chain and engine constraints, Brazilian real currency swings, uneven free-cash-flow timing, and a premium valuation.
- Readers can track Major News, Today's Price Move, the Forecast, and Earnings on dedicated pages for EMBJ.
- For a broader view of AI-driven market tools, explore Trending AI Robots.
Breaking Down the Analyst Targets
The $90 figure used here is not a published consensus but a calculation — the average of the most recent individually attributable targets from major firms. J.P. Morgan's Marcelo Motta raised his target to $104 (Overweight) in mid-August 2026, while Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $90 after what it called a strong second-quarter beat and raised guidance. Bank of America's Ronald Epstein moved to $85, Scotiabank initiated coverage at $81 (Sector Outperform), and Morgan Stanley has reiterated a Buy with a target near $90. UBS, the cautious outlier, carries a Hold with an $80 target.
The spread from $81 to $104 reflects genuine disagreement about how much of Embraer's commercial and defense backlog will convert into earnings growth versus how much margin will be absorbed by tariffs and delivery-ramp costs. Broader aggregator figures vary — some services report averages closer to $90, others above $94 using wider analyst sets — but the recent major-firm targets cluster tightly around $80 to $104, with $90 a reasonable midpoint. None of these figures should be read as a guarantee. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
With EMBJ recently trading near $73.60, a move to $90 requires about 22% appreciation — a substantial step for a large-cap industrial. The path would likely require the stock to clear its prior 52-week high near $80.75, an area it has not sustained since early 2026, and then extend further on delivery growth and margin expansion. Embraer's second-quarter results beat expectations and prompted raised 2026 guidance, while first-quarter revenue had already climbed roughly 31% year over year. A sustained climb toward $90 would depend on investors continuing to reward that execution rather than pausing at the prior highs.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
Embraer's commercial-aviation business — the E-Jets E2 family — continues to benefit from strong airline demand and a large order backlog, while its defense and security segment has posted rapid growth. Services revenue adds a recurring, higher-margin layer. The mid-2026 wave of target increases from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America suggests analysts see the raised guidance as credible and the valuation as still attractive relative to growth. Continued upgrades, new orders, and margin improvement would be the clearest tailwinds.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
Tariff-related costs have already pressured profitability and were expected to rise, while supply-chain and engine constraints can delay deliveries and push revenue recognition out. The company's free cash flow turned negative in the first quarter as it built inventory ahead of a delivery ramp — a timing risk investors watch closely. Currency exposure to the Brazilian real adds volatility to dollar-denominated results, and a P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple well above the broader industrial market leaves little room for disappointment. Any guidance cut or delivery shortfall would challenge the premium.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The clearest resistance level sits near the $80–81 zone, which marks the 52-week high and roughly coincides with Scotiabank's target; a decisive break above it would be needed before the $90 objective becomes technically viable. On the downside, support has formed in the low-to-mid $60s, an area that repeatedly held through 2025 and early 2026. The $90 level itself is a psychological round number, roughly 11% above the prior peak.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of about 12 months, though individual assumptions vary. Investors should watch quarterly earnings and delivery figures, any changes to 2026 guidance, order announcements at major air shows, tariff developments, Brazilian real movements, and free-cash-flow progress. Revisions from the firms above — particularly any change to the $81–$104 range — will signal whether the consensus view of the stock is strengthening or fading.
Using AI for Daily Signals
In my own analysis process, Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals provide a practical way to monitor shifts across thousands of stocks and ETFs. The tool generates Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis, helping spot changes in trends more efficiently than manual reviews alone. For those following EMBJ and the broader aerospace sector, it serves as an additional lens alongside fundamental research.
Final Assessment
The $90 target for EMBJ is an analyst-derived average, not a forecast, requiring roughly 22% upside from the recent price near $73.60. It is supported by strong commercial and defense demand, a second-quarter beat, raised guidance, and a clear majority of Buy ratings. It is challenged by tariff costs, supply-chain frictions, cash-flow timing, currency risk, and a demanding valuation. The wide $81-to-$104 target range shows analysts disagree on how quickly execution converts into profit growth. The next meaningful signals will come from delivery data, guidance updates, and any revisions to the target range.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
EMBJ saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for EMBJ moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 47 of the 60 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EMBJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
EMBJ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EMBJ entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EMBJ as a result. In 66 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EMBJ just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where EMBJ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
EMBJ moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EMBJ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +4.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EMBJ advanced for three days, in 238 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EMBJ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.811) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (30.036) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). EMBJ's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.740) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.605) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
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General Information
a manufacturer of passenger aircrafts
Industry AerospaceDefense
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