GET DAILY SIGNALSPatria (PAX) Q3 2026 Earnings: AUM Growth and Fundraising Strength Stand Out
Key Takeaways
- Patria reported Fee Related Earnings (FRE) of $52.8 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 7% year over year.
- Distributable Earnings (DE) totaled $46.9 million, or $0.30 per share, roughly flat versus the same period in 2025.
- The FRE margin slipped to 53.7% from 58.5% a year earlier, reflecting integration costs from recent acquisitions.
- Assets Under Management (AUM) reached $62.4 billion, up 22% year over year, while fundraising of $6.9 billion year to date met the full-year target one quarter early.
- The company narrowed its full-year 2026 FRE guidance to $225–$235 million and reiterated its 2027 target of $260–$290 million.
Why This Quarter Matters for Patria's Strategy
Patria is a Latin America-focused alternative asset manager that has spent recent years diversifying away from its Brazilian roots into Europe and the United States. The third quarter serves as a key checkpoint on that transformation, testing whether rising fee-earning assets can translate into profit growth even as acquisition-driven costs weigh on margins. The report also arrives shortly after Brazil's October 2026 election, making it a timely gauge of how political and currency volatility affects the firm's earnings base. For investors, the quarter's fundraising strength and updated 2026 and 2027 guidance provide a clearer read on the durability of Patria's growth strategy. To put these numbers in context, I ran a quick scan with Tickeron’s AI Screener.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Patria reported total fee revenues of $98.3 million, up 16% from a year earlier, driven by management fees of $101.7 million, which rose 17% year over year. Fee Related Earnings came in at $52.8 million, a 7% increase from the prior-year period, though the FRE margin contracted to 53.7% from 58.5%. Distributable Earnings were $46.9 million, or $0.30 per share, essentially flat versus $46.8 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), net income attributable to shareholders was $7.2 million, down from $22.5 million a year ago, largely due to non-cash items such as amortization of acquisition-related intangibles and equity-based compensation. Total AUM reached $62.4 billion, up 22% year over year, while Fee-Earning AUM (FEAUM) grew 24% to $48.1 billion. Net accrued performance fees stood at $260 million, or $1.64 per share. Management narrowed full-year 2026 FRE guidance to $225–$235 million from the prior $220–$240 million range.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Patria's shares traded near 52-week lows following the release, with the stock down roughly 3% on the day and about 38% year to date, according to market data. The muted reaction highlights a tension between strong operational momentum and investor concern over near-term profitability. Record fundraising and double-digit AUM growth are being partly overshadowed by margin compression, uncertainty around the timing of credit-related incentive fees, and caution toward asset managers with Latin American exposure following the Brazilian election. Management's narrower guidance range and its reiterated 2027 targets signal confidence, but the market has remained focused on when acquisition-integration costs will begin to subside.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
Patria enters the fourth quarter expecting a meaningful sequential uptick in total revenues, helped by seasonal incentive fees and structuring fees from recent bespoke mandates. Management also anticipates a higher FRE margin in the fourth quarter, reflecting cost discipline alongside those higher-margin fee streams.
Beyond the current quarter, investors will be watching whether the firm can deliver on its 2027 targets of $260–$290 million in FRE, FRE margins of 58% to 60%, and $8 billion in fundraising. With roughly $4.8 billion in pending FEAUM, there is visible runway for fee growth, though the pace of deployment and the performance of credit funds with Brazilian exposure remain key variables. Additional factors to monitor include the integration of recent acquisitions such as Solis, RBR, and WP Global Partners, the trajectory of the management fee rate, and any impact from Brazilian political and currency conditions. The company's December Investor Day is expected to offer updated long-term growth expectations through 2030.
My Take on Using Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my research process, Tickeron’s AI Screener has proven helpful for quickly filtering stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. It allows me to scan thousands of names with customizable criteria like industry, market cap, and performance metrics, helping surface ideas that align with a particular strategy without manual effort. This kind of tool fits naturally into reviewing names like PAX alongside peers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for PAX turns negative, indicating new downward trend
PAX saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 97 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 69 of the 97 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PAX turned negative on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
PAX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAX entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAX advanced for three days, in 206 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
PAX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.576) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (17.333) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.069) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.065) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
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