GET DAILY SIGNALSGraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) Performance: -11.7% Over the Past 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- NVDL declined roughly 11.7% over the last 30 days, sliding from about $36.39 to $32.15, as a sharp October pullback in NVIDIA shares was amplified by the fund's 2x daily leverage.
- Over the trailing quarter, the ETF remains up roughly 21%, reflecting a powerful late-summer rally following strong NVIDIA quarterly results.
- NVDL seeks 2x (200%) the daily percentage change of NVIDIA (NVDA) common stock and carries a net expense ratio of 1.05%.
- The fund is a concentrated single-stock product; its entire return profile is driven by NVIDIA rather than a diversified technology basket.
- Primary catalysts include AI data-center demand, hyperscaler capital spending, and rising investor concerns about the pace and financing of AI infrastructure buildouts.
- For more detail, explore NVDL's Price Targets and Forecast pages for additional analytical context.
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Overview of the NVDL ETF Structure
The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF is an actively managed, leveraged single-stock exchange-traded fund that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 200% of the daily percentage change in NVIDIA (NVDA) common stock. Launched in December 2022, the fund obtains its leveraged exposure primarily through swap agreements and options tied to NVIDIA shares, supplemented by cash and cash equivalents. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to others in the industry.
Because it is non-diversified, NVDL does not hold a broad portfolio of technology names. Its holdings consist almost entirely of NVIDIA equity swaps, with cash used as collateral. Sector exposure is effectively 100% tied to NVIDIA's semiconductor and data-center business. The fund's net expense ratio is 1.05%, and it manages several billion dollars in assets under management (AUM), which reflects the total market value of assets the fund oversees.
This structure makes NVDL a high-beta, short-term tactical instrument. The 2x multiplier compounds daily, meaning the fund amplifies both NVIDIA's gains and losses and can diverge from a simple two-times long-term return during volatile, range-bound markets. That amplification is central to understanding its recent price movement.
Recent Price Moves in NVDL: 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, NVDL fell approximately 11.7%, retreating from a close near $36.39 to roughly $32.15. The decline was not linear: the fund climbed into early October, peaking above $40, before reversing sharply and giving back much of that advance through late October. The move was trend-reversing and volatile rather than gradual, consistent with a leveraged product tracking a high-momentum underlying stock.
The longer view is notably different. Over the trailing three-month period, NVDL advanced roughly 21%, rising from a late-July close near $26.49 to its current level. This gap between the quarterly gain and the 30-day decline underscores how quickly sentiment can shift around a single, leveraged holding.
Factors Behind the 30-Day Decline
Because NVDL tracks NVIDIA (NVDA) with 2x leverage, the recent decline primarily mirrors a pullback in the underlying stock. NVIDIA set record closing highs in early October before sliding roughly 9% from that peak, which translated into a roughly double-sized drawdown for NVDL.
Several factors pressured NVIDIA. After a strong rally, investors took profits amid elevated valuation and higher bond yields, which weigh on long-duration, expensive technology shares. Concerns mounted over the sustainability and financing of AI capital spending, with commentary highlighting potential constraints on data-center construction and neocloud funding. Competitive risks also surfaced, including custom accelerators from large cloud providers and alternative silicon, as well as reported price increases from advanced-packaging suppliers that could pressure gross margins. Regulatory scrutiny of a proposed NVIDIA acquisition added further uncertainty.
The result was a sharp de-rating in sentiment despite NVIDIA's still-robust fundamentals, and NVDL's leverage mechanically amplified the downside.
Drivers of the Quarterly Gain
The quarterly gain reflects a fundamentally different backdrop. NVIDIA's most recent earnings report delivered revenue of about $96.2 billion, up roughly 106% year over year, alongside guidance for approximately $108 billion in the following quarter and commentary pointing to roughly 70% revenue growth in the next fiscal year. Management also expanded its share-repurchase authorization, reinforcing confidence in cash generation.
Broader sector rotation into AI infrastructure and data-center beneficiaries supported the advance. Hyperscaler capital-expenditure commitments, the ramp of NVIDIA's next-generation systems, and persistent demand for accelerated computing underpinned the rally. Institutional ETF flows into leveraged semiconductor products and bullish analyst positioning contributed to momentum through late summer and early autumn. That structural strength is why NVDL remains higher over the quarter even after October's sharp reversal.
NVDL ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Going forward, the key variable is NVIDIA's earnings trajectory and the durability of AI infrastructure demand. Investors should monitor NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly results for revenue growth, data-center momentum, margin guidance, and forward outlook, as any surprise will be magnified by NVDL's leverage.
Macroeconomic conditions also matter. Interest-rate expectations and inflation trends influence the valuation of high-multiple technology names, while bond-yield movements have already contributed to recent volatility. Capital flows into leveraged semiconductor products, supply-chain cost pressures, and the competitive landscape in custom accelerators will shape sentiment. Regulatory developments and any shift in hyperscaler capital-spending plans represent additional risks and potential catalysts. As always with a 2x daily-reset product, compounding effects and volatility decay can meaningfully affect returns over holding periods longer than a single day.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener for Deeper Analysis
When reviewing leveraged products like NVDL, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener. This tool helps me quickly scan for comparable momentum patterns, volatility signals, and sector peers using customizable AI-driven criteria. It streamlines the process of spotting similar setups without manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to support your own research workflow.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
NVDL's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDL moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 38 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDL as a result. In 53 of 58 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDL turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
NVDL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 44 cases where NVDL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +6.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDL advanced for three days, in 276 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
NVDL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 275 of 281 cases where NVDL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
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