GET DAILY SIGNALSQualys (QLYS) Recovery: Is a +11% Push to $225 in Sight?
Key Takeaways
- The $225 central target used here is the arithmetic mean of the three verified analyst price targets that sit above the current share price, not a published Street consensus.
- The broader average analyst price target across 22 analysts is roughly $189, below the stock's recent close near $203, underscoring how far shares have outpaced the Street.
- The full analyst target range is unusually wide — from $130 to $241 — with ratings concentrated at Hold.
- At about $203, reaching $225 implies roughly an 11% advance, a modest move for a stock that has already surged more than 50% in 2026.
- Supports include an earnings beat, raised full-year guidance, momentum in AI-driven risk management, and ongoing buybacks.
- The principal risks are compressing margins, a Hold-heavy consensus, and concerns about AI disruption in vulnerability management.
- For more on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings, explore Tickeron's dedicated pages.
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Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
According to S&P Global data, 22 analysts cover QLYS with an average price target of about $189 and a consensus rating of Hold. The spread is extraordinarily wide, from $130 at Morgan Stanley (Sell) to $241 at J.P. Morgan (Hold), reflecting genuine disagreement about whether the company's AI-era growth is durable.
Because the stock has already risen above the overall average target, the $225 figure in this article is the mean of only the three current targets that sit above the share price: J.P. Morgan's $241 (October 30, 2026), Yorkville Ives' $230 Buy initiation by Dan Ives (October 7, 2026), and Northland's $208 Buy (raised from $161). For context, other recent targets include TD Cowen's $200 (Hold), Jefferies' $185 (Hold), RBC Capital's $180 (Hold), Wedbush's $175 (Hold, a September downgrade), and Piper Sandler's $175 (Neutral). The overall average of roughly $189 is below the share price, not above it — a notable gap given the stock's run. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Shares closed near $203 on November 9, 2026, and slipped in after-hours trading after the company reported third-quarter results. From that level, reaching $225 requires about an 11% gain — a modest move.
Fundamentals remain solid. Qualys reported adjusted EPS of $2.12, above the $1.96 consensus, on revenue of $188 million, up 11% year over year. It raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $736.9 million–$738.9 million and adjusted EPS guidance to $8.07–$8.14. The stock trades at roughly 33–35 times trailing earnings and about 25 times forward earnings — a premium valuation that leaves limited room for error.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Raised full-year guidance and a recent streak of quarterly beats suggest improving execution and demand.
- The AI-native Risk Operations Center and Enterprise TruRisk Management platform are gaining traction through a partner-first strategy.
- An expanded share-repurchase authorization of roughly $1.6 billion supports EPS and returns capital to shareholders.
- The stock's 52-week high near $235 shows the market has already been willing to price shares above $225.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Adjusted operating margin slipped to 46% from 47% a year earlier, a concern that helped trigger the post-earnings decline.
- The consensus remains Hold-heavy, with most individual targets below the current price, signaling limited Street conviction in further upside.
- Firms such as TD Cowen have flagged AI-driven disruption in vulnerability management as platform consolidators enter the space.
- A rich valuation leaves the stock exposed to multiple compression if growth or margins disappoint.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
Qualys has been volatile, ranging from a 52-week low of $74.51 (set in April 2026) to a high of $235.55 (October 30, 2026). The $230–$235 area marks meaningful resistance near the prior peak, while $200 is a psychological support level, with the post-earnings reaction in the high-$180s a nearby cushion below that. A durable advance toward $225 would likely require clearing the $230 zone with conviction. From what I see, monitoring these levels closely helps frame realistic expectations.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon. Investors should watch the next quarterly report and guidance, billings growth, the trajectory of operating margins, and analyst revisions — which have been unusually divided. Competitive developments in AI-driven vulnerability management and broader software-sector sentiment will also matter. I’m watching this closely as revisions come in.
AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
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Final Assessment
Whether Qualys can reach $225 depends on sustaining recent execution while defending margins in a competitive, AI-disrupted market. The $225 target — an average of the three above-price analyst targets — is only about 11% above the recent close and sits below the stock's October peak, so it is not an extreme ask. Yet the Hold-heavy consensus, the wide $130–$241 target range, and margin pressure all argue for caution. Strong guidance and buybacks provide support, but no analyst consensus guarantees the path. Investors should focus on margin trends, guidance, and revisions rather than treating $225 as a foregone conclusion.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Aroon Indicator for QLYS shows an upward move is likely
QLYS's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 211 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 163 of the 211 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QLYS advanced for three days, in 221 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QLYS moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QLYS as a result. In 51 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QLYS turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
QLYS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QLYS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
QLYS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QLYS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.716) is normal, around the industry mean (16.360). P/E Ratio (32.829) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.983) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.434) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.320) is also within normal values, averaging (104.492).
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a provider of cloud security and compliance solutions
Industry ComputerCommunications
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