GET DAILY SIGNALSOn Holding AG (ONON): Strong +17.2% Q3 Sales Growth Despite Market Headwinds
Key Takeaways
- On Holding AG reported record third-quarter net sales of CHF 931.4 million, up 17.2% year over year.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at CHF 0.54, well above the consensus estimate of roughly CHF 0.39.
- Gross margin reached 66.9% excluding a CHF 52.6 million U.S. tariff refund, the highest level in the company's history.
- Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rose 25.0% to CHF 393.3 million, lifting the DTC channel to 42.2% of total revenue.
- Management kept its full-year sales growth outlook unchanged, but raised its gross margin guidance for 2026.
- Despite the earnings beat, shares fell about 8% in intraday trading as investors weighed the one-off tariff benefit and the unchanged sales outlook.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
On Holding AG, the Swiss performance sportswear brand behind the "On" running shoes, delivered its results for the third quarter and nine-month period ended September 30, 2026, against a backdrop of a promotional footwear market and softer demand signals across the broader athletic category. This report matters because it tests whether On can keep growing at a premium pace while defending its full-price discipline and expanding margins. Investors were also watching closely after the company trimmed its full-year sales outlook in August and after the prior quarter's results reset expectations. With a new chief financial officer, Frank Sluis, and heavy strategic investments in innovation, retail stores, and new sports such as football and golf, the quarter offered an important read on On's momentum entering the holiday season. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
On Holding reported third-quarter net sales of CHF 931.4 million, a new quarterly record and an increase of 17.2% on a reported basis (17.8% at constant currency). The figure was marginally ahead of the consensus estimate of about CHF 929.8 million. Wholesale revenue rose 12.2% to CHF 538.2 million, while DTC revenue grew 25.0% to CHF 393.3 million, nearly double the wholesale pace. DTC share of net sales reached 42.2%, up 2.6 percentage points from the prior year.
Adjusted diluted EPS was CHF 0.54, comfortably above the CHF 0.39 consensus. Net income climbed 36.9% to CHF 162.8 million. Gross margin, including CHF 52.6 million in U.S. tariff refunds, hit a record 72.6%; excluding those refunds, the underlying gross margin was 66.9%, also a company high. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose 42.7% to CHF 256.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.9%. On raised its gross margin outlook to around 66% for the year, up from "at least 65%," while leaving its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 19.5% to 20% unchanged.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite an earnings beat on the bottom line, ONON shares slid roughly 8% in intraday trading, with futures also pointing lower in pre-market activity. The negative reaction reflected investor concerns that profitability was temporarily inflated by a one-off CHF 52.6 million U.S. tariff refund, while the company left its full-year sales growth outlook unchanged rather than upgrading it. Analysts noted that excluding the refund, the underlying gross margin of 66.9% was solid, but the absence of a top-line guidance raise appeared to weigh on sentiment. Broader worries about a "weak" sneaker market and a promotional retail environment also contributed to the cautious tone heading into the report.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, management expects sales growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter as new products reach consumers ahead of the holiday shopping season. On reiterated its full-year constant-currency sales growth outlook in the low-20% range, implying sales of roughly CHF 3.47 billion to CHF 3.56 billion at current exchange rates.
Several factors will shape investor sentiment in the coming quarters. First, the wholesale channel remains a key swing factor; the company said partner inventories are healthy and that the spring 2027 order book has built well, but a promotional market could pressure sell-through and full-price discipline. Second, the rollout of the Superfoam platform and new launches such as the Cloudsurfer 3 will test demand for On's innovation pipeline.
Third, the company's expansion into new sports, including football and golf, is still in its earliest stages, while its apparel push continues to grow faster than footwear. Finally, investors should monitor cost and margin trends, the impact of tariff assumptions on profitability, and the ongoing leadership transition as a new CFO takes the helm. These catalysts will help determine whether On can sustain market-leading growth from an ever-larger base. From what I see, monitoring these areas closely will be key for positioning.
Enhancing Analysis with AI Tools
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating companies like this one. It helps filter for technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals across thousands of stocks and ETFs, making it easier to spot comparisons and monitor momentum shifts. The tool has become a regular part of my research workflow for identifying setups and staying on top of industry trends without manual effort.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ONON's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ONON moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 28 of the 31 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 59 cases where ONON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
ONON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONON as a result. In 67 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONON just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The 10-day moving average for ONON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +8.73% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONON advanced for three days, in 212 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 115 of 192 cases where ONON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ONON's P/B Ratio (6.533) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.998). ONON has a moderately high P/E Ratio (31.133) as compared to the industry average of (12.296). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. ONON's P/S Ratio (4.439) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.162).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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