GET DAILY SIGNALSPopular, Inc. (BPOP) Posts +34% Year-Over-Year EPS Growth in Q3
Key Takeaways
- Popular reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.21 for the third quarter, up 34% year over year and above the roughly $3.95 consensus estimate.
- Net interest income rose 8.1% to $698.9 million, but total revenue of $874.6 million came in just below the $887.6 million analysts expected.
- The company raised its quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.90 per share and repurchased $179 million of common stock.
- Net charge-offs fell to $73 million, or 0.73% annualized, down from $104 million in the prior quarter.
- Management lowered its full-year 2026 loan growth outlook to about 2% while raising net charge-off guidance to 80–90 basis points.
Why These Results Matter for Investors
Popular, Inc. is a leading financial holding company operating primarily in Puerto Rico and the mainland United States. Its quarterly earnings provide a direct window into the health of the Puerto Rican economy, which continues to benefit from employment gains, tourism, and federal disaster-recovery spending. For investors, the third-quarter report is particularly relevant because it shows whether the bank can maintain strong profitability amid higher funding costs and emerging commercial credit trends. After several years of solid returns, attention now turns to deposit trends, net interest margin stability, and whether management can continue delivering meaningful capital returns to shareholders without compromising balance sheet strength.
Breaking Down the Reported Figures
For the third quarter of 2026, Popular reported net income of $266 million, or $4.21 per diluted share, compared with $211 million, or $3.14 per diluted share, a year earlier. The result beat the consensus EPS estimate of about $3.95. Total revenue rose 7.4% year over year to $874.6 million, narrowly missing the $887.6 million analyst estimate. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Net interest income increased 8.1% to $698.9 million, supported by higher income from investment securities and commercial loans, while the net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.63% on a GAAP basis. Non-interest income came in at $176 million, down from the prior quarter but still above management’s guidance range. Operating expenses rose 4% sequentially to $506 million, driven largely by higher personnel costs. The company’s return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 15.8%, compared with 17.0% in the second quarter.
On the credit side, non-performing loans increased to $466 million, lifting the NPL ratio to 1.16% from 1.04%, while net charge-offs declined to 0.73% annualized. Management raised its full-year net charge-off guidance to 80–90 basis points and trimmed its 2026 loan growth outlook to approximately 2%.
Market Reaction and What Investors Are Weighing
Popular’s third-quarter report drew a muted response from the market. The stock traded near $162 shortly after the announcement, reflecting a profit beat that was offset by a revenue miss, a slightly narrower net interest margin, and softer-than-expected tangible book value per share of $86.30. Investors appeared to balance the strong bottom line and continued capital returns against the mixed revenue picture and a more cautious loan-growth outlook. The 20% dividend increase and ongoing buyback activity signaled confidence in the bank’s capital position, but the upward revision to net charge-off guidance tempered enthusiasm.
Key Areas to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, investors should focus on how Popular manages its credit and growth trade-offs. Management now expects full-year 2026 loan growth of roughly 2%, down from a prior 3%–4% range, reflecting softer auto and lease activity and more moderate commercial lending. At the same time, full-year net charge-offs are now guided to 80–90 basis points, though management offered an early 2027 expectation of 60–75 basis points, suggesting it views recent commercial credit deterioration as borrower-specific rather than systemic.
Funding and margin trends also remain important. The bank expects net interest income to grow approximately 8.5% for the year and projects fourth-quarter non-interest income of about $170 million. Deposit costs and the level of Puerto Rico public-sector balances will be key variables, as will the pace of investment in securities at higher yields. From what I see, capital returns will be closely watched. With a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 16.06% and management signaling quarterly repurchases in the $150 million–$200 million range into 2027, investors will monitor whether the bank can sustain both growth investment and shareholder payouts without eroding its strong capital base.
Using AI Tools to Refine My Analysis
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating bank stocks after earnings season. It helps me quickly compare fundamentals, technical patterns, and momentum across peers, giving a clearer picture of where BPOP stands relative to the broader sector without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for BPOP turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BPOP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 80 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BPOP's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BPOP just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where BPOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BPOP advanced for three days, in 200 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BPOP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
BPOP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BPOP entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BPOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.614) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (10.963) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.294) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks
Advertisement