GET DAILY SIGNALSODDITY Tech (ODD) Shows Sequential Improvement in Q3 Despite Ongoing Headwinds
Key Takeaways
- ODDITY Tech reported third-quarter 2026 net revenue of $144.98 million, a 2% decline year over year but better than the company's own outlook for a roughly 5% decline.
- Net income came in at $11.2 million, down from $17.75 million a year earlier, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.37 compared with $0.40 in the prior-year period.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $22 million landed ahead of the company's $18 million to $20 million guidance range.
- Management raised its full-year 2026 outlook, now expecting net revenue to decline approximately 18.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $32 million to $34 million.
- More than 80% of net revenue came from repeat sales, underscoring customer loyalty even as the flagship IL MAKIAGE brand works through an advertising-account disruption.
- For more context, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on Tickeron's dedicated pages for ODD.
- Discover how automated strategies are navigating this market by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Putting the Quarter in Perspective
ODDITY Tech's third-quarter results arrive at a pivotal moment for the beauty and wellness company. After a 25% revenue decline in the second quarter driven by a technical disruption at IL MAKIAGE's largest advertising partner, investors have been watching closely for evidence that the business is stabilizing. The report serves as a progress check on management's recovery plan while newer brands—SpoiledChild and METHODIQ—continue to scale. With the company actively repurchasing shares and maintaining a sizable cash position, the quarter also signals how confident leadership remains in the platform's long-term growth trajectory heading into 2027.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
ODDITY Tech reported third-quarter 2026 net revenue of $144.98 million, down 2% from $147.9 million in the prior-year quarter. The result exceeded management's guidance for a roughly 5% decline and reflected a sharp sequential improvement from the second quarter's 25% drop. Net income was $11.2 million, compared with $17.75 million a year ago, while diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.23 versus $0.28.
On an adjusted basis, the company delivered diluted EPS of $0.37, down from $0.40, and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, above its $18 million to $20 million outlook. Gross margin was 67.4%, down from 71.6% a year earlier, partly reflecting a lower average order value. Free cash flow was $10 million for the quarter. The company ended the period with $561 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Management also raised full-year 2026 guidance, now projecting a net revenue decline of approximately 18.5% and adjusted EBITDA between $32 million and $34 million. SpoiledChild remained a bright spot, on track for roughly $350 million in 2026 revenue and growth of at least 35%, while the newer METHODIQ brand is outpacing SpoiledChild's first-year performance.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the report had been cautious following the steep second-quarter decline, but investors appeared encouraged by the faster-than-expected revenue recovery and the raised full-year outlook. The sequential improvement—from a 25% decline to just a 2% decline—was the clearest signal that the IL MAKIAGE advertising disruption is easing. Strong repeat-purchase behavior, which accounted for more than 80% of net revenue, reinforced the view that the underlying brand remains healthy. Still, profitability pressures from lower average order value and ongoing investment in new brands tempered enthusiasm, leaving the market focused on whether first-order demand can normalize in 2027.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, management's stated goal is to return ODDITY Tech to growth in 2027, including a recovery at IL MAKIAGE. The company has not yet provided formal 2027 guidance, but leadership described the upcoming product slate as its most exciting to date, with a fourth brand planned for launch in 2027.
Several factors will be central to the next phase. First, investors should monitor whether the advertising-account dislocation at IL MAKIAGE is fully resolved, since first-order revenue still declined by roughly high-teens percentage points year over year. Second, margin trajectory matters: gross margin has been pressured by a lower average order value, and management has indicated it hopes the worst first-order declines are behind it.
Third, watch the scaling of SpoiledChild and METHODIQ. SpoiledChild is on pace for at least 35% growth, while METHODIQ is expanding into medical-grade categories and plans to add prescription injectable therapies in 2027. Finally, capital allocation remains a key theme, with the company having repurchased 11.7 million shares for $163 million during the first nine months of the year, reducing shares outstanding by roughly 20%.
My Experience with Tickeron’s AI Tools
In my own research process, I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating companies like ODD. It helps me quickly filter for comparable names based on technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals, which adds useful context without replacing deeper fundamental analysis. The tool has become a regular part of how I cross-check ideas across the consumer sector.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for ODD turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ODD saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 56 of the 60 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ODD moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 20 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ODD turned negative on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 28 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ODD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 40 cases where ODD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for ODD moved above the 200-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ODD advanced for three days, in 130 of 181 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ODD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 85 of 111 cases where ODD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ODD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.826) is normal, around the industry mean (21.731). ODD has a moderately high P/E Ratio (80.720) as compared to the industry average of (16.288). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.518). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.521) is also within normal values, averaging (1.902).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ODD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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