GET DAILY SIGNALSGCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Reports +16% EPS Growth and Record Carried Interest in Q3
Key Takeaways
- GCM Grosvenor reported adjusted net income per share of $0.22, up 16% year over year and ahead of the FactSet consensus estimate of $0.21.
- Total assets under management (AUM) reached $98 billion, up 13% year over year, while fee-paying AUM climbed 11% to $78 billion.
- Fee-related earnings (FRE) rose 15% to approximately $54 million, with the FRE margin expanding to 47% from 45% a year earlier.
- Fundraising totaled $2.7 billion in the quarter, bringing trailing 12-month fundraising to $10 billion, with 30% of year-to-date inflows coming from new clients.
- The firm's share of unrealized carried interest hit a record $592 million, up roughly $100 million from the prior quarter, partly reflecting a SpaceX mark.
- The Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, payable on December 15, 2026.
- For additional detail, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on Tickeron's dedicated pages for GCMG.
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Why These Results Stand Out
GCM Grosvenor provides alternative asset management solutions across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit, and absolute return strategies. As a fee-based manager, its results give a clear picture of fundraising trends, management fee growth, and the stability of recurring revenue. The third quarter came after market swings, shifting rates, and tech changes, so investors were focused on whether the firm could keep up double-digit fee-related earnings growth, turn its pipeline into future revenue, and improve margins in a tougher setting for hedge funds and private markets.
Q3 Performance in Detail
GCM Grosvenor posted total revenue of $145.55 million for the third quarter of 2026, up about 8% from a year earlier and slightly above estimates. Fee-related revenue, the main recurring line, increased 10% to $115 million, helped by a 7% rise in private markets management fees and a 19% jump in absolute return strategies management fees. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Fee-related earnings grew 15% to roughly $54 million, and the FRE margin widened to 47% from 45% a year ago, showing operating leverage and efficiency gains. Adjusted net income rose 20% to $45 million, or $0.22 per share, up 16% year over year and above the $0.21 consensus. GAAP net income increased 17% year over year.
Total AUM reached $98 billion, up 13% year over year, and fee-paying AUM climbed 11% to $78 billion. The firm's share of unrealized carried interest set a record at $592 million, supported in part by a lagged SpaceX valuation. Management noted that carried interest realizations are hard to time but sees this balance as a solid source of future earnings.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Shares of GCMG rose in early trading after the report, gaining roughly 5% to 6% for the day. The move highlighted the quality of the margin beat, as fee-related earnings growth of 15% outpaced revenue gains and the margin expansion to 47% showed operating leverage. Management sounded constructive, expecting full-year 2026 fundraising to match the record 2025 total of about $10.7 billion, which points to a strong fourth quarter. The record unrealized carried interest and positive ARS inflows supported the tone, though some investors flagged that fourth-quarter performance fees still depend on year-end conditions.
Looking Ahead: Guidance and Watchpoints
Management gave specific fourth-quarter guidance. Private markets management fees are expected to rise 7% to 9% year over year, while ARS management fees should increase in the mid-teens. Fee-related compensation and benefits are seen about $1 million higher than a year ago, with general and administrative expenses steady.
Fundraising remains the key driver. The near-term pipeline is about 20% larger than last year, and ARS is expected to post a fifth straight quarter of net inflows. The individual investor channel now accounts for 23% of year-to-date fundraising, with that AUM up about 40% year over year to $5.3 billion.
Two areas deserve attention. Realized carried interest timing is unpredictable, though the $592 million unrealized balance suggests upside. Market volatility is another factor: the ARS composite was down about 2% gross in the quarter, and October was described as difficult for hedge funds, which could affect year-end fees. Investors should also watch whether the $10.6 billion in contracted-not-yet-fee-paying AUM converts as planned.
Exploring AI-Driven Research Tools
In my own analysis process, I frequently use Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It allows me to scan thousands of names with customizable criteria and surface relevant ideas in the financial sector more efficiently than manual methods, helping refine watchlists when tracking names like GCM Grosvenor.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GCMG sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 30, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for GCMG moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 33 of the 45 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GCMG as a result. In 54 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GCMG just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where GCMG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GCMG advanced for three days, in 194 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
GCMG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
GCMG moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GCMG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for GCMG entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GCMG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GCMG's P/B Ratio (30.541) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.412). P/E Ratio (16.025) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.386). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.700) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.270) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.417) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
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