monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Drops Sharply After Earnings: Can Shares Reach the $105 Target?

Key Takeaways

• The central target of $105 is the arithmetic mean of current, verifiable analyst price targets reviewed for this article (an underlying average of roughly $103, rounded for readability).
• At a recent price near $80, reaching $105 would require a gain of roughly 31%, which qualifies as a substantial move.
• Analyst targets span a wide range from about $87 to $132, reflecting genuine disagreement about the company's growth trajectory.
• The strongest supports are a growing enterprise customer base, record profitability, and early traction in AI products.
• The biggest risks are decelerating revenue growth, a declining net dollar retention rate, and a wave of recent downgrades and target cuts.
• For more context on this company, explore the Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings pages.
• For automated, AI-driven trade ideas across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.

Analyst Price Targets and the Current Consensus

Because MNDY is a widely covered stock, the $105 central target is built from individual analyst targets rather than a single house view. Reviewing current, attributable targets across major firms produces a range from about $87 (J.P. Morgan, which downgraded the stock to Neutral in September) to $132 (Citi, which maintains a Buy). The arithmetic mean of the reviewed targets is approximately $103, which rounds to a clean central target of $105.

Sentiment has shifted notably toward caution after the November earnings report. Needham downgraded the stock to Hold and removed its target; Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $90 from $115 and moved to Hold; and TD Cowen lowered its rating to Hold with a $105 target. Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $100 from $120 (retaining Overweight), Morgan Stanley lowered its target to about $109 from $115, and Oppenheimer reduced its target to $100 from $115. Barclays also moved to Equal Weight. The result is a consensus that has drifted from Buy toward Hold, with roughly 15 to 16 current ratings split between Buy and Hold and essentially no Sell ratings.

Current Market Position and the Path to the Target

With the stock near $80 and the central target at $105, the required upside is about 31% — a substantial move by most definitions. The path toward that level would depend on whether revenue growth, which decelerated from 24% in the first quarter to 19% in the third quarter of 2026, can stabilize at a level investors find acceptable.

Third-quarter revenue rose 19.2% year over year to $377.5 million, and adjusted EPS of $2.14 beat consensus, but fourth-quarter guidance of $380 million to $382 million implied only about 14% growth and came in below expectations. Management has signaled that the transition to an "AI-first" enterprise model will create near-term operational headwinds, and the CFO indicated stability may be "a few quarters" away. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.

Factors That Could Support a Move Toward $105

Several factors could support a recovery toward $105. The company's enterprise base is expanding, with customers generating more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) up 33% year over year to 2,127, and those above $50,000 in ARR up 26% to 5,038. Profitability has improved markedly, with a record non-GAAP operating margin of 24%, aided by a restructuring that cut roughly 20% of the workforce. AI ARR reached $36 million, and the company's AI agents surpassed 6 million interactions in under two quarters. Remaining performance obligations rose 27% to $946 million, and an aggressive buyback program has reduced the share count, supporting per-share results.

Risks That Could Keep the Target Out of Reach

The principal obstacle is deceleration. Net dollar retention (NDR), a measure of how much existing customers spend over time, fell to 108% from 117% a year earlier and is expected to decline further toward 107% by year-end. SMB demand has weakened, enterprise sales cycles are lengthening, and operating cash flow dropped to $20.4 million from $95.1 million in the prior-year quarter. The wave of downgrades and price-target reductions reflects concern that the AI pivot may not offset slowing core growth quickly enough. A valuation multiple that has already compressed could compress further if growth expectations continue to reset lower.

Technical Levels and Market Structure

The post-earnings decline pushed shares through prior support and below the $80 level, marking one of the stock's weakest prints of the year. The area around $90 to $100, where many reduced analyst targets now cluster, could act as a psychological resistance zone on any recovery. A sustained move toward $105 would require the stock to reclaim those levels decisively, which in turn depends on fundamentals stabilizing rather than on short-term technical signals alone.

Time Horizon and Key Items to Watch

Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of approximately 12 months, though individual firms may differ. Investors should watch for stabilization in NDR, the trajectory of revenue growth and quarterly guidance, progress in AI ARR and enterprise customer additions, and any further analyst revisions following the AI-first transition. The next earnings report and any updated guidance on when management expects growth to bottom will be the most important catalysts for the path toward $105.

Using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals

I find Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals helpful as a data-driven complement to fundamental research. The system uses artificial intelligence to monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on market conditions and technical behavior. This can assist with timing and trend confirmation when evaluating whether MNDY can recover toward its price target.

Final Assessment

The $105 central target represents the average of current Wall Street targets for monday.com, but it sits well above a stock that has just been repriced lower on slowing growth and cautious guidance. A 31% recovery is achievable only if the company can demonstrate that its AI-first enterprise transition is stabilizing retention and reaccelerating revenue. Strong profitability, a growing enterprise base, and meaningful AI traction support the bull case, while declining NDR, weaker SMB demand, and a series of downgrades anchor the bear case. The wide $87-to-$132 analyst range underscores genuine uncertainty, and investors should monitor retention and guidance trends before drawing conclusions.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

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Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

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