GET DAILY SIGNALSmonday.com (MNDY) Delivers +19% Revenue Growth in Q3 but Shares React to Softer Q4 Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Third-quarter revenue reached $377.5 million, up 19% year over year and above the consensus estimate of roughly $369.2 million.
- Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.14, well ahead of the $1.37 consensus.
- Adjusted operating margin reached a record 24%, up from 15% a year earlier, reflecting restructuring efforts and cost discipline.
- Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $380 million to $382 million (about 14% growth) came in below expectations, tempering the positive Q3 results.
- AI annual recurring revenue reached $36 million, while net dollar retention held at 108%.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
monday.com (MNDY) is navigating a strategic shift toward an AI-first, enterprise-focused model, so this quarterly update serves as an important checkpoint. The company has traded some top-line momentum for greater operational discipline, and the third-quarter numbers show how that transition is unfolding. Management emphasizes revenue, operating margin, and free cash flow in its outlook, which gives investors a clearer picture of profitability and early AI monetization rather than growth in isolation. With restructuring largely behind it, the focus is on whether cost savings can support sustainable earnings without hurting the revenue base.
Reported Results
monday.com (MNDY) posted third-quarter revenue of $377.5 million, a 19% year-over-year increase that topped the consensus estimate of about $369.2 million. Adjusted EPS of $2.14 significantly exceeded the $1.37 analyst consensus. Adjusted operating income rose to $89.4 million from $47.5 million a year earlier, delivering a record adjusted operating margin of 24% versus 15% in the prior-year period. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to benchmark the margin expansion against peers.
Other metrics were mixed. Net dollar retention stood at 108%. Customers with more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue grew 33% year over year to 2,127. AI ARR reached $36 million, and monday agents exceeded 6 million interactions. Operating cash flow declined to $20.4 million from $95.1 million, and adjusted free cash flow fell to $63 million from $92.3 million, partly due to restructuring-related payments.
For the fourth quarter, management guided revenue of $380 million to $382 million, pointing to roughly 14% growth and below consensus. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $1.473 billion to $1.475 billion (about 20% growth), with an adjusted operating margin near 18% and adjusted free cash flow of $282 million to $288 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite the third-quarter beats on revenue and earnings, monday.com (MNDY) shares declined roughly 7% after the report. Investors appeared to focus on the softer fourth-quarter outlook. The midpoint of the Q4 guidance implies about 14% growth, a slowdown from the 19% pace in Q3. Management cited longer enterprise sales cycles, more measured buying around AI, and continued pressure in the small- and midsize-business segment. The reaction highlights a shift in sentiment: profitability gains are welcomed, yet investors want clearer signs that AI investments will drive durable growth.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the key question is whether monday.com (MNDY) can stabilize revenue growth while preserving the margin improvements seen in the third quarter. Management expects weaker demand from smaller businesses and extended enterprise cycles to continue into 2027, with revenue growth potentially taking several quarters to settle.
AI monetization remains central. The $36 million in AI ARR shows stronger traction among larger accounts, yet it is still a modest slice of the overall business. The pace at which AI credits and new offerings such as monday Frontier and the Harmony voice AI platform convert into recurring revenue will draw close attention.
Investors should also track net dollar retention trends, enterprise customer additions, and free cash flow, which faced pressure from restructuring payments. Foreign-exchange headwinds of 100 to 200 basis points and the reinvestment of roughly $100 million in restructuring savings into AI, compensation, and go-to-market initiatives will influence profitability in coming quarters.
AI Tools in My Research Process
When evaluating earnings reports like this one, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers by margin trends, growth rates, and AI-related metrics. It helps surface comparable names and technical setups that complement the fundamental read, allowing me to place the results in broader context without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MNDY sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
MNDY saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 02, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MNDY moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MNDY as a result. In 58 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
MNDY moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MNDY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
MNDY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for MNDY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The 50-day moving average for MNDY moved above the 200-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +11.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MNDY advanced for three days, in 231 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 144 of 185 cases where MNDY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MNDY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.015) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (36.185) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.314) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.434) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MNDY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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