GET DAILY SIGNALSNexstar (NXST) Reports Record Q3 Revenue Up +78% Driven by TEGNA and Political Ads
Key Takeaways
- Nexstar posted record third-quarter net revenue of $2.13 billion, up 78% from $1.20 billion a year earlier.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.92, versus $2.14 in the prior-year quarter, while net income rose to $255 million from $70 million.
- Results beat Wall Street expectations, with revenue topping the roughly $2.07 billion consensus estimate.
- Record political advertising revenue of $317 million and the TEGNA acquisition were the main growth drivers.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $756 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $443 million.
- Nexstar has repaid $1.3 billion of debt year to date as management prioritizes reducing leverage.
Why This Quarter Carries Extra Weight
This quarterly earnings report carries unusual weight because it is the first full quarter to include results from Nexstar's TEGNA acquisition, a transformative deal that reshapes the company's scale across local broadcasting and its national networks. The comparison against the prior-year period, which reflected only Nexstar's legacy operations, makes headline growth figures especially large. Investors are also watching closely because political advertising, which surged ahead of the 2026 election cycle, is a key swing factor for broadcaster profitability. Beyond the raw numbers, the report offers an early read on how Nexstar is integrating TEGNA, managing distribution negotiations, and progressing toward its stated goal of making The CW network profitable. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how NXST compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, Nexstar reported record net revenue of $2.13 billion, up from $1.20 billion in the year-ago period, reflecting $765 million of TEGNA revenue plus higher advertising and distribution revenue in the legacy business. Net income attributable to the company climbed to $255 million from $70 million, and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations rose to $7.92 from $2.14. Revenue exceeded consensus estimates of approximately $2.07 billion.
Distribution revenue increased 53.9% to $1.09 billion, while advertising revenue more than doubled to $1.02 billion. Political advertising revenue reached a record $317 million for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $756 million, net cash provided by operating activities was $680 million, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $443 million. On a combined basis — accounting for TEGNA in both periods — net revenue rose 15.4% year over year. From what I see, the debt repayment progress stands out as management focuses on strengthening the balance sheet.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The record revenue and an EPS beat gave Nexstar a constructive backdrop around its earnings release, with the results landing ahead of consensus on both the top and bottom lines. Sentiment is being shaped by two competing forces. On the positive side, the integration of TEGNA is progressing, distribution negotiations were completed without service interruptions, and management reiterated its original 2026 distribution guidance for the legacy business. On the cautionary side, investors are weighing the legal uncertainty surrounding the TEGNA combination, including a preliminary injunction that has so far prevented full integration and an upcoming Ninth Circuit appeals hearing. The significant year-over-year growth figures also require context, since the prior-year comparison excludes TEGNA and therefore flatters headline results.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, several developments will shape how investors assess Nexstar in the coming quarters. First, management reiterated that The CW network is still expected to deliver its first profitable quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, a milestone that could meaningfully influence sentiment if achieved.
Second, the regulatory and legal path for the TEGNA integration remains a central variable. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to repeal the national ownership cap in favor of a case-by-case review, but a preliminary injunction currently prevents Nexstar from fully integrating with TEGNA, and a U.S. Court of Appeals hearing is scheduled for November 17, 2026. The outcome will affect how quickly the company can realize anticipated synergies.
Third, advertising trends bear watching. Political advertising, which drove much of the quarter's strength, naturally fades after an election cycle. Management expects combined non-political advertising to decline by a high single-digit percentage in the fourth quarter, partly due to crowd-out from political spending. Finally, investors should monitor continued debt reduction, distribution subscriber trends, and growth in virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs) and streaming platforms, which now represent a low-teens percentage of distribution revenue. I’m watching this closely for signs of sustained momentum.
Exploring AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In my view, tools like Tickeron’s AI Screener can help investors quickly filter opportunities across sectors and spot patterns that might otherwise take hours to identify manually. I’ve found it useful when comparing names like NXST to peers on technical signals, fundamentals, and momentum metrics. It’s become part of my regular process for staying on top of media and broadcasting stocks without getting overwhelmed by the data volume.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NXST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
NXST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NXST as a result. In 51 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NXST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where NXST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 10-day moving average for NXST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +4.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NXST advanced for three days, in 188 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 119 of 205 cases where NXST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NXST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
NXST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NXST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.518) is normal, around the industry mean (3.501). P/E Ratio (34.281) is within average values for comparable stocks, (112.559). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (1.298). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.860) is also within normal values, averaging (8.232).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of television broadcasting services
Industry Broadcasting
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