GET DAILY SIGNALSIntercontinental Exchange (ICE) Delivers Record Q3 with +15% Revenue Growth and +18% EPS Rise
Key Takeaways
- Intercontinental Exchange posted third quarter 2026 net revenues of $2.8 billion, up 15% year over year, marking the best third quarter in the company's history.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 18% to $2.02, while generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) diluted EPS increased 18% to $1.67.
- The Exchanges segment led growth with $1.54 billion in net revenues (+22%), supported by strength across energy, interest rates, and agricultural and metals markets.
- Fixed Income and Data Services reached a record $674 million (+9%), while Mortgage Technology revenue grew 4% to $549 million despite elevated mortgage rates.
- Results beat consensus expectations, with adjusted EPS of $2.02 above the $1.97 estimate and revenue ahead of the roughly $2.74 billion consensus.
- Following Department of Justice approval, ICE now expects its MarketAxess acquisition to close in the first quarter of 2027, earlier than its prior first-half timeline.
- For additional detail on this ticker, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
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Why This Quarter Matters
Intercontinental Exchange operates a diversified global market infrastructure business spanning the New York Stock Exchange, leading derivatives and energy markets, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology platforms. This third quarter report matters because it tests whether ICE can sustain the double-digit growth it has delivered through 2026 while integrating major acquisitions and managing elevated interest rates that have pressured mortgage origination. Coming off a record first half, investors were watching whether transaction revenues could keep compounding alongside ICE's recurring, subscription-style data streams. The results also carry strategic weight: the quarter coincided with regulatory clearance for ICE's MarketAxess acquisition, a transaction that reshapes its fixed income footprint.
The Reported Numbers
ICE reported third quarter 2026 consolidated net revenues of $2.8 billion, a 15% increase from $2.4 billion a year earlier. Consolidated operating income rose 20% to $1.4 billion, with an operating margin of 51%. On an adjusted basis, operating income increased 19% to $1.7 billion and the adjusted operating margin expanded to 61%. Diluted EPS attributable to ICE common stockholders was $1.67 on a GAAP basis, up 18%, while adjusted diluted EPS rose 18% to $2.02. Recurring revenues reached a record $1.4 billion (+7%), and net transaction revenues climbed 23% to $1.4 billion. The Exchanges segment generated $1.54 billion in net revenues (+22%), with energy up 26%, financials up 37%, and agriculture and metals up 62%. Fixed Income and Data Services grew 9% to $674 million, while Mortgage Technology rose 4% to $549 million, with servicing software and data and analytics each up 6%. Results modestly exceeded Wall Street estimates. Adjusted EPS of $2.02 came in about 2.5% above the consensus of $1.97, and revenue of roughly $2.8 billion beat the approximately $2.74 billion estimate by about 2%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
ICE shares rose roughly 4% in the immediate aftermath of the release, reflecting a broadly positive response to the record results and the raised full-year outlook. Investors appeared to focus on the resilience of recurring revenues, the double-digit growth in transaction activity across exchanges, and the earlier-than-expected timeline for the MarketAxess close. The mortgage technology segment's profitability, where the adjusted operating margin narrowed to 40% from 42% due to higher operating expenses, drew some scrutiny, but this was largely offset by strength in the higher-margin exchanges and data businesses. Sentiment heading into the print had already turned constructive, with analysts revising estimates upward in the months prior, and the beat reinforced that optimism.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
ICE raised its full-year 2026 guidance, now expecting approximately 9% growth in exchange recurring revenue and roughly 8% growth in Fixed Income and Data Services recurring revenue. Management also lifted its full-year capital expenditure outlook to about $1.05 billion, partly reflecting the planned fourth-quarter purchase of a new campus in Atlanta and additional data center and real estate spending. Investors should watch several factors in the quarters ahead. The MarketAxess acquisition is now expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, and its integration, financing costs, and deleveraging trajectory will be closely monitored, given the roughly $23.3 billion in outstanding debt at quarter-end. Management has indicated it will continue returning capital to shareholders alongside its deleveraging plan. Elevated mortgage rates remain a headwind for origination technology, though servicing software and data and analytics have provided a defensive recurring revenue base. Meanwhile, energy market volatility, open interest trends, and continued demand for low-latency connectivity and data services will shape transaction and recurring revenue momentum entering 2027.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Research
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing earnings like these to quickly compare ICE against peers and spot any emerging patterns in the broader exchange sector. The tool lets me apply filters for technical indicators, fundamentals, and performance metrics, which helps surface ideas without manually sorting through dozens of names. It has become a regular part of my workflow for staying on top of transaction-heavy names and data-driven businesses.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ICE in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 47 cases where ICE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 40 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 182 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
ICE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ICE entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.097) is normal, around the industry mean (3.955). P/E Ratio (22.931) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.893). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
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General Information
an operator of online global electronic marketplace for trading in futures and over-the-counter commodities
Industry FinancialPublishingServices
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