GET DAILY SIGNALSHarmony Gold Mining (HMY) Delivers Record FY2026 Results with +34% Revenue Increase
Key Takeaways
- Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) reported record results for fiscal 2026 (FY2026), the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue up 34% to R99.2 billion (about US$5.9 billion).
- Headline earnings per share (HEPS), a South African measure that strips out one-off items, surged 87% to 4,363 SA cents, while net profit rose 102% to roughly R30 billion.
- Gold production of 1.43 million ounces met guidance for an 11th consecutive year, despite a 3% year-on-year decline.
- The newly acquired CSA copper mine contributed 18,207 tonnes of copper at a C1 cash cost of US$2.47 per pound, all within guidance.
- Record adjusted free cash flow of R17 billion supported a final dividend of 750 SA cents per share, lifting the full-year payout to a record 1,280 SA cents.
Placing the Results in Context
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) ended fiscal 2026 in a noticeably stronger position than it started. The period featured a 35% rise in the average gold price received and the company’s shift toward a diversified gold-and-copper producer after acquiring MAC Copper and adding Australia’s CSA mine. These outcomes matter because they show whether Harmony can turn higher commodity prices into lasting earnings and cash flow while managing elevated costs and integrating a sizable acquisition. With gold output easing modestly and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) climbing 13%, the report also provides insight into operational discipline and margin growth near the peak of the gold-price cycle. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The Reported Numbers
Harmony posted FY2026 revenue of R99,238 million (US$5,876 million), a 34% increase from R73,896 million the prior year, supported by an average gold price of US$3,811 per ounce and the initial contribution from copper sales. Net profit more than doubled to approximately R30 billion, while headline earnings advanced 87% to R27,238 million. Basic earnings per share rose to 4,701 SA cents (278 US cents), and headline EPS reached 4,363 SA cents (258 US cents), up from 2,337 SA cents. Gold production slipped 3% to 1.43 million ounces (44,464 kilograms) yet remained within guidance for the 11th straight year. All-in sustaining costs increased 13% to US$2,195 per ounce, although the stronger gold price expanded the AISC margin to 42% from 31%. The CSA mine delivered 18,207 tonnes of copper at a recovered grade of 3.75% and a C1 cash cost of US$2.47 per pound, inside guidance. Record adjusted free cash flow of R17 billion backed a final dividend of 750 SA cents per share. From what I see, these figures highlight solid conversion of higher prices into shareholder returns.
Market Response and Investor Views
Investors reacted positively to the 87% headline EPS gain, the record dividend, and robust cash generation, which demonstrated Harmony’s capacity to return capital while supporting growth. At the same time, the 3% drop in gold output and 13% rise in AISC underscored ongoing cost pressures across the sector even with record gold prices. A gold hedge loss of R9.6 billion and acquisition-related expenses drew some attention, though these were partly offset by a R2.8 billion impairment reversal at South African operations. Net debt stayed low at R852 million, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of just 0.02 times, underscoring balance-sheet strength that enabled the increased payout. I’m watching this closely as it reflects both the benefits of higher prices and the need for continued operational focus.
Looking Ahead and Areas to Watch
Going forward, attention centers on whether Harmony can maintain margin expansion and cash generation while integrating copper operations. Management outlined plans to grow CSA copper output toward 40,000 tonnes through ventilation and development work, an important milestone to monitor. The Eva Copper project remains a key growth driver, with construction progressing toward first copper expected in 2028. Regulatory and environmental approvals, including matters related to an endangered species, will be followed closely since delays could affect timelines and spending. Cost discipline stays relevant as well. Operating costs excluding CSA and royalties rose 7%, below the targeted 10% mining inflation rate, yet sustained pressure on labor, electricity, and supplies could influence future AISC guidance. Finally, the path of gold and copper prices will shape earnings, while the updated dividend policy—targeting up to 50% of net free cash flow—will be watched for its balance between returns and growth investments. These elements together will determine Harmony’s progress as a more diversified producer.
Exploring AI Tools in Research
I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing earnings like these. The tool helps filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, and volatility, allowing quicker identification of comparable names and potential ideas during earnings season. It serves as a practical step in building a broader view without replacing individual analysis.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HMY in -10.58% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where HMY declined for three days, in 217 of 281 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HMY as a result. In 59 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for HMY entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HMY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 63 cases where HMY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HMY just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where HMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Following a +2.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HMY advanced for three days, in 213 of 268 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
HMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.224) is normal, around the industry mean (1.934). P/E Ratio (0.628) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-13.500). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.096) settles around the average of (0.333) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.996) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. HMY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company which engages in gold mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction and processing
Industry PreciousMetals
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