GET DAILY SIGNALSMonopar Therapeutics (MNPR): Path to +72% Upside Toward the $125 Target
Key Takeaways
- The $125 central target is the arithmetic mean of eight recent, individually attributable analyst price targets (roughly $126), rounded for readability.
- The verified analyst target range is wide, spanning approximately $103 to $145, reflecting genuine disagreement about execution and regulatory risk.
- At a latest verified price near $72.68, reaching $125 would require roughly 72% upside — a very large move.
- The strongest support is a rolling FDA New Drug Application for ALXN1840 in Wilson disease, which the company says is on track to complete within weeks.
- The biggest risks are a pre-revenue, loss-making profile, elevated short interest, insider selling, and a share price trading below its key moving averages.
Breaking Down the Analyst Consensus
The $125 figure is a calculated average, not an official published consensus. Reviewing eight current, individually attributed targets yields an arithmetic mean of about $126: Barclays at $145, BTIG at $133, Morgan Stanley and JonesTrading at $130, H.C. Wainwright at $125, Piper Sandler at $123, Cantor Fitzgerald at $119, and Lake Street at $103. The wide $103–$145 spread reflects the uncertain value of a pre-revenue pipeline where the near-term outcome hinges on regulatory execution.
Sentiment leans bullish, with the majority of recent ratings at Buy or Overweight and no Sell ratings. Cantor Fitzgerald, however, moved to a Neutral (Hold) stance in August, a notable caution signal. Most bullish arguments center on the advanced-stage ALXN1840 program and its strong balance sheet, while cautious views emphasize clinical-stage risk and a lack of near-term revenue. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Where MNPR Stands Today and the Road Ahead
Monopar Therapeutics last closed near $72.68, well below its 52-week high of about $124.82 but above the 52-week low near $50.07. Reaching $125 implies roughly 72% appreciation — a very large move by any standard. Notably, even the lowest current analyst target of $103 sits more than 40% above the prevailing price, underscoring how far the stock has fallen from its peak after a historic rally that lifted its three-year return into the thousands of percent.
The path toward the target would likely require successful completion and acceptance of the rolling NDA for ALXN1840, followed by positive regulatory news, while the company continues funding its radiopharmaceutical pipeline from $129.4 million in cash and investments.
Catalysts That Could Drive the Stock Higher
- Regulatory catalyst: Management says the rolling FDA NDA submission for ALXN1840 in Wilson disease should be complete within several weeks, a potential first-approval milestone.
- Financial runway: Cash of roughly $129 million is expected to fund operations into at least March 2028, reducing near-term dilution pressure.
- Clinical data flow: Phase 3 FoCus baseline findings for ALXN1840 were presented at the AASLD Liver Meeting, keeping the program in front of specialists.
- Bullish sell-side stance: The prevailing Buy/Overweight ratings and a mean target well above the current price indicate analysts see the shares as undervalued relative to pipeline potential.
Key Risks to Watch
- Regulatory failure or delay: FDA approval is not guaranteed; any Complete Response Letter or submission delay could reset the valuation.
- Pre-revenue losses: The company reported a $6.2 million third-quarter net loss, and rising R&D and G&A expenses continue to pressure EPS.
- Bearish positioning: Short interest is elevated at roughly 17% of shares outstanding, and insiders recorded only sales over the past six months.
- Dilution history: Shares outstanding rose about 46% year over year, a pattern that can weigh on per-share value.
- Downtrend: The stock trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling persistent technical weakness.
Technical Picture and Support Levels
The shares sit in a downtrend after failing near the $124.82 52-week high. The 200-day moving average near $77 and the 50-day moving average near $84 now act as overhead resistance zones that the stock would need to reclaim before a sustained push toward $100 and then $125. On the downside, the recent low near $67 and the $50 psychological and 52-week low offer support. Given the elevated short interest, any positive regulatory news could also trigger sharp short-covering rallies. From what I see, monitoring these levels closely helps frame the risk-reward setup.
What to Keep an Eye On Going Forward
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though firms do not always state this explicitly. The most important near-term items are completion and FDA acceptance of the ALXN1840 rolling NDA, any follow-on clinical or regulatory updates for the MNPR-101 radiopharmaceutical program, quarterly cash-burn trends, and analyst rating or target revisions. Sustained insider selling or rising short interest would also merit attention.
AI Tools in My Research Process
In my own work, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to monitor technical shifts alongside the fundamental catalysts for names like MNPR. These signals help spot momentum changes more efficiently when combined with regulatory timelines and cash runway data. One thing that stands out is how they can complement the wide analyst range by highlighting short-term entry or exit points based on real-time market behavior.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MNPR in +9.71% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where MNPR advanced for three days, in 223 of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MNPR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MNPR as a result. In 70 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MNPR just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MNPR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
MNPR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 50 cases where MNPR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MNPR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for MNPR entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.663) is normal, around the industry mean (3.498). P/E Ratio (-32.464) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-1.193). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (130.981) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (440.869).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MNPR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in building a drug development pipeline of oncology therapeutics in late preclinical and clinical development stages
Industry Biotechnology
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