GET DAILY SIGNALSHormel Foods (HRL) Could See +17.5% Upside to Reach $25 Analyst Target
Key Takeaways
- The central $25 target is the arithmetic mean of the most recent individual analyst price targets, which average roughly $25 and range from $23 to $29.
- At a latest price near $21.28, reaching $25 would require an upside move of about 17.5%, a modest but meaningful climb.
- Coverage skews cautious: most analysts rate HRL a Hold, with Barclays (Overweight) and Goldman Sachs (Buy) carrying the more bullish targets.
- Supporting factors include a roughly 5.5% dividend yield, a low forward P/E, and an earnings recovery underway, while weak retail volumes and margin pressure remain key risks.
- The stock trades well below its 52-week high near $26.60, so the target sits inside the range the shares have already traveled in the past year.
- For more detail on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings, explore the dedicated pages for each.
- Investors can also explore Trending AI Robots to see AI-driven strategies tracking stocks and ETFs in real time.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Hormel Foods Corporation is a stock, not an exchange-traded fund, and it carries active sell-side coverage. Averaging the most recent targets from seven firms — Barclays at $28 (Oct 14), Goldman Sachs at $29 (Oct 2), Piper Sandler at $26 (Oct 6), Bank of America at $24, BNP Paribas Exane at $23, JPMorgan at $23, and Stephens at $23 — produces a mean near $25.1, which rounds to a $25 central target. The low-to-high spread is $23 to $29, a relatively narrow band that reflects a subdued-growth outlook rather than deep disagreement.
Sentiment is decidedly balanced-to-cautious. Barclays (Overweight) and Goldman Sachs (Buy) argue the stock is inexpensive and that margin recovery is underway, while the Hold-rated majority points to persistent volume softness. Recent revisions have leaned lower: Barclays trimmed its target from $30 to $28, BNP Paribas Exane cut from $26 to $23, and JPMorgan earlier downgraded the shares to Neutral from Overweight. No sell ratings are prominent in current coverage. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Hormel Foods, the maker of brands including Spam, Jennie-O, Planters, Skippy, and Applegate, recently traded near $21.28, giving it a market value of roughly $11.7 billion. Reaching $25 implies about 17.5% upside — a modest move for a low-beta consumer staples name that has already traded as high as $26.60 over the past year. The shares carry a trailing P/E near 34 but a far lower forward P/E of roughly 14, reflecting expectations that earnings will rebound as cost pressures ease.
The path toward the target likely runs through earnings recovery rather than multiple expansion. In its most recent quarter, adjusted EPS rose about 6% and the company tightened its EPS guidance, even as organic sales slipped about 2% and retail volumes declined. Consensus forecasts call for EPS near $1.48 in fiscal 2026 and about $1.57 in fiscal 2027, implying a modest single-digit growth trajectory that would need to hold steady to support a move back toward $25.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Income appeal: a dividend near $1.17 per share yields roughly 5.5%, an unusually rich payout that can attract yield-seeking investors if Treasury yields stabilize or fall.
- Attractive valuation: a forward P/E near 14 is below many packaged-food peers, giving the shares room to re-rate if earnings visibility improves.
- Margin recovery: management's cost-savings program, improving turkey supply, and easing input costs are lifting profitability even amid flat-to-lower sales.
- Brand execution: stabilization in the Planters business and international growth, particularly in China, are recurring themes in bullish commentary.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Volume weakness: declining retail volumes and soft organic sales have capped the stock despite better margins.
- Commodity volatility: swings in turkey and pork costs can quickly reverse margin gains, a recurring risk for a protein-heavy portfolio.
- Slow growth: projected EPS growth in the low-to-mid single digits gives analysts little reason to assign a premium multiple.
- Defensive rotation risk: if investors rotate back toward higher-growth sectors, a slow-and-steady staples name could lag even without bad news.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The shares have been building a base after a long decline. The 52-week range spans roughly $18.96 to $26.60, with the low established in 2026 and recent action recovering from the mid-to-high teens toward the low $20s. The $19-to-$20 zone has acted as a meaningful support area, while the prior high near $26.60 stands as the nearest major resistance. A move to $25 would sit just below that resistance level, meaning the stock would need to absorb selling pressure from investors who bought at higher prices before any sustained breakout. From what I see, the AI Real Time Patterns tool highlights similar base-building setups in the sector.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, and these appear consistent with that convention, though individual firms do not always publish explicit timeframes. The next major catalyst is the company's earnings report, expected around early December 2026, where investors will watch organic sales trends, retail volume, margin progress, and any update to fiscal guidance. Also relevant are input-cost developments, dividend announcements, analyst target revisions, and broader moves in interest rates, which influence the relative appeal of a 5.5%-yielding stock.
AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
In my research, I often turn to Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals for a more dynamic view than a 12-month price target. The platform uses artificial intelligence to continuously monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on changing market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis. Traders can use these signals to discover new opportunities, monitor existing positions, and spot shifting trends more efficiently than manual screening allows. Explore the signals to see how AI reads the current tape for HRL and the broader market.
Final Assessment
Can Hormel Foods reach $25? The target is grounded in real analyst work — a mean of roughly $25 across current individual targets that span $23 to $29 — and it sits about 17.5% above the latest price. The stock already traded above $26 within the past year, so the objective is not a stretch on a technical basis. Support comes from a high dividend yield, a low forward multiple, and an earnings recovery that is lifting margins. The main obstacles are persistent retail volume declines, commodity-cost volatility, and a growth profile that keeps most analysts at Hold. Whether the shares reach $25 will depend most on upcoming earnings, guidance, and whether margin gains finally translate into firmer top-line performance. As with any price target, the figure represents analyst expectations, not a guarantee, and it should be weighed alongside an investor's own research and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
I’m a trader and independent researcher. My interest lies at the intersection of financial markets, algorithms, and capital management. I develop data-driven tools and strategies and study algorithmic approaches to market analysis. I help turn complex market data into clear insights and practical systems. I believe technology should support, not replace, investment thinking
HRL sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for HRL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HRL moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 62 cases where HRL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HRL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
HRL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HRL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HRL as a result. In 40 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HRL just turned positive on September 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where HRL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
HRL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HRL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +3.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HRL advanced for three days, in 133 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HRL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.493) is normal, around the industry mean (7.678). HRL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (34.323) as compared to the industry average of (6.461). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.405) is also within normal values, averaging (8.458). Dividend Yield (0.055) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.942) is also within normal values, averaging (5.003).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HRL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of meat products and other prepared foods
Industry FoodMajorDiversified
Advertisement