GET DAILY SIGNALSTC Energy (TRP) Posts Strong Third-Quarter Results and Lifts 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Comparable earnings per share rose to $0.94 in the third quarter, up from $0.77 a year earlier, while net income attributable to common shares reached $1.03 billion, or $0.98 per share.
- Revenue climbed to $4.03 billion from $3.70 billion in the prior-year quarter, supported by higher volumes across the company's North American natural gas pipeline network.
- Comparable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) increased to $3.0 billion from $2.7 billion a year ago.
- TC Energy raised its full-year 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook to $11.8 billion to $12.0 billion, up from a prior range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion.
- The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.8775 per common share for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.
Why These Results Matter
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) operates one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure networks, with pipelines spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico plus a growing power generation business. The third-quarter 2026 numbers provide a useful check on whether rising natural gas and electricity demand—partly tied to data centers and coal-to-gas switching—is turning into steady cash flow. Management also used the quarter to refresh its multi-year outlook, approve roughly $3 billion in new projects, and restate its focus on capital discipline and leverage targets. From what I see, the report gives investors a clearer picture of both near-term delivery and the longer-term growth narrative.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, comparable earnings came in at $1.0 billion, or $0.94 per common share, compared with $0.8 billion, or $0.77 per share, in the same period of 2025. Net income attributable to common shares reached $1.03 billion, or $0.98 per share, versus $0.61 billion, or $0.58 per share, a year earlier. Revenue increased to $4.03 billion from $3.70 billion.
Comparable EBITDA moved up to $3.0 billion from $2.7 billion, and segmented earnings rose to $2.3 billion from $1.9 billion. Volume growth helped drive the improvement: Canadian natural gas pipeline deliveries averaged 24.3 Bcf/d, up 6% year over year, with U.S. and Mexico flows also higher. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. Alongside the results, management lifted its 2026 comparable EBITDA range to $11.8 billion to $12.0 billion and set a 2027 target of $12.3 billion to $12.5 billion, while outlining a five-year comparable EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2031.
How the Market Is Responding
TC Energy entered the quarter with supportive conditions from rising natural gas flows and a solid backlog of contracted projects, and the results reinforced that story. The earnings and revenue beats, combined with the higher full-year EBITDA guidance, suggested the growth plan is working. Management highlighted roughly $2.5 billion of projects placed into service year-to-date on time and under budget, which added to investor confidence. Key points for sentiment include keeping debt-to-EBITDA leverage near the 4.75 times target while expanding spending, as well as the steady revenue from take-or-pay contracts that hold up even when commodity prices move.
What to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether volume growth can continue while the company executes a larger capital program. TC Energy expects to place about $3.4 billion of capital into service in 2026 and $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion in 2027, mainly on low-risk natural gas projects within existing corridors. Recent announcements such as the Crossroads Expansion and Coastal GasLink Phase 2 Expansion show how power demand, including from data centers, is opening new opportunities.
Execution remains important. The company is targeting a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.75 times and plans to raise the common dividend at a 3% to 5% annual pace, so balance-sheet management and project cost control will stay in the spotlight. Regulatory developments, such as proposed Canadian permitting changes that could speed up timelines, may also affect growth pace. Investors should also track natural gas demand signals, U.S. rate-case outcomes, and progress on converting the more than $40 billion opportunity set into sanctioned projects. These elements will determine if TC Energy can deliver the steady growth it has outlined through 2031.
Using AI Tools in My Research
In my own analysis, I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare energy names like this one against peers and spot emerging patterns. It has become a regular part of how I screen for opportunities in infrastructure stocks and helps me stay organized when reviewing sector trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TRP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TRP turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where TRP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TRP as a result. In 50 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
TRP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TRP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +2.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRP advanced for three days, in 187 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 171 of 300 cases where TRP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TRP moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 42%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 61 cases where TRP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
TRP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TRP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 44, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.557) is normal, around the industry mean (142.313). P/E Ratio (18.746) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.430). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.974) is also within normal values, averaging (13.660). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (139204411392.000) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.647) is also within normal values, averaging (4.657).
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General Information
a provider of natural gas transportation services
Industry OilGasPipelines
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