GET DAILY SIGNALSOscar Health (OSCR) Consolidates Near $32 After Strong Q3: Focus on the +26% Three-Month Gain
Key Takeaways
- Oscar Health (OSCR) traded roughly flat over the trailing 30 days, edging about 2% lower to the low-$32 range, even after a standout third-quarter report.
- Third-quarter 2026 EPS came in at $0.49, well above consensus, on revenue of approximately $5.14 billion, up roughly 70% year over year.
- Management raised full-year 2026 operating income guidance for the third time, to a range of $850 million to $950 million.
- Membership reached 2.7 million, up 27% year over year, with a record-low SG&A expense ratio of 14% and a medical loss ratio of 84%.
- The stock remains up roughly 26% over the trailing three months and has more than doubled over the trailing 12 months, reflecting a broader re-rating.
- Explore additional detail on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for OSCR.
Current Market Snapshot
OSCR shares have been consolidating after a powerful run. In the most recent session, the stock traded near $32.60, roughly 2% below the level seen about a month earlier. The company's third-quarter earnings release on November 5 triggered a sharp but short-lived intraday spike to about $38.50 before shares pulled back, illustrating how much of the strong performance had already been priced in ahead of the report. Despite the muted 30-day move, the longer-term trend remains firmly positive: the stock is up approximately 26% over the trailing three months and more than doubled over the trailing 12 months, outpacing many peers in the healthcare and technology-driven insurance space. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Pattern Search Engine to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Oscar Health (OSCR) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Oscar Health is a technology-driven health insurance company founded in 2012 and publicly listed since March 2021. Built around a proprietary full-stack technology platform, the company offers individual and family plans primarily on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, along with small-group coverage. Its competitive differentiation centers on member engagement tools, a consumer-friendly mobile app, virtual care capabilities, and data-driven operational efficiency. Those advantages are reflected in the company's cost structure: its selling, general, and administrative expense ratio reached a record-low 14% in the third quarter, while its medical loss ratio improved 450 basis points year over year to 84%. Oscar ended the quarter with roughly $9 billion in cash and investments and $1.4 billion in excess capital at its insurance subsidiaries, providing flexibility to fund growth.
Recent Developments Driving OSCR
The dominant catalyst over the past month was the third-quarter earnings report. Oscar posted EPS of $0.49, far above the consensus expectation for a modest loss, on revenue of approximately $5.14 billion, a roughly 70% year-over-year increase. Net income reached $167 million, and adjusted EBITDA was about $207 million. Management attributed the strength to favorable risk adjustment, better-than-expected utilization, and disciplined cost control, noting a $250 million revenue benefit from updated risk adjustment data in the quarter. From what I see, this level of outperformance stands out even in a strong year for the sector.
Management raised its full-year 2026 operating income outlook for a third time, to $850 million to $950 million, and lifted revenue guidance to $19.0 billion to $19.3 billion. Membership grew 27% year over year to 2.7 million, and the company is entering open enrollment with coverage expanded to 713 counties, up 24%. Separately, several analysts raised price targets on the stock during September and October, including moves to $36, $42, $48, and $49 from UBS, Raymond James, Piper Sandler, and Barclays, respectively. Even so, shares pulled back after the earnings report, with investors weighing expectations for higher fourth-quarter medical costs and rising expenses tied to open enrollment and 2027 growth investments.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the key near-term driver is the annual open enrollment period and how membership growth translates into 2027 revenue. Investors will also watch the fourth-quarter medical loss ratio, which management has signaled will rise seasonally, as well as any further updates to risk adjustment assumptions. Broader themes to monitor include the trajectory of healthcare utilization and medical costs, competitive pricing in the individual market, and the regulatory environment around enhanced subsidies, which management has said shows little near-term risk of change. The company has reiterated a long-term target of at least $4 in earnings per share by 2029, making sustained margin improvement and disciplined expense management central to the investment case. As always, these factors carry both upside and downside risk and are not a basis for specific investment decisions. I’m watching this closely as the open enrollment data comes in.
Using AI Tools to Refine the View
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. In my view, combining that with the fundamental picture gives a clearer sense of momentum without replacing traditional research. The platform’s data-driven signals helped highlight how OSCR stacks up against peers on recent performance metrics, which aligns with the re-rating already underway.
Disclaimer
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OSCR in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026
OSCR moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OSCR as a result. In 65 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OSCR just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where OSCR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The 10-day moving average for OSCR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 16 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +9.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OSCR advanced for three days, in 234 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 225 cases where OSCR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OSCR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
OSCR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OSCR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.610) is normal, around the industry mean (3.520). P/E Ratio (19.277) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.353). OSCR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.618) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
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