GET DAILY SIGNALSHagerty (HGTY) Delivers Q3 Earnings Beat and Raises Full-Year Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Hagerty reported third quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $0.10 per share, comfortably ahead of the $0.01 consensus estimate.
- Revenue came in at $354.24 million, topping the $338.85 million analyst forecast and marking a 15th straight quarter of meeting or beating expectations.
- Written premium — a measure of new insurance business — rose 16% year over year to $386 million, while earned premium climbed 42% to $265 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $97 million, pushing year-to-date adjusted EBITDA up 43% to $257 million.
- Management raised its full-year 2026 outlook to GAAP net income of $48 million to $60 million and adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Hagerty's third quarter results carry weight because they capture the peak of the North American driving season, when collector-car enthusiasts are most active. The report also offered the first clear read on how the company's evolving relationship with Markel and its State Farm partnership are reshaping the income statement. Investors have been watching whether Hagerty's shift to controlling 100% of its underwriting risk can translate into sustainable profitability gains, and whether its expansion beyond insurance — into auctions, membership, and media — can keep fueling member growth. Coming off strong prior quarters, this release tested whether the company's momentum could hold while it integrates a larger book of risk. I also checked this using Tickeron's AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
Hagerty posted adjusted earnings of $0.10 per share for the third quarter of 2026, beating the $0.01 consensus estimate by $0.09. Revenue totaled $354.24 million, above the $338.85 million analysts expected. On a GAAP basis, net income was $36 million for the quarter, bringing year-to-date net income to $32 million.
Written premium increased 16% year over year to $386 million, driven primarily by policy count rather than rate increases. Earned premium grew 42% to $265 million, reflecting written premium gains plus Hagerty's increased quota share. HGTY's combined ratio was 85.2% for the first nine months, aided by $32 million of lower estimated losses. Adjusted EBITDA reached $97 million in the quarter. From what I see, these numbers reflect solid execution across both insurance and non-insurance segments.
Management also raised its full-year guidance, now expecting GAAP net income of $48 million to $60 million and adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, citing year-to-date outperformance and sustained business momentum.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of HGTY moved higher following the release, reflecting investor approval of both the earnings beat and the improved outlook. The stock climbed toward the upper end of its 52-week range in early trading, signaling that the market viewed the stronger guidance as more meaningful than the single-quarter EPS surprise. Sentiment entering the report had been generally positive, supported by consistent premium growth and a track record of meeting or beating expectations. The combination of a larger-than-expected profit beat, robust written premium momentum, and an upwardly revised profit outlook reinforced confidence in the company's long-term growth story, even as some investors noted that a portion of 2026's benefit stems from a one-time accounting tailwind that will not repeat next year.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether Hagerty can sustain its double-digit written premium growth while the broader personal auto insurance market softens. Management indicated that full-year written premium growth should land at the high end of its 16% to 17% range, though the fourth quarter is typically seasonally slower for new business.
One important nuance to monitor is the roughly $52 million benefit from capitalizing acquisition costs in 2026 — a timing effect that is largely complete and will not repeat in 2027. That means next year's profit bridge will begin from a lower base, and analysts will be watching how organic underwriting performance fills the gap.
Additional factors worth tracking include the continued rollout of State Farm conversions, the integration of the Bennetts motorcycle brokerage acquisition in the U.K., and Broad Arrow auction sales, which have grown sharply but can swing based on inventory levels and high-end collector-car pricing. Management has also flagged that collector-car values have risen sharply, raising the possibility of moderation in some segments. Claims trends, retention rates, and the company's investments in AI and distribution will all help determine whether margin expansion continues into 2027. I’m watching this closely as the company navigates these dynamics.
Using Tickeron Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my view, tools like Tickeron's AI Screener have become a regular part of my process for evaluating specialty insurers. It lets me quickly filter for technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics across the property and casualty sector, helping surface comparable names and trends that might otherwise take hours to review manually. For someone following HGTY or similar companies, it provides a systematic way to cross-check momentum and peer positioning without relying solely on traditional screens.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HGTY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HGTY turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where HGTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HGTY as a result. In 63 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +9.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HGTY advanced for three days, in 206 of 272 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 123 of 183 cases where HGTY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HGTY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
HGTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HGTY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.210) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.452). HGTY's P/E Ratio (93.471) is considerably higher than the industry average of (9.201). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.252) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. HGTY's P/S Ratio (3.458) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.594).
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance
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