GET DAILY SIGNALSRestaurant Brands International (QSR) Q3 Earnings: Burger King Momentum Offsets Popeyes Softness
Key Takeaways
- Restaurant Brands International posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10, topping the consensus estimate of $1.08, while revenue rose 3.1% to $2.53 billion, slightly below expectations of $2.54 billion.
- Global comparable sales grew 3.8%, marking a fifth consecutive quarter above 3%.
- Burger King U.S. was the standout, with comparable sales up 8.4%, while Popeyes lagged with a 1.8% global comparable sales decline.
- Adjusted operating income (AOI) rose 5.0% to $737 million, and organic AOI grew 6.7% excluding foreign exchange and the Restaurant Holdings segment.
- Management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook for 8% organic AOI growth and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share.
- Shares slipped roughly 1% in morning trading as the modest revenue miss offset the earnings beat.
Putting the Quarter in Context
Restaurant Brands International (QSR), the parent of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, reported third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, covering the three months ended September 30, 2026. This quarter offers a useful test of whether Burger King’s U.S. turnaround under the “Reclaim the Flame” plan can offset ongoing softness at Popeyes. I find comparable sales trends especially telling as a signal of consumer demand in today’s price-sensitive quick-service environment. With more than 33,000 locations globally and roughly $49 billion in annual system-wide sales, QSR’s results provide a broad window into restaurant-industry health, franchisee profitability, and progress toward investment-grade leverage goals.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
QSR reported total revenue of $2.53 billion for the third quarter, up 3.1% from $2.45 billion a year earlier but slightly below the consensus estimate of $2.54 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $1.10, exceeding the consensus of $1.08 and rising 6.9% from $1.03 in the prior-year period. Net income attributable to common shareholders climbed to $542 million, or $1.54 per share, up from $315 million, or $0.96 per share, a year ago, aided in part by discrete tax benefits.
Consolidated system-wide sales grew 6.2% on a constant-currency basis to $12.97 billion. Global comparable sales rose 3.8%, driven by an 8.4% increase at Burger King U.S. and 3.9% growth in the International segment. Tim Hortons and Firehouse Subs each posted 1.5% comparable sales growth, while Popeyes declined 1.8% globally. Adjusted operating income increased 5.0% to $737 million, and organic AOI growth was 6.7% excluding foreign exchange and the Restaurant Holdings segment. The company generated over $500 million in free cash flow and ended the quarter with net restaurant growth of 3.0%, bringing the system to 33,401 locations. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market’s initial response was muted. Despite the earnings beat, shares slipped roughly 1% in morning trading, reflecting investor focus on the modest revenue miss and the ongoing softness at Popeyes. The mixed results highlighted a clear divergence within the portfolio: Burger King’s U.S. momentum, which widened its sales-growth gap versus burger competitors to nearly 10 percentage points, contrasted with Popeyes’ negative comparable sales. Sentiment remained broadly constructive, however, as management reaffirmed its full-year guidance and continued returning capital to shareholders, including $1.3 billion in dividends and buybacks through the first nine months of 2026.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
QSR reaffirmed its expectation for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026, along with its longer-term targets of average comparable sales growth above 3% and average organic AOI growth above 8% through 2028. This gives investors a clear framework for evaluating future quarters.
The most important swing factor is Popeyes. Management acknowledged that a return to positive same-store sales will take longer than previously anticipated, citing a less-incremental $6 Big Box promotion and the deliberate scaling back of its wings offering. Investors will watch whether improving traffic and service-satisfaction metrics translate into positive comparable sales.
Cost and margin dynamics also deserve attention. Record-high beef inflation has pressured system profitability and could slow the pace of Burger King restaurant remodels. The company continues to work toward investment-grade leverage, targeting the low-to-mid 3x net leverage range by 2028, with Moody’s having upgraded QSR’s corporate rating to Ba2 in September.
Finally, monitor capital-allocation progress and the refranchising pipeline. QSR aims to sunset its Restaurant Holdings segment by the end of 2027, with roughly 200 company-owned Burger King restaurants expected to be refranchised by year-end 2026. These moves are central to the company’s long-term shift toward a more asset-light, franchise-driven model.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When analyzing earnings like these, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter for comparable stocks and spot emerging patterns across the restaurant sector. The tool lets me apply technical and fundamental criteria in one place, helping me confirm whether QSR’s performance stands out relative to peers. It has become a regular part of my workflow for earnings season reviews.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for QSR turns negative, indicating new downward trend
QSR saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 49 of the 81 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QSR moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 49%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 71 cases where QSR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
QSR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QSR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
QSR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for QSR entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QSR just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where QSR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The 10-day moving average for QSR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QSR advanced for three days, in 186 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QSR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.614) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.388). P/E Ratio (19.626) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.379). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.876) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.544) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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an operator of restaurants
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