GET DAILY SIGNALSJPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Watching for +17% EPS Growth
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 13, before the market opens.
- Wall Street consensus points to earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $5.94, up about 17% from the prior-year quarter.
- Analysts expect net revenue near $52 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth in the low-to-mid teens.
- Investors are watching net interest income (NII), trading revenue, and investment banking (IB) fees after an exceptionally strong second quarter.
- The main risk is a "good but slowing" quarter, as tough comparisons from Q2's record results loom large.
Why This Report Matters
JPMorgan Chase is the largest U.S. bank by assets and a bellwether for the broader financial sector, so its quarterly results are closely watched by investors worldwide. The bank entered 2026 with strong momentum, posting second-quarter net income of $21.2 billion and EPS of $7.70, aided by a surge in equities trading. Now, with the Federal Reserve holding rates higher for longer and Treasury yields elevated, the Q3 report will test whether that momentum can be sustained. The results will offer key signals on loan demand, consumer credit health, and capital markets activity across the banking industry. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Are Expecting
Consensus estimates call for EPS of approximately $5.94 and net revenue near $52 billion, representing year-over-year increases of about 17% and 12.5%, respectively. These figures follow an exceptional Q2, when JPMorgan reported $21.2 billion in net income and $58.0 billion in managed revenue, with equities trading revenue climbing 86% year over year.
Several key metrics are in focus. Analysts expect reported NII (net interest income, or the money banks earn from lending versus what they pay on deposits) of around $27 billion, up roughly 12.5% year over year. Management has guided for mid-to-high-teens growth in both markets revenue and investment banking fees for the quarter. IB fees are projected to rise about 17%, with consensus near $3.08 billion for the Corporate & Investment Bank segment. Credit costs, including net charge-offs and reserve builds, will also be scrutinized after totaling $2.5 billion in Q2.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the print is cautiously optimistic but demanding. JPM shares have pulled back roughly 10% from their all-time high of $366 and are trading near oversold levels on the daily chart, testing their 200-day moving average. Options markets are pricing a move of around ±4.4% around earnings, above the bank's 10-year average of ±3.4%, signaling expectations of an outsized reaction.
Investors appear to be weighing a strong fundamental backdrop against a high bar set by Q2. The bull case rests on resilient NII, continued capital markets strength, and stable credit. The bear case is a "good but slowing" quarter in which trading and IB growth moderate from peak levels. With the stock trading at a premium price-to-book multiple of about 2.5x, the market will likely reward a clean beat and punish any sign of fading momentum.
What to Watch Going Forward
Following the Q3 report, investors should watch several forward-looking signals. First, management's commentary on the full-year 2026 net interest income outlook will be critical. The bank previously guided for total NII of approximately $105.5 billion, with about $96.5 billion excluding Markets, and any revision will shape expectations for 2027's exit run rate.
Second, the trajectory of trading and investment banking activity matters. Management has acknowledged that the specific combination of events that drove Q2's equities surge may be difficult to repeat, so guidance on the deal pipeline and client activity levels will be closely parsed.
Third, credit quality deserves attention. With rates elevated, investors will monitor net charge-off trends in card and commercial lending, as well as any changes to reserve levels. JPMorgan previously lowered its full-year card net charge-off rate outlook to about 3.2%.
Finally, expense discipline remains a point of debate. The bank raised its adjusted expense outlook to about $107.5 billion, citing volume- and revenue-linked costs, and its capital deployment strategy, including buybacks and the newly raised dividend of $1.65 per share, will remain in focus. From what I see, these elements will help shape the longer-term outlook.
My Take on Using AI Tools for Earnings Analysis
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter financial stocks and compare key metrics like NII trends or valuation multiples across peers. It helps surface relevant ideas without spending hours on manual screens, which keeps my focus on the data that matters most for upcoming reports like this one.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for JPM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
JPM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 55 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JPM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 54 cases where JPM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for JPM just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where JPM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +2.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JPM advanced for three days, in 217 of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 183 of 342 cases where JPM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
JPM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
JPM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: JPM's P/B Ratio (2.541) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.507). P/E Ratio (14.456) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.753). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.562) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.888) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
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