GET DAILY SIGNALSNathan's Famous (NATH) Readies Q2 Fiscal 2027 Results as Smithfield Deal Looms
Key Takeaways
- Nathan's Famous is scheduled to report its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results before the market opens on November 6, 2026, covering the thirteen-week period ended in late September 2026.
- Analyst coverage is thin, so the key comparisons are last quarter's revenue of $54.06 million with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14, against the prior-year second quarter's revenue of roughly $45.7 million and diluted EPS of approximately $1.26.
- Elevated beef and beef-trimming costs, which rose approximately 19% during fiscal 2026, remain the central margin risk in the company's branded product program.
- The pending $102-per-share all-cash acquisition by Smithfield Foods, valued at roughly $450 million in total enterprise value, continues to frame the investment narrative.
- A steady $0.50 quarterly cash dividend and resilient license royalties provide a degree of downside support to the broader story.
- For more context on this ticker, explore Nathan's Famous Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on additional pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to discover AI-driven trading strategies across the broader market.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Nathan's Famous is a Russell 2000 company whose earnings hinge on three distinct engines: a branded product program selling hot dogs to foodservice operators, a licensing business built largely on royalties from its retail and foodservice agreement with Smithfield Foods, and company-owned restaurants. While the pending merger reduces near-term trading sensitivity, the quarterly results still matter for assessing the durability of these cash flows during the deal's final stretch. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue grew to $54.06 million, yet diluted EPS slipped to $2.14 from $2.16 a year earlier as rising beef costs compressed branded product margins. This report will show whether those cost pressures are easing or persisting. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
Nathan's Famous carries minimal sell-side coverage, and no widely published consensus revenue or EPS estimate is available for the second quarter of fiscal 2027. As a result, investors are likely to anchor on sequential and year-over-year comparisons rather than formal expectations. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company reported total revenues of $54.06 million and diluted EPS of $2.14. In the comparable year-ago quarter, revenue was approximately $45.7 million with diluted EPS near $1.26. Key metrics to watch include branded product program sales and operating income, which are sensitive to beef and beef-trimming prices; license royalties, which reflect the stability of the Smithfield relationship; and company-owned restaurant sales, which have been affected by weather-driven foot traffic, particularly at Coney Island locations.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into this report is dominated by the acquisition rather than operating fundamentals. With Smithfield Foods agreeing to pay $102.00 per share in cash, the stock has largely traded as a proxy for deal-completion probability rather than quarterly performance, leaving limited room for earnings-driven volatility. That said, thin trading liquidity can amplify short-term price swings around any headline. Key risk factors investors are weighing include the status of regulatory approvals, notably clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and the company's updated expectation that the transaction will close in the second half of 2026. Persistent margin pressure from beef costs remains the most visible fundamental risk if the deal were to be delayed or terminated.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The most consequential item on the horizon is the completion of the Smithfield Foods acquisition. Management has stated that, given the impact of a partial government shutdown on CFIUS review timelines, the closing is now expected in the second half of 2026. Investors should monitor any updates on shareholder approval, antitrust clearance, and CFIUS sign-off, since these milestones directly determine whether the $102-per-share consideration is realized.
Beyond the merger, input costs remain the central operating variable. A 19% rise in beef and beef-trimming costs weighed on branded product margins throughout fiscal 2026, and the company's ability to pass through pricing will be a key signal in this report. The branded product program has also shown volume growth of only about 1%, meaning much of the recent revenue expansion has come from higher average selling prices rather than unit gains.
Finally, investors should keep an eye on license royalty stability, restaurant foot traffic at Coney Island, and the quarterly $0.50 dividend, which the board has continued to declare as permitted under the merger agreement. These factors, taken together, will shape how the market interprets Nathan's Famous' results as the company approaches the expected transition to private ownership. From what I see, the dividend offers a useful buffer while the deal progresses.
Exploring AI Tools for Earnings Research
In preparing for this report, I turned to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers and spot patterns in the broader consumer sector. It helped surface comparable names with similar margin sensitivities and allowed me to cross-check technical setups against the fundamental backdrop. This kind of systematic scan complements traditional earnings analysis without replacing it, especially when coverage is thin and the acquisition story dominates headlines. The tool’s ability to combine fundamentals with AI signals made it straightforward to organize the data points I was already tracking.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NATH sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for NATH moved above the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NATH advanced for three days, in 154 of 265 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 135 of 216 cases where NATH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NATH turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 42%.
NATH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NATH's P/B Ratio (-58.387) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (-0.579). P/E Ratio (20.955) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.889). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.780) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.407) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NATH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company which engages in operating franchised fast food units
Industry Restaurants
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