GET DAILY SIGNALSNicolet Bankshares (NIC) Prepares to Report Third-Quarter 2026 Results After Key Acquisition
Key Takeaways
- Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) reports its third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Monday, October 20, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus calls for earnings of roughly $3.06 to $3.07 per share, up from about $2.66 a year earlier.
- Analysts expect revenue near $173.6 million, reflecting the first full, clean quarter after the MidWestOne acquisition closed in February 2026.
- The bank has topped consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates in each of its last several reported quarters.
- Investors will be watching net interest margin (NIM, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits), loan growth, and integration costs.
Earnings Context and Its Significance
Nicolet Bankshares is the Green Bay, Wisconsin-based holding company for Nicolet National Bank, a community bank serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. This quarter stands out as the first period where the full effects of the transformative MidWestOne acquisition, completed in February 2026, should appear without the heavy merger charges that affected the first quarter. The transaction roughly doubled the balance sheet, bringing total assets to about $15.6 billion and moving NIC closer to the largest community banks in the Upper Midwest. For investors, this report serves as an important check on whether the expanded operation can deliver the loan growth, deposit stability, and efficiency improvements outlined when the deal was announced.
Consensus Estimates and Operating Focus Areas
Heading into the release, the consensus estimate among analysts covering Nicolet Bankshares is for earnings of approximately $3.06 to $3.07 per share, which would represent a year-over-year increase of roughly 12% to 15% from the $2.66 reported in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue is expected to come in near $173.6 million, according to consensus data compiled by Zacks and other trackers, a sharp jump that largely reflects the larger post-acquisition balance sheet. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on several operating metrics. Net interest margin is a central watch item: the bank reported a NIM of 4.14% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.98% in the first quarter, partly because of favorable purchase accounting accretion from the acquired loan portfolio. That accretion will fade over time, so any sign that core margin is holding up will be closely scrutinized. Loan and deposit trends, noninterest (fee) income, credit quality, and the pace of merger-related expense reductions are also likely to feature prominently in the discussion.
Nicolet has a strong track record of exceeding expectations, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last several reported quarters, including a $0.14 beat in the second quarter of 2026, when it posted $2.99 versus the $2.85 estimate. The stock's post-earnings moves have been relatively modest, however, suggesting the market prices in much of the good news ahead of time.
Market Reaction and Broader Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the report is broadly constructive. Analysts hold a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating on Nicolet shares, with price targets clustering around $183 to $192, implying meaningful upside from recent trading levels. The stock delivered only a muted move following the prior quarter's earnings beat, which suggests investors are focused less on a single quarter and more on the durability of the post-merger earnings run rate. Key risk factors heading into the release include any compression in core net interest margin as purchase accounting accretion rolls off, weaker-than-expected loan demand, or signs of rising credit costs. A surprise on merger-related expenses or on the pending sale of the Denver banking branches could also sway the immediate reaction.
Forward Outlook and Areas to Watch
After the third-quarter report, the focus will shift to whether Nicolet can sustain its improved profitability as one-time acquisition benefits fade. Management has guided toward closing the sale of its Denver, Colorado branches to Sunwest Bank during the third quarter, a transaction that removes roughly $390 million in loans and $380 million in deposits from the balance sheet while simplifying the footprint.
Investors should also track the trajectory of the net interest margin. A portion of the recent margin expansion came from purchase accounting accretion tied to the MidWestOne loan portfolio, which is temporary by nature. The underlying question is whether the bank can offset that decline with disciplined deposit pricing and continued loan repricing.
Credit quality remains another area to monitor. Nonperforming assets and the allowance for credit losses have both grown with the acquired portfolio, though management has characterized asset quality trends as solid and net charge-offs as negligible. Finally, capital deployment will be in focus: the board raised the quarterly dividend 13% earlier this year, and the company retains authorized repurchase capacity. How management balances further buybacks, dividends, and any future acquisition activity will help shape the longer-term narrative.
AI Tools in My Research Process
One tool I find useful in preparing for earnings reports like this is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It helps filter stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals, allowing users to scan thousands of names with customizable criteria such as industry, market capitalization, and performance metrics. In my experience, this approach surfaces relevant ideas more efficiently when tracking regional banks ahead of key dates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for NIC turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NIC saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 58 of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
NIC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NIC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NIC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for NIC entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NIC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 57 cases where NIC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NIC just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where NIC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NIC advanced for three days, in 194 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NIC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.511) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (17.843) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. NIC's P/S Ratio (5.737) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.738).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks
Advertisement