GET DAILY SIGNALSGevo (GEVO) Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Growth and EBITDA Guidance in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, November 10, after the market close, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Wall Street consensus calls for earnings per share (EPS) near $0.04 on revenue of approximately $56.25 million, versus revenue of $42.71 million in the year-ago quarter.
- The company has topped consensus EPS estimates in seven of its last eight quarters, although quarterly revenue results have been more mixed.
- Investors will focus on adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), carbon-capture volumes, and low-carbon ethanol production.
- Gevo more than doubled its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance last quarter, citing clean-fuel tax credits and Canadian regulatory approval.
- For additional context on Gevo's major news, today's price move, price targets, and forecasts, explore the dedicated pages.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Gevo is a renewable fuels and chemicals company focused on low-carbon ethanol, renewable natural gas (RNG), and sustainable aviation fuel. This quarterly report matters because it offers a fresh look at whether Gevo can sustain recent revenue growth while narrowing losses and moving toward positive operating cash flow. Last quarter, management doubled its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to more than $60 million, supported by Canada's Clean Fuel Regulations and anticipated Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credits. With shares trading well below the average analyst price target, investors are weighing execution on carbon capture and production expansion against persistent GAAP losses.
Earnings Expectations
Consensus estimates point to EPS of about $0.04 on revenue of roughly $56.25 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That revenue figure would represent growth of roughly 32% from $42.71 million reported in the same period a year earlier, when Gevo posted an EPS loss of $0.03. Revenue estimates vary by source, ranging from about $54.5 million to $60.4 million.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will track adjusted EBITDA, which has become a key measure of Gevo's operational progress. In the first quarter of 2026, adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $8.5 million from a loss of $15.4 million a year earlier, and the company guided for further improvement. Analysts will also watch carbon-capture and sequestration volumes, low-carbon ethanol output, and updates on Project North Star financing. Historically, Gevo shares have reacted sharply to results: a second-quarter 2026 EPS beat sent the stock up roughly 9.5% after hours, while a first-quarter miss drew a more muted response. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into this report has been cautiously optimistic. Gevo shares climbed roughly 13.9% on November 6 and traded near $1.38 in the days before the release, still far below an average analyst price target of about $5.05. The company's improving adjusted EBITDA trajectory and raised guidance have supported the narrative of operational progress, but the stock remains volatile and tied to sentiment around clean-fuel tax credits and carbon markets.
Key risk factors ahead of the print include the possibility of continued GAAP losses, fluctuations in ethanol and carbon-credit prices, and any shift in federal clean-fuel policy that could affect Section 45Z tax credit monetization. Financing progress on Project North Star also remains a closely watched swing factor for the longer-term growth story.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking beyond the third-quarter print, investors should watch several developments that could shape Gevo's trajectory. First is guidance: management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA target to more than $60 million, and confirmation or revision of that outlook will be a central focus of the conference call.
Second, production and carbon-capture volumes matter. Gevo has been working toward annual low-carbon ethanol capacity of roughly 75 million gallons, with carbon capture and sequestration activity at its North Dakota facility steadily rising. Continued volume growth would support both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Third, watch the financing timeline for Project North Star, the company's sustainable aviation fuel initiative. Management has shifted toward private capital rather than government-backed debt, and clarity on funding would be a meaningful catalyst.
Finally, monitor cash flow and the carbon business. Gevo has said its carbon segment is generating roughly $30 million on an annualized basis and has targeted breakeven to positive operating cash flow for the full year. Regulatory certainty around clean-fuel tax credits, along with ethanol and carbon-market pricing, will remain important swing factors.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Research
One tool I find particularly useful when preparing for earnings like this is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It helps me quickly filter stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics, making it easier to compare Gevo against peers in the clean-energy space and spot developing setups at a glance. I typically run a few custom scans ahead of reports to get additional context without spending hours on manual analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GEVO in +20.49% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where GEVO advanced for three days, in 187 of 223 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GEVO as a result. In 72 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GEVO just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where GEVO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
GEVO moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GEVO moved out of overbought territory on November 10, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEVO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
GEVO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GEVO entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.258) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-1.544) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.012) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GEVO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GEVO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which engages in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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