GET DAILY SIGNALSNewmark Group (NMRK) Posts Solid Q3 Revenue Rise but Trims Full-Year Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Newmark Group reported third quarter 2026 total revenue of $973.2 million, up 12.7% year over year and above consensus estimates of roughly $952.7 million.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 14.3% to $0.48, up from $0.42 a year earlier and roughly in line with analyst expectations.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 14.6% to $166.4 million, with margins expanding to 17.1%.
- Leasing revenue surged 26.5% and Management Services grew 18.3%, but Capital Markets revenue declined 4.4% as origination activity softened.
- Management lowered its full-year 2026 guidance, citing a challenging macroeconomic environment and uncertainty around the timing of deal closings.
- Shares fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the release as investors focused on the reduced outlook.
Why These Results Matter in the Current Environment
Newmark Group’s third quarter numbers arrive at an interesting time for commercial real estate. Elevated interest rates have made transaction activity uneven, yet the company has spent years building more stable, recurring revenue streams through property management, facilities services, valuation, and loan servicing. That shift helps explain the ninth straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth even as capital markets activity slowed. From my perspective, the report tests whether those recurring businesses can continue to offset softer transactional volumes and whether the revised guidance points to a near-term pause in momentum. The results also coincide with a leadership change, as longtime CEO Barry Gosin plans to step down at the end of 2026.
Breaking Down the Quarter’s Numbers
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, Newmark Group reported total revenue of $973.2 million, a 12.7% increase from $863.5 million in the prior-year period. GAAP net income attributable to fully diluted shares was $67.4 million, with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.27, compared with $0.25 a year ago.
On an adjusted basis, EPS came in at $0.48, up 14.3% from $0.42, while adjusted EBITDA rose 14.6% to $166.4 million. Revenue topped consensus estimates, while adjusted EPS aligned closely with forecasts. Segment results were mixed: Management Services, Servicing Fees, and Other revenue grew 18.3% to $376.3 million; Leasing and Other Commissions jumped 26.5% to $308.6 million; and Capital Markets revenue declined 4.4% to $288.2 million as lower mortgage origination activity offset a roughly 33% rise in investment sales volumes.
Alongside the results, Newmark revised its full-year 2026 outlook downward. The company now expects total revenue between $3.70 billion and $3.80 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $629 million and $667 million, and adjusted EPS between $1.80 and $1.90. Management pointed to a difficult macro environment that creates uncertainty around deal timing.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how NMRK compares with peers in the real estate services space.
Market Reaction and Broader Sentiment
Newmark’s report showed a mixed picture. The revenue beat and steady adjusted EPS growth were overshadowed by the reduced full-year outlook, and the stock sold off, falling roughly 7% in immediate post-earnings trading. That response highlights how markets are focusing more on forward guidance than past results, especially in a sector where transaction volumes remain uncertain.
Sentiment toward the shares has been cautious throughout 2026. NMRK has lost roughly 30% since the start of the year, underperforming the broader market. While recurring revenue lines continue to provide stability, investors seem to be waiting for clearer signals on capital markets activity, interest rate direction, and the planned CEO succession.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors to Watch
Interest rate trends and their impact on commercial real estate deal flow will remain the main driver for Newmark’s transaction businesses. Management expects industry capital markets volumes to stay under pressure through at least the first half of 2027 if rates remain elevated and volatile, which could limit origination revenue even as investment sales recover somewhat.
The recurring segments serve as an important offset. Newmark aims to grow recurring service-line revenue to more than $2 billion by 2029, up from about $1.42 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. Continued double-digit growth in management services, servicing, and property management would help stabilize results if transactional activity stays soft.
Leasing momentum also deserves attention, as it stood out in the third quarter. Demand from technology, artificial intelligence, data centers, and manufacturing has supported office and industrial activity, and management expects leasing to keep improving, though at a more modest single-digit pace next year.
Two additional items stand out. Newmark’s board reauthorized a $400 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the balance sheet, which carries a low 1.0x net leverage ratio after a September upgrade to an investment-grade BBB- credit rating. At the same time, the upcoming CEO transition at the end of 2026 introduces an element of leadership uncertainty that investors will likely monitor closely.
Enhancing Analysis with AI Tools
In my own research, I frequently use Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by industry, technical patterns, and performance metrics. It helps surface comparable names and emerging trends more efficiently than manual reviews, which supports a more thorough look at opportunities around names like NMRK.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for NMRK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NMRK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 63 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NMRK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 51 cases where NMRK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NMRK just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NMRK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +6.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NMRK advanced for three days, in 198 of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
NMRK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NMRK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator for NMRK entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.436) is normal, around the industry mean (2.089). P/E Ratio (13.711) is within average values for comparable stocks, (52.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.683). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.103) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.998) is also within normal values, averaging (5.807).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NMRK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NMRK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of real estate services
Industry RealEstateDevelopment
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