Fastenal (FAST) vs QXO (QXO): Weighing a Stable Industrial Distributor Against an Ambitious Building-Products Roll-Up
Key Takeaways
- FAST is an established industrial distributor with strong recent momentum, rising roughly 28% year to date and trading near its 52-week high.
- QXO is an acquisitive building-products distributor in a rapid scale-up phase, with shares down more than 50% over the past six months despite sharply higher revenue.
- Fastenal's relative performance reflects consistent earnings growth and margin expansion, while QXO's story is driven by large M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and long-term revenue targets.
- The two companies have fundamentally different risk profiles: a profitable, cash-generating incumbent versus a higher-debt growth platform still posting net losses.
- On observable trend consistency and stability, the data currently tilts in FAST's favor, though QXO carries a larger potential catalyst set.
Introduction
Investors comparing a mature industrial supplier with an aggressive building-materials consolidator encounter a clear contrast in Fastenal Company (FAST) and QXO, Inc. (QXO). Fastenal brings a long track record of profitability in fasteners and industrial supplies, whereas QXO is executing a fast-paced acquisition strategy under Brad Jacobs. This comparison matters for those seeking stability as well as those evaluating higher-risk repositioning opportunities. Looking at their business models, recent results, and positioning helps show which approach may align with different strategies right now.
Fastenal's Momentum and Operations
Fastenal supplies fasteners, safety products, and tools to manufacturing and construction clients, serving as a useful indicator for industrial activity. Lately, FAST has shown solid relative strength, advancing about 28% year to date and sitting close to its 52-week high. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Its latest quarter delivered 15.5% year-over-year daily sales growth and an operating margin that widened roughly 90 basis points to 21.5%. Earnings per share climbed around 20%, helped by new key accounts, contract wins, and disciplined costs. Larger customers drove much of the growth, and the company’s Digital Footprint—managed inventory tools plus eBusiness—made up about 61% of sales. The stock trades at roughly 37 times forward earnings, so even good results can prompt some profit-taking.
QXO's Scale-Up and Recent Results
QXO operates as a technology-enabled distributor focused on roofing, waterproofing, and related building products. It has moved quickly on acquisitions, including a $2.25 billion deal for Kodiak Building Partners and an approximately $15 billion purchase of TopBuild, making it the second-largest publicly traded building-products distributor in North America. Management aims for $50 billion in annual revenue within ten years.
Despite that top-line expansion, QXO shares have fallen more than 50% over the past six months. Second-quarter net sales jumped about 70% year over year to roughly $3.25 billion. The company still reports net losses while integrating acquisitions and investing in technology and capacity, and its adjusted EBITDA margin has narrowed. Higher debt, integration work, and variable construction demand continue to influence sentiment even with the revenue gains.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The main difference comes down to maturity versus transformation. Fastenal runs a profitable, asset-light model that produces strong free cash flow, returns capital via dividends and buybacks, and carries little debt. QXO is building scale through debt-funded acquisitions, which has lifted revenue sharply but has also meant near-term losses and a heavier balance sheet.
Growth sources differ as well. Fastenal benefits from share gains, account expansion, and digital adoption in established industrial markets. QXO relies on inorganic growth through M&A plus potential synergies and cross-selling. On the risk side, Fastenal faces industrial cycles and a premium valuation, while QXO deals with execution on integrations, higher leverage, and a shorter earnings history. From what I see, Fastenal’s performance has been steadier, whereas QXO shows more volatility and divided opinions among investors.
Current AI Assessment
Based on factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and positioning, the data points toward FAST over QXO at present. Fastenal displays a more reliable upward trend, positive and expanding margins, and lower balance-sheet risk, which generally align with stability-focused signals. QXO presents bigger potential catalysts around its integration plan and long-term revenue goals, yet negative momentum and ongoing net losses create a less favorable near-term picture. This remains a probabilistic view of current conditions rather than a firm forecast.
Incorporating AI Tools in Analysis
When evaluating names like these, I often review live performance metrics and strategy types through Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots section. It provides a straightforward way to compare automated approaches across different tickers and risk profiles without overcomplicating the process.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 211 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FAST entered a downward trend on September 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.245) is normal, around the industry mean (7.841). P/E Ratio (43.162) is within average values for comparable stocks, (134.538). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
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General Information
an operator of industrial hardware supply stores
Industry ElectronicsDistributors
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