GET DAILY SIGNALSGraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF (CONI) Climbs +65.5% in 30 Days on Coinbase (COIN) Weakness
Key Takeaways
- CONI, the GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF, climbed roughly 65.5% over the 30 days through mid-November, rising from about $24.82 to near $41.08.
- The advance reflects the fund's mandate: it seeks -2x the daily percentage change of Coinbase Global (COIN), and Coinbase shares fell sharply over the same stretch.
- Coinbase's decline followed a weaker-than-expected third-quarter report, a major crypto-exchange security incident, and a series of analyst downgrades and price-target cuts.
- Over the full quarter, CONI remains lower overall, down roughly 21% from about $51.71 in mid-August, after bottoming near $21 in late September.
- As a leveraged inverse ETF that resets its exposure daily, CONI is built for short-term trading and carries elevated volatility and compounding risk over longer holding periods.
- For additional context on this ticker, explore its Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF (CONI) Overview and Market Position
CONI is not an operating company but an exchange-traded fund: the GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF. Managed by GraniteShares Advisors LLC and listed on Nasdaq, the fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to -2x (negative two times, or -200%) the daily percentage change in the common stock of Coinbase Global (COIN). It began trading in September 2024. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Because it provides inverse, leveraged exposure to a single crypto-focused equity, CONI is used primarily by short-term traders and hedgers seeking to profit from, or protect against, declines in Coinbase shares. Its exposure resets daily, so multi-day returns can diverge substantially from a simple -2x of Coinbase's cumulative move due to compounding. That mechanism is central to understanding why CONI can swing so dramatically over both short and medium time horizons.
GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF (CONI) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the 30 days through mid-November, CONI rose approximately 65.5%, from a closing price of about $24.82 on October 13 to near $41.08 in recent trading. The move was driven almost entirely by the fund's inverse relationship to Coinbase, whose shares declined from about $181.79 to roughly $131.11 over the same period.
The quarterly picture is more mixed. Roughly three months earlier, in mid-August, CONI traded near $51.71. It then slid to a late-September trough near $21 (a close of $20.96 on September 21) as Coinbase rallied to a four-month high, before reversing higher through October and November. Net of the recent rebound, CONI remains down roughly 21% over the quarter, underscoring how volatile and path-dependent its returns are.
What Drove CONI Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
CONI's 30-day advance is the mirror image of a sustained pullback in Coinbase shares. The most consequential catalysts included:
- Third-quarter earnings. Coinbase reported results in late October showing net revenue down about 34% year over year to roughly $1.16 billion, below analyst expectations, triggering a sharp post-earnings selloff.
- Security incident. A reported multibillion-dollar breach at a major competing exchange added uncertainty across crypto markets and pressured crypto-linked equities.
- Analyst downgrades. Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to an underweight-equivalent rating and slashed its price target from $258 to $120, while Barclays lowered its target from $149 to $120 and Mizuho trimmed its target from $155 to $145.
Coinbase shares fell roughly 10.6% on October 30 and about 9.7% on November 5. Because CONI seeks -2x Coinbase's daily move, these down days translated into amplified gains for the fund, driving its roughly 65% rise over the period.
What Drove CONI Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
Earlier in the quarter, Coinbase rallied on renewed crypto strength and an expansion of its product strategy, including a feature allowing eligible U.S. retail investors to request IPO allocations through its app. The stock touched a four-month high above $208 on September 21, and CONI, as an inverse fund, fell toward $21.
The trend then reversed. Softer trading volumes, the third-quarter revenue miss, the security breach, and a string of downgrades pushed Coinbase lower from October into November, lifting CONI. The result is a quarter defined by two opposing phases: a sharp decline from mid-August through late September, followed by an even sharper rebound over the past month.
CONI Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Because CONI's performance is tied to Coinbase, the most important variables ahead are Coinbase's trading-volume trajectory, fourth-quarter revenue and earnings, and the direction of major crypto prices. Analysts remain divided, with some maintaining constructive ratings and targets while others warn that the earnings recovery may lag prior expectations. Any fresh security incidents, regulatory developments, or shifts in crypto sentiment could also move both Coinbase and, inversely, CONI.
For CONI specifically, investors should account for the fund's daily reset, expense ratio, and the potential for volatility decay over holding periods longer than a single day. Leveraged inverse single-stock ETFs are generally designed for short-term tactical use, and their multi-day results can differ significantly from naive expectations based on the underlying stock's cumulative move.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine
In my view, one resource that has helped me stay on top of these kinds of moves is Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine. It provides data-driven signals across a wide range of assets, allowing me to quickly compare trends in leveraged products like CONI against broader market patterns. I find it useful for identifying potential inflection points without replacing my own analysis. The tool aggregates historical performance and forward-looking indicators in a way that supports more informed short-term decisions, especially when volatility is elevated.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for CONI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CONI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 41 of the 44 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
CONI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CONI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 6 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +22.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CONI advanced for three days, in 125 of 140 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 50 of 56 cases where CONI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CONI moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 11 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 11 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CONI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
CONI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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