Medifast (MED) Earnings Preview: Key Metrics to Watch Ahead of Q3 2026 Results
Key Takeaways
- Medifast is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Monday, October 26, 2026, before market open, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Wall Street consensus expects a loss of $0.35 per share on revenue of roughly $71.3 million.
- Company guidance points to Q3 revenue between $60 million and $80 million and a loss of $0.15 to $0.65 per share.
- A year earlier, Medifast posted a loss of $0.21 per share on $89.4 million in revenue.
- Active earning coach count and revenue per coach remain the key operating metrics investors are watching.
- Rising adoption of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) weight-loss medications continues to pressure the traditional weight-management category.
- For more context on the company, explore Medifast's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast pages.
- Discover AI-driven trading ideas by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Medifast, the metabolic health and wellness company behind the Trilivy brand, is navigating a difficult transition. Revenue has declined for several consecutive quarters as the company's independent coach network has shrunk and consumers have shifted toward GLP-1 medications for weight management. Against this backdrop, the third-quarter report is a key checkpoint for a turnaround strategy centered on boosting coach productivity, stabilizing the top line, and returning to profitability. Medifast has beaten consensus earnings estimates in six of its last eight quarters, and management has signaled that profitability improvements should begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. This report will show whether that recovery remains on track. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts expect Medifast to report a loss of $0.35 per share on revenue of approximately $71.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, according to consensus estimates. That revenue figure would represent a year-over-year decline of roughly 20% from the $89.4 million reported in the third quarter of 2025, when the company posted a loss of $0.21 per share.
Management's own guidance is slightly wider, calling for revenue between $60 million and $80 million and a loss per share ranging from $0.15 to $0.65. In the most recent quarter, Medifast reported a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $76.4 million, beating the consensus estimate of a $0.65 loss. Investors will closely watch active earning coach figures, which fell 48.7% year over year to about 11,700 in the second quarter, as well as revenue per active earning coach, which rose 41% year over year to $6,529.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into Medifast's third-quarter report remains cautious. The stock has been pressured by the sustained decline in its coach network and the broader competitive threat posed by GLP-1 medications. However, the company's history of beating consensus earnings estimates and its improving coach productivity have offered some support to investor confidence. The market will be watching whether management's turnaround initiatives, including the rollout of the Trilivy brand and enhanced coach compensation, begin to translate into more stable revenue trends. A result near the midpoint of guidance, combined with constructive commentary on the fourth-quarter profitability target, could influence how shares trade following the release.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Medifast's progress toward its stated goal of returning to profitability beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026. Management has reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $270 million to $300 million and improved its loss-per-share outlook to a range of $0.25 to $1.75, reflecting cost-reduction efforts and expected margin improvement later in the year.
The trajectory of the active earning coach base remains a central variable. While coach productivity has climbed for three consecutive quarters, a continued decline in the overall coach count could keep pressure on revenue. Medifast has indicated it expects coach numbers to keep falling in the near term, so any sign of stabilization would be a meaningful positive signal.
The competitive landscape is another important factor. The rapid adoption of GLP-1 medications has reshaped the weight-management industry, and Medifast is positioning itself as a broader metabolic health platform through Trilivy and its MetaVantage technology. Demand for these new offerings, cost discipline, and margin leverage will be key indicators of whether the turnaround can extend into 2027. Investors should monitor management's commentary on gross margin, selling costs, and any updates to full-year guidance.
Using AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In preparing for earnings like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter comparable names in the health and wellness space and review recent technical signals. It helps surface ideas based on patterns, fundamentals, and volatility without spending hours on manual work. The platform also offers options like AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals and AI Trend Prediction Engine for those looking to automate parts of their process. Overall, these tools have become a regular part of how I cross-check ideas and stay organized around events like this earnings release.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MED's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MED turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where MED's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MED as a result. In 62 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The 10-day moving average for MED crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MED advanced for three days, in 150 of 243 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 51 cases where MED's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
MED moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MED declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
MED broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MED entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.676) is normal, around the industry mean (7.746). MED has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-5.094) as compared to the industry average of (10.930). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (4.440). MED's Dividend Yield (0.556) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.081). P/S Ratio (0.416) is also within normal values, averaging (1.645).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MED’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MED’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a manufacturer of health and diet products
Industry PersonnelServices
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