GET DAILY SIGNALSRockwell Automation (ROK) Delivers +16% EPS Growth in Fiscal Q4 Despite Revenue Shortfall
Key Takeaways
- Rockwell Automation reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.88 for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, up 16% year over year and ahead of the roughly $3.69 to $3.72 consensus estimate.
- Revenue was $2.33 billion, essentially flat year over year, and came in below consensus expectations of about $2.39 billion to $2.42 billion.
- Enterprise operating margin expanded 320 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point) to 24.5%, reflecting strong operating leverage plus a one-time tariff refund benefit.
- Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 5% organically, below management's earlier high-single-digit target, a key point of investor concern.
- For fiscal 2027, the company guided to 6% to 9% organic sales growth and adjusted EPS of $14.50 to $15.50, implying about 12% EPS growth at the midpoint.
- You can find more information on Rockwell Automation's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on additional pages, and we invite you to explore them.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to discover AI-driven trading strategies built around actionable market signals.
Why These Results Matter
Rockwell Automation closed out fiscal 2026 by surpassing its productivity targets and hitting its long-term 22% enterprise operating margin goal three years early. The quarter tests whether the company can maintain that progress while turning its investments in software, data centers, semiconductors, and autonomous operations into steady recurring revenue. From what I see, investors are focused here because ARR growth slowed during the year and tariff refunds distorted some headline numbers. With fresh guidance for the new fiscal year, this report offers the clearest signal yet on demand in both traditional and newer markets.
Quarterly Performance Breakdown
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, ended September 30, 2026, Rockwell Automation delivered adjusted EPS of $3.88, marking a 16% increase from $3.34 a year ago and topping the consensus range of roughly $3.69 to $3.72. GAAP EPS came in at $3.11 compared with $1.23 in the prior-year period. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Revenue totaled $2.33 billion, up just 0.7% year over year and short of the expected $2.39 billion to $2.42 billion range. Organic sales advanced 3%, while core sales—excluding tariff refunds and the Sensia joint venture dissolution—rose 7%. Enterprise operating margin widened 320 basis points to 24.5%, with about 130 basis points tied to tariff refund items.
Software & Control sales climbed 15% to $754 million at a 34.0% operating margin. Intelligent Devices sales increased 5% to $1.14 billion with a 21.6% margin. Lifecycle Services sales declined 9% on a reported basis to $519 million, though organic sales edged up 2% and the margin eased to 16.4%. The quarter included a net $0.11 EPS lift from IEEPA tariff refunds and a related customer program.
For the full fiscal year, adjusted EPS reached $13.42, up 27%, on revenue of $8.99 billion, up 7.8%, with free cash flow conversion at 113%.
Initial Market Response
Shares fell about 3% right after the release as the revenue miss and softer ARR growth drew more attention than the EPS beat and margin strength. The earnings outperformance looked thinner once tariff benefits were stripped out, while the revenue shortfall appeared milder after adjusting for the customer refund accrual. The slowdown in organic ARR growth—from 7% earlier in the year to 5% in the fourth quarter—remains the main investor worry, given the role of recurring revenue and software in the valuation story. Even so, the full-year results, including the 27% adjusted EPS gain and solid free cash flow, set a steady base for fiscal 2027.
Guidance and What to Watch Next
Rockwell Automation’s fiscal 2027 outlook points to organic sales growth of 6% to 9%, adjusted EPS of $14.50 to $15.50, ARR growth near 7%, an enterprise operating margin around 23%, and free cash flow conversion of about 100%. The midpoint assumes a seasonal drop in the first quarter followed by steady improvement.
Reaccelerating ARR will stay in focus as a driver of valuation support. The combined semiconductor and data center vertical, now about 10% of revenue, is expected to expand at a mid-teens pace. Other items to track include the upcoming Investor Day update on long-term margin targets, cost pressures from memory and electrical components, and constrained PCB supply. Price realization should add roughly 300 basis points to growth, making the price-volume balance a useful gauge of underlying demand.
Refining My Watchlist with AI Tools
I recently turned to Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing industrial names like Rockwell Automation. The tool lets me filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, and AI signals across thousands of names, which helps surface comparable setups in the sector more quickly than manual checks. It has become a regular part of how I narrow ideas before digging deeper into earnings or guidance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ROK in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ROK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ROK as a result. In 55 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ROK just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where ROK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
ROK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROK advanced for three days, in 199 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 148 of 256 cases where ROK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ROK moved out of overbought territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
ROK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 25 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROK's P/B Ratio (14.108) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.084). P/E Ratio (41.407) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.189). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.901) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.198) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
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General Information
a developer of automation equipment and avionics systems
Industry IndustrialMachinery
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