GET DAILY SIGNALSNexa Resources (NEXA) Delivers +23% Revenue Growth in Q3 2026 Despite Headline Loss
Key Takeaways
- Nexa Resources reported net revenue of US$937 million for the third quarter of 2026, up 23% year over year and just shy of the roughly US$939 million consensus estimate.
- Adjusted EBITDA climbed 62% year over year to US$301 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 32.1%.
- The company posted a net loss of US$47 million, reversing a US$100 million profit a year earlier, driven by non-cash items rather than weaker cash generation.
- Net leverage improved to 1.24x, down from 1.40x in the prior quarter and 2.21x a year ago, supported by stronger trailing EBITDA and lower net debt.
- Reported EPS came in at -US$0.47 per ADR, below the consensus estimate of US$0.60, reflecting roughly US$175 million in combined non-cash charges.
Context Behind the Quarter
NEXA is one of Latin America’s largest zinc producers, operating mines and smelters in Peru and Brazil. Its results provide a clear window into zinc and copper pricing trends, smelter utilization rates, and overall cost management. The third-quarter update carried extra significance given ongoing work at the Aripuanã mine, the recovery at the Cajamarquilla smelter after an earlier fire, and the company’s balance-sheet progress. With zinc prices firmer and by-product credits improving, the period showed whether stronger top-line performance could translate into better margins while handling higher capital spending.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
Net revenue reached US$937 million, a 23% rise from US$751.6 million in the year-earlier quarter, helped by higher smelting volumes and better zinc and copper prices. The figure landed just below the roughly US$939 million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 62% to US$301 million, lifting the margin by 7.7 percentage points to 32.1%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The bottom line moved to a net loss of US$47 million from a US$100 million profit previously. Two non-cash items drove the swing: a US$124 million impairment at the Juiz de Fora and Três Marias units plus a US$51 million revaluation tied to silver-streaming contracts. Reported EPS therefore printed at -US$0.47 per ADR versus the US$0.60 consensus. Operationally, the company generated US$185 million in operating cash flow and US$73 million in free cash flow. Net leverage improved to 1.24x. Nexa also lifted its full-year 2026 capital-expenditure guidance by 10% to US$420 million to support faster work at Aripuanã and the Cerro Pasco Integration Project.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
ADRs finished modestly higher, trading near US$12.00 for a roughly 1.5% gain on the day. The restrained response indicates investors focused on the solid adjusted EBITDA, lower leverage, and healthy cash generation rather than the headline loss. The non-cash nature of the charges appears to have limited the impact of the EPS miss, while the raised spending guidance pointed to management’s confidence in its growth projects.
Key Areas to Watch Going Forward
Several factors will likely shape performance in coming quarters. Plant utilization at Aripuanã reached 90% in September, up from an average 84% in the third quarter and 71% in the second; maintaining those rates remains central to production targets. The Cerro Pasco Integration Project is on track for mechanical completion by December 2026, commissioning in the first quarter of 2027, and tailings pumping early in the third quarter of 2027, pending approvals.
Cost trends and margin resilience will stay in view, especially with preparations underway for the 2026–2027 El Niño period. Energy needs are largely contracted in Peru, with uncovered positions in Brazil below 10% of expected 2027 consumption. Zinc and copper prices, along with silver by-product credits, will continue to influence results. The higher capital-expenditure plan of US$420 million signals an intensified investment phase, so free-cash-flow trends alongside that spending will merit close attention.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
From what I see, tools that combine technical patterns with fundamental filters can help surface relevant comparisons quickly. I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating how a company stacks up against peers on metrics like margins, leverage, and recent performance. It allows me to scan for similar names in the base-metals space and review AI-driven signals without spending hours on manual work.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NEXA in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
NEXA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 35 cases where NEXA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NEXA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 55 cases where NEXA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +4.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEXA advanced for three days, in 224 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEXA as a result. In 71 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NEXA turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEXA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEXA entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.300) is normal, around the industry mean (7.482). P/E Ratio (5.656) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.461). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (1.026). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.015) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.462) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEXA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company which produces, refines, processes and sells zinc
Industry OtherMetalsMinerals
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