GET DAILY SIGNALSPEDEVCO (PED) Shows Revenue Strength in Third Quarter Despite Net Loss
Key Takeaways
- PEDEVCO reported third quarter 2026 oil and gas revenue of $35.5 million, up sharply from $7.0 million a year earlier and above the roughly $31.05 million consensus estimate.
- The company posted a net loss of $(9.2) million, or $(0.70) per share, compared with consensus expectations for a profit of about $0.18 per share, largely because of non-cash derivative losses.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) came in at $14.7 million, up from $4.3 million in the prior-year quarter.
- Production averaged 5,850 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, down 14% sequentially due to temporary shut-ins tied to drilling, completions, and well-conversion work.
- Management indicated revenue landed slightly ahead of its own expectations and guided toward sequentially stronger production in the fourth quarter.
- For additional detail on PEDEVCO's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts, explore these dedicated pages.
- Discover Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven strategies are tracking market opportunities in real time.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
PEDEVCO's third quarter 2026 results mark another reporting period shaped by the company's October 2025 Juniper Merger, which materially expanded its production base across the Rocky Mountain region. The quarter reflects a much larger operating footprint than the year-ago period, making year-over-year comparisons dramatic. Investors are focused on how well the combined platform is integrating, whether cost savings are materializing, and how derivative contracts are influencing reported profitability. With production temporarily constrained by planned completion and conversion activity, this report also offers a key checkpoint on management's ability to deliver the sequential production recovery it has signaled for the fourth quarter.
Reported Results
PEDEVCO reported oil and gas revenue of $35.5 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, up from $7.0 million in the same period last year and above the approximately $31.05 million consensus estimate. Net loss was $(9.2) million, or $(0.70) per share, compared with a net loss of $(0.3) million, or $(0.07) per share, a year earlier. The bottom-line result was pressured by a $16.6 million net loss on derivative contracts, which largely reflects non-cash mark-to-market valuation changes rather than core operating performance.
Adjusted EBITDA was $14.7 million, up from $4.3 million in the prior-year quarter. Production totaled 538,231 BOE, or 5,850 BOE per day, down 14% from the second quarter. Management attributed the sequential decline to temporary shut-ins associated with drilling and completion activity in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin and Powder River Basin, as well as accelerated rod conversions originally scheduled for the fourth quarter. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
PEDEVCO shares traded lower following the release, according to earnings call coverage, as investors weighed a top-line beat against a headline net loss driven by non-cash derivative charges. The mismatch between revenue strength and reported earnings per share highlights how hedging activity can obscure underlying operating performance in energy names. Sentiment heading into the report had been framed around sequential production trends and integration progress, and the temporary production pullback tied to completion and conversion work added a cautious tone to the print. Management's emphasis on wells returning to production and a fourth-quarter rebound was central to the company's messaging.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors should watch whether PEDEVCO delivers the sequentially stronger production it has signaled for the fourth quarter of 2026. Management noted that shut-in wells have returned to production and that accelerated completion work should support a rebound, making production volumes and lease operating costs the key operational metrics to track next quarter.
Commodity price movements and the associated derivative hedge book remain important swing factors. Because the company is required to hedge a substantial portion of projected production under its credit agreement, mark-to-market adjustments can continue to create volatility in reported earnings even when operations perform in line with plan.
Additional factors to monitor include the progress of the newly drilled Powder River Basin well scheduled for completion near year-end, the performance of the recently completed Hastings well in the D-J Basin, and the impact of recent non-core asset sales on the company's high-growth portfolio. Cost discipline, integration synergies from the Juniper Merger, and balance-sheet management under the revolving credit facility will also shape how investors interpret the company's trajectory through early 2027.
Exploring AI Tools for Energy Analysis
In my view, Tickeron’s AI Screener stands out as a practical way to filter energy stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It helps surface ideas across thousands of names without manual effort, letting users focus on breakout candidates or sector trends that align with their own research process. I find it useful when comparing names like PEDEVCO against peers during earnings season.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
PED in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 10, 2026
PED may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 38 cases where PED's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for PED crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The 50-day moving average for PED moved above the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +1.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PED advanced for three days, in 173 of 234 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 95 of 141 cases where PED Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PED moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PED as a result. In 91 of 106 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PED turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 48 of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.
PED moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PED declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 40 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.989) is normal, around the industry mean (3.610). P/E Ratio (-5.552) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.187). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.018) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PED’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PED’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of oil and gas exploration services
Industry OilGasProduction
Advertisement