GET DAILY SIGNALSMasTec (MTZ) Delivers +22% Revenue Growth in Q3 2025 with Record Backlog
Key Takeaways
- MasTec reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $3.97 billion, up 22% year over year, with double-digit growth across all four operating segments.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.48, ahead of consensus estimates of roughly $2.31 and up 47.6% from $1.68 a year earlier.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 20.3% to $373 million, while GAAP net income climbed 58% to $166 million.
- The company's 18-month backlog reached a record $16.78 billion, up 21.1% year over year, led by a 124% jump in Pipeline Infrastructure.
- Free cash flow fell sharply to $36 million from $252 million a year earlier as working capital increased to support large project ramp-ups.
Putting the Quarter in Context
MasTec is a major North American infrastructure construction contractor spanning communications, clean energy and infrastructure, power delivery, and pipeline work. Its quarterly earnings serve as a direct read on capital spending across telecom build-outs, renewable power, grid modernization, and natural gas. Heading into the release, I was watching whether strong demand in fiber, broadband, and data-center-related construction could offset softer project mix and margin pressure. The results matter beyond the company itself: MasTec's record backlog and double-digit growth are widely viewed as a signal of ongoing energy-transition and digital-infrastructure investment. At the same time, a sharp decline in free cash flow underscored how quickly large project ramp-ups can consume working capital. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Numbers
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, MasTec reported revenue of $3.97 billion, a 22% increase from $3.25 billion in the prior-year period and above the consensus estimate of about $3.89 billion to $3.91 billion. GAAP net income rose 58% to $166 million, with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.04, up from $1.21. Adjusted net income increased 40.8% to $201 million, producing adjusted diluted EPS of $2.48, which beat consensus and was up 47.6% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA climbed 20.3% to $373 million, though adjusted EBITDA margin dipped 13 basis points to 9.4%. By segment, Communications revenue rose 32.9% to $914.6 million; Clean Energy and Infrastructure grew 19.8% to $1.36 billion; Power Delivery increased 16.8% to $1.11 billion; and Pipeline Infrastructure advanced 20.1% to $597.8 million. Pipeline margins contracted 530 basis points on lower efficiencies and unfavorable project mix. The company's 18-month backlog hit a record $16.78 billion.
MasTec also updated full-year 2025 guidance, now targeting roughly $14.08 billion in revenue, approximately $1.14 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of about $6.40.
How the Market Responded
Despite a top-and-bottom-line beat, MasTec shares declined about 2.3% in after-hours trading following the release. The muted reaction reflected investor focus on the quality of the results rather than the headline growth. A sharp drop in free cash flow, driven by working capital tied to large project ramp-ups, and a 530-basis-point margin contraction in the Pipeline Infrastructure segment tempered enthusiasm. Ongoing permitting delays on the Greenlink transmission project within Power Delivery also weighed on the fourth-quarter outlook. Still, the record backlog and management's confirmation of confidence in 2026 consensus expectations signaled underlying demand remains robust.
What to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether MasTec can convert its record $16.78 billion backlog into sustained revenue growth while restoring free cash flow generation. Management expects Greenlink activity to increase in 2026 and has secured another large transmission and substation award intended to help offset permitting-driven delays.
Margin progression remains a central theme. The company has invested in new geographies and customer segments, which has temporarily pressured profitability but is expected to support higher-margin growth as those operations mature. Pipeline Infrastructure, where margins slipped year over year, will be closely watched as natural gas plays a larger role in power generation and project awards continue to improve.
Other factors to monitor include the ramp of the Lumen fiber contract, which management expects to drive visible growth in 2026, and continued hyperscaler capital spending tied to data-center and broadband build-outs. Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be around $350 million. As always, project timing, permitting outcomes, and weather-related restoration work can all influence near-term results. From what I see, the AI Trend Prediction Engine could offer additional perspective on how these infrastructure trends may evolve.
Exploring AI Tools for Infrastructure Analysis
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating names like MasTec. It allows me to quickly filter peers across the construction and industrial sectors using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. This helps surface comparable opportunities without spending hours on manual screening, giving a clearer picture of relative strength within the space. The tool has become a regular part of how I cross-check backlog trends and segment performance against the broader market.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MTZ in -5.48% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 23, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where MTZ declined for three days, in 214 of 278 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTZ as a result. In 53 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTZ turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for MTZ entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTZ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 51 cases where MTZ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +4.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTZ advanced for three days, in 274 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
MTZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.180) is normal, around the industry mean (15.756). P/E Ratio (28.549) is within average values for comparable stocks, (169.208). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.616) is also within normal values, averaging (3.522). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.183) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.103) is also within normal values, averaging (2.960).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTZ’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MTZ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a infrastructure construction company
Industry EngineeringConstruction
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