GET DAILY SIGNALSMonarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Delivers Record Q3 Revenue Despite Consensus Miss
Key Takeaways
- Monarch Casino & Resort reported record third-quarter net revenue of $146.3 million, up 2.4% from $142.8 million a year earlier.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.76, below the FactSet consensus estimate of $1.86, marking a roughly $0.10 miss.
- Net income rose 1.4% to $32.0 million, while Adjusted EBITDA grew 2.1% to $56.0 million.
- Revenue of $146.27 million fell short of the roughly $148 million Wall Street consensus, despite reaching a company record.
- Casino revenue was the main growth driver, climbing 3.4% to $82.8 million, with food and beverage and hotel revenue also rising year over year.
- For the first nine months of 2026, net revenue reached $425.4 million and net income totaled $92.1 million, both up from the prior-year period.
Why This Quarter Matters for Monarch
Monarch Casino & Resort operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa in Black Hawk, Colorado. The company had already set new highs in net revenue and Adjusted EBITDA over the previous three quarters, so this report served as an important check on whether momentum could hold. As a smaller regional gaming operator, even small deviations from expectations can influence the stock noticeably. Investors were focused on whether growth in casino and hotel demand would continue to balance out cost pressures and other items.
The Quarter's Numbers in Detail
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, MCRI posted record net revenue of $146.27 million, an increase of 2.4% from $142.81 million in the same period last year. Net income rose 1.4% to $32.01 million, and diluted EPS increased 4.1% to $1.76 from $1.69 a year earlier, with basic EPS at $1.80. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA advanced 2.1% to $56.02 million, keeping the margin close to record levels at 38.3%. Income from operations climbed 8.1% to $41.28 million. Casino revenue grew 3.4% to $82.84 million, food and beverage revenue rose 1.3% to $34.27 million, and hotel revenue edged up 0.9% to $22.69 million.
Even with the record top line, results missed analyst targets. Diluted EPS of $1.76 fell short of the FactSet consensus of $1.86, and revenue of $146.27 million came in below the roughly $148 million estimate. Over the first nine months, net revenue reached $425.41 million, net income was $92.12 million, and diluted EPS was $5.06, compared with $4.18 in the prior-year period.
How the Market Responded
The report presented a mixed picture: record results on the company’s own measures, yet a shortfall against Street expectations. Shares closed at $115.28 on the day of the release. The stock had declined about 6% over the prior three months while rising roughly 25% over the trailing twelve months. The modest misses on revenue and EPS took some shine off an otherwise solid operational quarter, showing how high estimates can create a tough benchmark even when records are set. Sentiment before the release had been generally positive given the streak of strong quarters, but the miss may lead investors to adjust near-term growth views.
What to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether Monarch can turn its record revenue into stronger bottom-line growth. Management has emphasized maintaining strong offerings and operational efficiency while investing in technology and capital projects at both properties. Key areas include continued evaluation of potential M&A opportunities that could add long-term value, ongoing capital spending on maintenance, equipment, and land near the Atlantis resort, and trends in operating expenses along with any litigation items. Sustaining the roughly 38% Adjusted EBITDA margin amid costs, labor, and competition in Colorado and Nevada will remain important through the rest of fiscal 2026.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When analyzing names like MCRI, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered tools to cross-check patterns and fundamentals across the sector. The AI Screener stands out for quickly filtering stocks by industry, technical signals, and performance metrics, which helps surface comparable ideas without spending hours on manual work. It has become a regular part of how I review opportunities in regional gaming and beyond.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MCRI sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 26, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MCRI moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 37 of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCRI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCRI as a result. In 58 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCRI just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCRI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +1.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCRI advanced for three days, in 207 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
MCRI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCRI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for MCRI entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 35 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MCRI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.609) is normal, around the industry mean (12.790). P/E Ratio (18.234) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.195). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.080) is also within normal values, averaging (0.784). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.023) among similar stocks. MCRI's P/S Ratio (4.045) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.049).
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General Information
a holding company which owns and operates hotel casinos
Industry HotelsResortsCruiselines
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