GET DAILY SIGNALSHarmony Biosciences (HRMY) Q3 2026: +12% WAKIX Revenue Growth Amid Rising Royalty Costs
Key Takeaways
- Harmony Biosciences reported third-quarter 2026 WAKIX net revenue of $268.9 million, up 12% year over year but slightly below consensus estimates.
- GAAP diluted EPS came in at $0.81, down from $0.87 a year ago and below the consensus of roughly $1.10.
- Cost of product sold climbed to 30% of net revenue, up from 25% a year earlier, driven by new royalty obligations that pressured gross margins.
- Demand remained healthy, with the average number of patients on WAKIX rising by about 400 to 9,350 during the quarter.
- Management reiterated full-year 2026 WAKIX net revenue guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.
- Preliminary multiple-ascending dose (MAD) data for the BP-205 orexin-2 receptor agonist reinforced a favorable safety and tolerability profile.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Harmony Biosciences is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company built around WAKIX (pitolisant), the only non-scheduled treatment approved for excessive daytime sleepiness and cataplexy in adult and pediatric patients with narcolepsy. The third quarter matters because it tests whether the company can sustain top-line growth while absorbing structurally higher royalty costs tied to its licensing agreements. Heading into the print, investors were also watching the BP-205 pipeline program and a planned CEO transition to Peter Anastasiou effective January 1, 2027. The results highlight a franchise that continues to grow, even as the economics of each additional revenue dollar have become less favorable. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how HRMY compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Harmony Biosciences reported WAKIX net revenue of $268.9 million, a 12% increase from $239.5 million in the prior-year period. The figure came in modestly below consensus estimates of roughly $273 million to $275 million. Net income was $48.2 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, compared with $50.9 million, or $0.87 per diluted share, a year earlier. Diluted EPS fell short of the consensus expectation of approximately $1.10.
The earnings shortfall was driven primarily by costs rather than demand. Cost of product sold rose to $80.7 million, or 30% of net revenue, up from $59.7 million, or 25%, a year ago, reflecting new royalties under the Novitium license agreement. A milestone charge tied to the MSN license also lifted research and development expenses. On the demand side, the average number of patients on WAKIX increased by roughly 400 to about 9,350, and management reiterated full-year 2026 WAKIX net revenue guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
HRMY shares traded lower following the report, with the stock down roughly 6% to 7% on the day as investors weighed the EPS and revenue miss against the company’s reiterated guidance and pipeline progress. The reaction reflected concern that rising royalty obligations and milestone charges are compressing margins, even as WAKIX demand remains solid. Commentary from the earnings call emphasized that a roughly 30% cost-of-product-sold ratio is expected to be the go-forward run rate, while a pending legal ruling in the ANDA litigation and the anticipated launch of a competing orexin agonist added to investor caution.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The central question for Harmony Biosciences is whether WAKIX can continue funding a maturing pipeline even as royalty costs reshape the income statement. Management has reaffirmed its goal of exceeding $1 billion in net sales in 2026, but the fourth-quarter implied range of roughly $254 million to $294 million leaves limited room for upside relative to the third quarter’s result.
Several catalysts will shape the narrative over the coming quarters. The FDA has set a PDUFA date of April 1, 2027, for the pitolisant GR new drug application, with a potential launch in the first half of 2027. Phase 3 topline data for pitolisant HD is expected in 2027.
On the pipeline front, investors will watch for Phase 1b data for BP-205 in sleep-deprived healthy volunteers, expected in the first quarter of 2027, followed by planned Phase 2 studies across multiple CNS indications by mid-2027. The February 2027 patent ruling in the ANDA litigation also represents a meaningful near-term event for WAKIX exclusivity. Finally, the January 1, 2027, transition to new CEO Peter Anastasiou could influence strategic direction, including the company’s stated appetite for business development.
Exploring AI Tools for Portfolio Insights
In my own work, I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener useful for quickly filtering names like HRMY against peers using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It helps surface comparable opportunities without spending hours on manual screens, which is especially handy when tracking sector moves after earnings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HRMY's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for HRMY moved out of oversold territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 27 of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HRMY just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where HRMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +0.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HRMY advanced for three days, in 206 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
HRMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 49 of 60 cases where HRMY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HRMY as a result. In 73 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
HRMY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HRMY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HRMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for HRMY entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HRMY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.006) is normal, around the industry mean (3.051). P/E Ratio (10.995) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.872). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (125.677) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.581) is also within normal values, averaging (439.647).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HRMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
What is the role of asset allocation in my investments?
What is Lifetime Cost?
Top 5 AI Trading Bots for Strategic Investment and Navigating Market Volatility
AI Trading Agents (TSLA, GOOG, WMT): Outperforming Buy and Hold
FAQ: How is the 'distance to target' calculated in trend prediction engine (TPE)?
General Information
a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of neurological disorders
Industry Biotechnology
Advertisement