GET DAILY SIGNALSRigetti Computing (RGTI) Prepares for Q3 2026 Earnings With Revenue Volatility in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
- Wall Street consensus points to a sequential revenue pullback, reflecting the irregular timing of high-value quantum system sales to government and research customers.
- Analysts expect an adjusted loss per share of roughly $0.05, with revenue estimates clustered near $3.67 million for the quarter.
- Investors are watching technology milestones, including the company's 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and progress toward higher gate fidelity (a measure of computational accuracy).
- Strategic catalysts such as the U.S. Department of Commerce funding agreement and the Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) collaboration remain central to the long-term narrative.
- For more context on this ticker, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on additional pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots for additional market insights.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Rigetti Computing is a full-stack quantum computing company that sells on-premises quantum processing units (QPUs) and provides cloud access to its superconducting systems. Its quarterly results tend to be volatile because revenue is driven by a small number of high-value system deliveries to national laboratories, government agencies, and research institutions. That makes each report a key checkpoint for investors gauging whether early-stage commercialization is translating into durable demand. With shares having declined roughly 18% during the third quarter before rallying sharply into the report, this print will test whether technology progress and government-backed initiatives can outweigh widening losses and rising research and development (R&D) costs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Are Expecting
For the third quarter of 2026, consensus estimates call for an adjusted loss of approximately $0.05 per share on revenue near $3.67 million, according to aggregated analyst data. That top-line figure would mark a sequential decline from the $5.13 million reported in the second quarter, underscoring the lumpy nature of system-based revenue, while still representing strong year-over-year growth from the roughly $1.9 million recorded in the prior-year period.
In the second quarter, Rigetti posted revenue of about $5.13 million, up sharply year over year, while its adjusted loss came in at $0.05 per share. Operating expenses climbed to roughly $30.3 million as R&D spending accelerated, and the company ended the period with approximately $541.3 million in cash and investments and no debt. Management has guided that the previously announced $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) is on track for revenue recognition in the fourth quarter, meaning it is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to third-quarter results.
How the Market Is Reacting Ahead of the Print
Sentiment heading into the report has been mixed. Rigetti shares rallied roughly 19% on Friday and added further gains in the following session ahead of the release, yet the stock remains well below its earlier highs after a difficult July-to-September stretch. Wall Street has maintained a broadly constructive stance, with a majority of analysts carrying Buy ratings, though at least one firm trimmed its price target earlier this month. The key risk factors into the print are sequential revenue volatility, the timing of system deliveries and customer acceptance, and continued pressure from elevated operating expenses. A sharper-than-expected loss or soft commentary on near-term commercialization could test the recent momentum.
What to Watch Beyond the Numbers
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on the timing of the C-DAC order, which management expects to recognize in the fourth quarter of 2026. Clear visibility into future system deliveries and customer acceptance would help smooth the perception of quarter-to-quarter volatility that has defined Rigetti's results.
Technology milestones matter as much as financials for this company. Rigetti has highlighted its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system, based on chiplet tiling, and has said it is targeting roughly 1,000 qubits, 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, and faster gate speeds over the next several years. Progress on coherence time and gate fidelity will be closely watched as indicators of the platform's commercial readiness.
Strategic developments also carry weight. The company's agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for potential funding of up to $100 million, along with its expanded collaboration with HPE and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, could shape the longer-term growth story. Cost trends and the pace of R&D spending remain important, since profitability is still years away and the company's ability to fund its roadmap depends on its strong cash position and any incremental non-dilutive capital.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools in My Research
In preparing for earnings like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered tools to cross-check patterns and compare Rigetti against peers. The AI Screener stands out for quickly filtering stocks by technical signals, fundamentals, and industry trends, which helps refine my watchlist without spending hours on manual work. It is a practical addition to any investor’s routine when focusing on volatile names in emerging sectors.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
RGTI's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for RGTI moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 56 of 60 cases where RGTI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RGTI as a result. In 71 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RGTI just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RGTI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +31.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RGTI advanced for three days, in 217 of 253 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
RGTI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RGTI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for RGTI entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RGTI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.297) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-15.260) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. RGTI's P/S Ratio (370.370) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RGTI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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