GET DAILY SIGNALSMcDonald's (MCD) Delivers +11% EPS Growth in Q3 Despite Revenue Miss
Key Takeaways
- McDonald's reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.57 for the third quarter, up 11% year over year and ahead of consensus estimates of roughly $3.38.
- Total revenues rose 1% to $7.16 billion, missing analyst expectations of about $7.28 billion.
- Global comparable sales increased 1.5%, as growth in international markets offset a slight decline in the United States.
- Operating income climbed 7% to $3.6 billion, supported by higher franchised margins and gains from restaurant refranchising.
- The company raised its quarterly cash dividend by 4% to $1.93 per share.
Why This Quarter Matters
McDonald's third-quarter report arrived at a pivotal moment for the world's largest fast-food chain. The company has been working to stabilize its U.S. business after soft guest-count trends earlier in the year, while leaning on international markets to sustain global momentum. This print also offered the first formal update since management introduced "McDonald's Next," its new long-term growth strategy centered on specialty beverages, large beef burgers, and improved restaurant operations. For investors, the quarter provided a read on whether value-focused interventions are reviving U.S. traffic, how margin and refranchising efforts are progressing, and whether the company's capital-allocation priorities—including its dividend and unit growth—remain on track.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, McDonald's reported total revenues of $7.16 billion, a 1% increase from $7.08 billion a year earlier but below consensus estimates of about $7.28 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $3.57, up 11% year over year and above the roughly $3.38 analysts had expected. On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS was $3.51, up 10% from $3.18. Net income rose 9% to $2.49 billion, while operating income increased 7% to $3.60 billion.
Global comparable sales grew 1.5%. Comparable sales in the U.S. slipped 0.2%, as lower guest counts were largely offset by higher average checks. International Operated Markets rose 1.4%, led by Germany and Australia and partly offset by France. International Developmental Licensed Markets advanced 4.2%, led by Japan, while China remained a drag. The company also raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.93 per share. I checked comparable performance across peers using Tickeron’s AI Screener to put these figures in context.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
McDonald's shares moved higher following the report, gaining roughly 5% in intraday trading after a roughly 2.7% pre-market advance. The positive reaction suggested investors focused on the earnings beat and signs of stabilization in the U.S. business, even as revenue came in slightly below expectations. Management noted that U.S. comparable sales turned positive in September after soft results in July and August, a trajectory investors viewed favorably. The dividend increase and continued strength across most international markets also appeared to support sentiment, even as softness in France and China tempered the broader picture.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the most important story to watch is McDonald's U.S. value strategy. The company recently began an eight-week test of new everyday affordable menu constructs in roughly 1,900 U.S. restaurants, with additional franchisee locations adopting similar bundles. Management aims to launch a new value program nationally in early 2027, and the outcome of this test will be a key signal for near-term U.S. comparable sales and traffic.
Investors should also monitor the rollout of the specialty beverage platform, which management views as a driver of incremental sales and a path toward capturing additional beverage market share by 2030. Expansion across nearly all European markets is targeted for mid-2027.
On the operational side, McDonald's now expects about 2,500 gross restaurant openings and roughly 2,100 net openings in 2026, with capital expenditures of about $3.7 billion at the low end of its prior range. Progress on refranchising toward the goal of 98% of restaurants being franchised by 2028 will also shape margins. Finally, continued softness in France and a challenging consumer environment in China remain key watch items for international results. From what I see, tracking these elements closely will help gauge whether the recent stabilization can build into sustained growth.
Using Tickeron Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process, I find Tickeron’s AI Screener particularly useful for quickly filtering stocks like MCD by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It helps surface comparable ideas across the industry without manual effort, giving a clearer view of where the company stands relative to peers and potential momentum opportunities.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MCD in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MCD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCD as a result. In 34 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCD just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
MCD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCD advanced for three days, in 131 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 121 of 287 cases where MCD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 42%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
MCD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MCD's P/B Ratio (-182.131) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (-0.563). P/E Ratio (21.299) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.719). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.018) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.402) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MCD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MCD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
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General Information
an operator of food restaurant chain
Industry Restaurants
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