GET DAILY SIGNALSNorthwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) Narrows Q3 Loss and Raises 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of $29.84 million, or $0.71 per share, narrowing from a loss of $29.89 million, or $0.73 per share, a year earlier.
- Operating revenue rose to $177.97 million from $164.73 million in the prior-year quarter.
- The company raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance to a range of $3.10 to $3.20 per share, up from its previous outlook of $2.95 to $3.15.
- Nine-month earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.62, up 6.6% from adjusted EPS of $1.52 in the same period of 2025.
- Management announced its largest dividend increase since 2012, lifting the indicated annual dividend to $2.00 per share and extending a 71-year streak of dividend growth.
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Why This Quarter Matters for a Seasonal Utility
Northwest Natural Holding Company operates regulated natural gas and water utilities where earnings follow a clear seasonal pattern. Most revenue and profit arrive in the first and fourth quarters during peak winter heating demand, while the third quarter usually shows a loss. Investors therefore focus less on the quarterly bottom line and more on signs of cost control, regulatory outcomes, customer growth, and the direction of full-year guidance. With new rates effective in Oregon and Washington plus a constructive settlement for the Texas gas utility, this report provides a useful checkpoint on whether the strategy is supporting stronger annual results.
The Reported Numbers
In the third quarter of 2026, NWN posted a net loss of $29.84 million, or $0.71 per share, compared with a net loss of $29.89 million, or $0.73 per share, in the same period of 2025. Operating revenue increased to $177.97 million from $164.73 million, reflecting improved margins across the businesses. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Year-to-date, EPS for the first nine months of 2026 reached $1.62, a 6.6% increase from adjusted EPS of $1.52 in the comparable 2025 period. The gain came mainly from higher contributions at SiEnergy in Texas and the benefit of new rates in Oregon and Washington operations.
Management attributed the better outcome to disciplined cost management and favorable operations and maintenance trends. This led to an increase in full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $3.10–$3.20 from the prior range of $2.95–$3.15, while the capital expenditure plan of $500 million to $550 million was reaffirmed.
Market Response and Investor Focus
Shares of NWN moved modestly higher in after-hours trading after the release. The reaction aligned with a third-quarter loss that improved slightly year over year and, more importantly, with the upward revision to full-year guidance. Because utility earnings concentrate in the winter months, investors typically emphasize the annual outlook and forward comments over any single quarterly result. The guidance increase, paired with the largest dividend hike in more than a decade, supported a constructive tone around execution ahead of the 2026–2027 heating season. Higher depreciation and financing costs remain notable offsets to watch.
Key Items on the Horizon
Several factors will shape results in the coming quarters. The company begins the winter season with new rates in Washington and Oregon, including the October final order on the Alternative Rate Mechanism that added a $13 million revenue requirement. These adjustments should help margins as demand rises.
On the regulatory side, the SiEnergy rate-case settlement in Texas, completed September 1, delivered an $8.6 million revenue requirement increase and opens the door for further recovery through the gas reliability infrastructure program. The company is also advancing multiyear rate-making plans in Oregon, with an initial filing expected in 2028.
Management kept its long-term EPS growth target of 4% to 6% through 2030, with potential expansion to 5% to 7% if the MX3 gas storage project advances. That $300 million FERC-regulated expansion remains on schedule for a notice to proceed by late 2027. Customer growth at SiEnergy and Northwest Natural Water, continued cost discipline, and the path of financing costs will all be important variables to track.
Enhancing Analysis with Tickeron Tools
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for NWN turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NWN saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 99 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 54 of the 99 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 55%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NWN just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where NWN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
NWN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NWN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +2.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWN advanced for three days, in 176 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 98 of 194 cases where NWN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for NWN moved below the 200-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
NWN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.385) is normal, around the industry mean (1.456). P/E Ratio (17.161) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.032). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.314) is also within normal values, averaging (1.861). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.572) is also within normal values, averaging (2.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NWN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 44, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries maintains natural gas distribution system
Industry GasDistributors
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