GET DAILY SIGNALSRanpak Holdings (PACK) Reports Q4 Revenue Growth Amid Margin Challenges
Key Takeaways
- Ranpak reported fourth quarter 2025 net revenue of $111.9 million, up 6.6% year over year, or 2.2% on a constant-currency basis.
- The company posted a net loss of $9.5 million and a loss per share of $0.11, wider than the roughly $0.03 loss analysts had expected.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was $24.0 million, down 10.3% on a constant-currency basis.
- Automation equipment sales climbed 35.3% to $13.8 million, the company's fastest-growing revenue driver for the quarter.
- Management introduced 2026 guidance calling for net revenue of $415–$445 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $83.5–$95 million.
- For more on Ranpak's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the dedicated pages for the PACK ticker.
- To see how AI-driven trading strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK) provides paper-based protective packaging solutions, including consumable materials and automated equipment widely used in e-commerce fulfillment. The fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results matter because they show whether volume gains in North American e-commerce and the expanding automation segment can counter ongoing margin pressure from product mix, competitive rebates in Europe, and non-cash warrant provisions tied to key customers. After a year of declining Adjusted EBITDA, investors are watching for signs that automation can reach profitability and that gross margins can start to recover in 2026. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, Ranpak reported net revenue of $111.9 million, an increase of $6.9 million, or 6.6%, year over year (up 2.2% on a constant-currency basis). Growth was led by void-fill, which rose 7.6% to $52.3 million, and wrapping, up 11.7% to $11.5 million. Automated equipment sales jumped 35.3% to $13.8 million, while cushioning declined 4.5% to $34.3 million.
The company posted a net loss of $9.5 million, or $0.11 per share, versus a net loss of $8.0 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.0 million, down 5.1% as reported and down 10.3% on a constant-currency basis. Gross margin compressed to 32.6% from 39.4%, reflecting higher production costs, unfavorable mix from large e-commerce customers, and the non-cash impact of warrants. For the full year, net revenue reached $395.0 million, with a net loss of $38.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $79.2 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of Ranpak fell sharply following the release, tumbling roughly 13% in premarket trading as investors reacted to the earnings-per-share miss despite the top-line growth. The wider-than-expected loss and the decline in Adjusted EBITDA underscored that revenue momentum has not yet translated into stronger profitability. Sentiment was also shaped by the non-cash warrant provisions related to the company's agreements with Amazon and Walmart, which created headwinds to both revenue and margins during the quarter. While automation's acceleration and North American e-commerce volume growth were viewed as positives, the softer margin profile and a still-challenging European environment weighed on near-term investor confidence.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Ranpak's 2026 guidance projects net revenue of $415 million to $445 million, representing growth of roughly 5.1% to 12.7%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $83.5 million to $95 million, implying growth of about 5.4% to 19.9%. Management also signaled expectations for automation growth of 30% to 50% in 2026, supported by what it described as its strongest order backlog ever.
A key milestone to watch is whether automation can turn profitable on an Adjusted EBITDA basis for the full year after reaching break-even in the fourth quarter. Investors should also monitor gross margin recovery, particularly in North America, where management sees opportunities from scale, better purchasing, and identified cost-out actions. Additional factors include the trajectory of European volumes and rebate activity, the pace of deleveraging toward the company's 2.5x to 3.0x leverage target, and the impact of non-cash warrant recognition. Energy costs and broader e-commerce demand will remain important variables, given management's acknowledgment that uncertainty in the Middle East and Europe could influence results. From what I see, these elements will shape how the story unfolds.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
One tool I turn to when reviewing earnings and scanning for related opportunities is Tickeron's AI Screener. It helps me filter stocks quickly by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics, which adds efficiency to analyzing reports like this one without replacing the detailed review of company-specific data.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
PACK's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for PACK moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 32 of the 40 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PACK as a result. In 50 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PACK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where PACK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +7.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PACK advanced for three days, in 225 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PACK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
PACK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PACK entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PACK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.624) is normal, around the industry mean (1.355). PACK has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-8.591) as compared to the industry average of (16.444). PACK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.860) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.023). PACK has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.033). P/S Ratio (0.780) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PACK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a blank check company, which engages in a merger, stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, and recapitalization,
Industry ContainersPackaging
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