HGTY stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Hagerty Inc is a provider of specialty automotive insurance... Show more
Hagerty Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis: Earnings Beat Fuels Premium Growth Debate
Key Takeaways
- Hagerty reported full-year 2025 revenue growth of 17% to $1.456 billion, with net income surging 91% to $149 million.
- Q4 2025 earnings and revenue beat estimates, driving shares higher in recent sessions amid mixed 2026 guidance.
- Written premiums rose 14% in 2025, with 15-16% growth outlook for 2026 tied to Markel fronting shift and partnerships.
- Marketplace revenue exploded 119%, fueled by auctions and Europe expansion, bolstering non-insurance diversification.
- Analysts maintain moderate buy rating with $14 average target, implying ~17% upside from current levels.
Current Market Snapshot
Hagerty Inc. (HGTY) stock has navigated volatile trading in recent weeks, reflecting robust operational momentum tempered by transitional accounting changes ahead. Shares have fluctuated within a 52-week range of $8.03 to $14.00, with year-to-date performance showing modest pressure amid broader market rotations. Trading volume has picked up around earnings releases, underscoring investor focus on the company's insurance dominance and marketplace expansion. Fundamentals remain solid, with a market cap near $4.1 billion, PE ratio around 40, and EPS of $0.30 trailing twelve months. Price action links closely to beats on earnings and premium growth, positioning HGTY as a niche leader in collector vehicle insurance amid enthusiast demand resilience.
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Recent Developments Driving HGTY Price Action
Hagerty Inc. (HGTY) has seen heightened volatility tied to a flurry of operational updates and financial disclosures over the past 30 days, with shares reacting sharply to earnings strength offset by guidance nuances. On February 26, 2026, the company released full-year 2025 results, posting total revenue of $1.456 billion, up 17% year-over-year, driven by 14% written premium growth to $1.194 billion and explosive 119% marketplace revenue surge to $119 million from private sales and European auction expansion. Net income nearly doubled to $149 million, or $0.37 diluted EPS, while Adjusted EBITDA climbed 46% to $237 million. Q4 alone delivered $357 million revenue (up 19%), $0.08 non-GAAP EPS beating estimates by $0.05, and a favorable 31.4% loss ratio aided by $21 million reserve reductions. These beats propelled shares up over 2% intraday, rewarding focus on insurance profitability (Hagerty Re combined ratio of 86.6%) and record 371,000 new members, pushing policies in force to 1.68 million and Hagerty Drivers Club paid members to 930,000.
Strategic moves amplified sentiment. The February 10 debut of Hagerty Channel on Prime Video enhances enthusiast engagement, while executive promotions—Marc Burns to CMO and Matt Teshera as SVP Marketing—signal marketing push. Broad Arrow Auctions, Hagerty's marketplace arm, generated buzz with high-profile lots like a single-owner Nero Ferrari Enzo and Lamborghini Miura SV for the Amelia Concours (February 24-25 announcements), plus official partnership for The Quail Motorsports Gathering (February 18). These underscore marketplace momentum, with prior Global Icons auction success (early February) highlighting collector demand.
Forward guidance introduced caution: 2026 written premiums eyed at 15-16% growth ($1.373-$1.385 billion), but total revenue flat to down 11-12% ($1.28-$1.30 billion) due to a new 100% quota share Markel fronting deal eliminating $437 million in prior commissions (net $93 million revenue hit). This triggers ~$190 million non-cash transitional amortization, projecting net loss of $41-51 million but steady Adjusted EBITDA ($236-247 million). Partnerships with State Farm (ramping conversions) and new Liberty Mutual deal for enhanced coverage bolster long-term policies toward 3 million by 2030. Analyst notes, like JP Morgan's Neutral with $13 target (January 7), reflect balanced views. Overall, price dips pre-earnings reflected caution, but beats and premium outlook spurred recovery, linking gains to execution on reinsurance shift and distribution growth amid stable loss trends.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Hagerty enters 2026 with sustained written premium expansion targeted at 15-16%, propelled by the Markel fronting evolution retaining full premium and risk control, alongside State Farm conversions accessing 500,000+ vehicles and the fresh Liberty Mutual partnership distributing collectible coverage via Safeco agents. Enthusiast Plus tier growth, B2B channels, and claims/technology upgrades like Duck Creek migration aim to scale toward 3 million policies in force by 2030. Marketplace trajectory bears watching, with Broad Arrow auctions and private sales leveraging Europe foothold amid resilient collector asset values.
Risks include transitional noise from $190 million deferred commission amortization curbing GAAP net income, heightened underwriting exposure to catastrophes/volatility absent prior quota shares, and reinsurance dependencies. Macro pressures—recession signals, inflation on repair costs, interest rates impacting valuations—could pressure claims frequency/severity. Regulatory scrutiny in insurance expansion, competitive inroads from generalists, and tech disruptions loom. Opportunities hinge on membership retention (near 89%), loss ratio discipline below 40%, and Adjusted EBITDA stability signaling cash flow acceleration post-transition. Investors should track quarterly premium traction, partnership ramps, auction volumes, and combined ratio for signs of compounding growth in the $15 billion collector insurance market.
Disclaimer
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HGTY in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on May 18, 2026
HGTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 42 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 55 cases where HGTY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HGTY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for HGTY entered a downward trend on May 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HGTY as a result. In of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HGTY just turned positive on June 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where HGTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
HGTY moved above its 50-day moving average on June 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HGTY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HGTY advanced for three days, in of 263 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HGTY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: HGTY's P/B Ratio (5.045) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.933). HGTY has a moderately high P/E Ratio (45.167) as compared to the industry average of (15.345). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.233) is also within normal values, averaging (5.121). HGTY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (2.151) is also within normal values, averaging (1.434).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HGTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance