GET DAILY SIGNALSGreat Southern Bancorp (GSBC) Delivers Adjusted Earnings Beat in Q3 Despite Accounting Charge
Key Takeaways
- Great Southern Bancorp reported preliminary net income of $14.0 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, down from $1.56 per share a year earlier.
- Results were reduced by a non-cash cash flow hedge accounting adjustment of roughly $2.5 million after tax, or about $0.23 per diluted share.
- Excluding that adjustment, net income was $16.5 million, or $1.50 per diluted share, above the consensus estimate of approximately $1.39.
- Net interest margin (NIM) held firm at 3.75%, up from 3.72% a year earlier, while net interest income slipped about 1% to $50.3 million.
- Asset quality remained strong, with non-performing assets at just 0.18% of total assets.
- The company completed a banking-center consolidation and announced a new one-million-share repurchase authorization.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) serves as the holding company for Great Southern Bank, a regional lender based in Missouri. The third-quarter update is notable because it shows how effectively the bank can maintain profitability in a competitive lending market with rising funding costs and shifting interest rates. A sizable non-cash hedge accounting charge tied to interest rate swaps added complexity to the headline numbers. From what I see, investors are focused on whether underlying trends in net interest margin, expense management, loan growth, and credit quality hold steady once the accounting item is set aside, and whether recent cost-cutting steps start to show through in lower expenses ahead.
Reported Results
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, Great Southern Bancorp posted preliminary net income of $14.0 million, or $1.27 per diluted common share, versus $17.8 million, or $1.56 per diluted share, in the same quarter last year. The drop stemmed mainly from a non-cash cash flow hedge accounting adjustment of roughly $3.3 million before tax, or about $2.5 million after tax ($0.23 per diluted share). Stripping out that item left net income at $16.5 million, or $1.50 per diluted share.
Net interest income fell 1.0% to $50.3 million from $50.8 million a year earlier, partly because of the absence of about $2.0 million in quarterly interest income from a terminated interest rate swap. The net interest margin came in at 3.75%, compared with 3.72% in the prior-year period and 3.76% in the second quarter of 2026. Non-interest expense totaled $36.3 million. The efficiency ratio stood at 67.57% on a reported basis and improved to 63.68% when excluding the hedge adjustment. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Asset quality stayed solid, with total non-performing assets at $10.5 million, or 0.18% of total assets, and net charge-offs of just $397,000. Total net loans declined to $4.25 billion, down about 2.5% from the end of 2025, as higher payoffs in commercial real estate and multi-family loans outpaced new originations.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Great Southern Bancorp has a solid history of surpassing consensus earnings estimates, and the third quarter extended that pattern on an adjusted basis. Although the reported $1.27 per share fell short of the roughly $1.39 consensus, the non-GAAP figure of $1.50 per share cleared expectations once the hedge adjustment was removed. This contrast highlights the value of looking beyond non-cash items. Management noted that the $3.5 million charge should be recovered fully through interest income over the remaining life of the redesignated swaps through early 2028. In my view, investors will balance the strength of the core franchise—stable net interest margin, strong credit quality, and expense discipline—against near-term pressures from lower loan balances and narrower spreads on new securities purchases.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Several elements will influence sentiment toward Great Southern Bancorp going forward. The bank expects efficiency gains from consolidating nine banking centers and cutting 66 positions to reduce the non-interest expense run-rate starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, adding more than $2 million in annual pre-tax income. The balance sheet is also evolving: the bank bought about $400 million in fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations, funded largely by short-term Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings. While this supports net interest income, management anticipates a modest drag on the overall net interest margin from the narrower spread on the transaction. Loan growth remains important as well. Period-end balances declined amid elevated borrower repayments, yet the pipeline of unfunded commitments, including $641 million in construction commitments, stayed healthy. Finally, attention will turn to capital deployment via the new one-million-share repurchase authorization and any interest-rate shifts that could affect the securities portfolio and swap values.
Exploring Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
When reviewing regional banks like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare performance across peers and spot emerging patterns in fundamentals or technicals. The tool lets me apply filters for industry, volatility, and AI signals, which helps surface relevant ideas more quickly than manual reviews alone. It has become a regular part of my process for staying organized on sector trends.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GSBC's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for GSBC entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 131 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 87 of the 131 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GSBC as a result. In 50 of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
GSBC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GSBC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSBC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 59 cases where GSBC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSBC just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSBC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSBC advanced for three days, in 148 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GSBC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.326) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (12.863) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.922) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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