GET DAILY SIGNALSThe Metals Company (TMC) Narrows Q3 Loss to $0.06 Per Share as NOAA Decision Shifts
Key Takeaways
- The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of approximately $28.4 million, or $0.06 per share, a sharp improvement from a $184.5 million ($0.46 per share) loss a year earlier.
- The quarterly loss per share landed in line with the analyst consensus estimate of roughly a $0.06 loss.
- TMC remains a pre-revenue development-stage company and held approximately $79.3 million in cash with no financial debt at quarter-end.
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pushed its certification decision on TMC's consolidated application from October to mid-December.
- Management unveiled a lower-cost, capital-light offshore production plan intended to reduce initial capital needs and protect the project timeline.
Why These Results Matter for a Pre-Revenue Explorer
As a deep-sea minerals explorer focused on collecting and processing polymetallic nodules, TMC does not yet generate revenue, so its quarterly report is judged less on sales and more on cash position, spending discipline, and progress toward regulatory approval. The company's long-term value is tied to its resource base and its ability to secure a commercial recovery permit from NOAA under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. After a turbulent stretch in which the stock has traded well below its 52-week high, investors are closely watching whether management can maintain liquidity and move the permitting process forward without further dilution or delays.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
TMC reported a net loss of approximately $28.4 million, or $0.06 per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That compares with a net loss of $184.5 million, or $0.46 per share, in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of roughly 85%. The per-share loss was in line with the analyst consensus estimate of about a $0.06 loss. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Exploration and evaluation expenses rose to $23.5 million from $9.6 million a year earlier, driven by higher development, operating, and vessel costs, increased feasibility and pre-feasibility study spending, and greater legal and professional fees tied to the project. General and administrative (G&A) expenses fell sharply to $9.5 million from $45.7 million, helped by a $32.7 million reduction in share-based compensation expense and lower legal fees. TMC also benefited from a swing in non-operating items, reflecting a gain of $4.6 million versus a loss of $125 million in the prior-year period.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
TMC shares fell roughly 6.3% during regular trading on November 12 to about $2.30 before recovering part of that decline in after-hours trading, according to market data. The mixed reaction reflects a broader investor focus on regulatory timing rather than the quarterly loss itself, which came in as expected. The postponement of NOAA's certification decision to mid-December weighed on sentiment, while the company's new capital-light development plan and its reaffirmed 12-month liquidity runway provided some offset. Heading into the report, sentiment had cooled considerably, with the stock trading near the lower end of its recent range.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The most important near-term catalyst is NOAA's certification decision, now expected by mid-December. Certification represents NOAA's formal finding that TMC has the requisite finances, technology, and plans to commercially collect nodules, and it would move the application into the environmental review stage ahead of a final commercial recovery permit.
Investors should also monitor TMC's updated offshore development plan. Instead of starting with a full 3-million-ton-per-year system, the company now intends to begin at 1 million tons per year using an upgraded version of its proven pilot system. Management says this reduces engineering complexity and cuts roughly $500 million from the capital needed to reach first production, with initial capital expenditure expected around $300 million.
Finally, watch the cash position and burn rate. With approximately $79.3 million in cash and no financial debt at quarter-end, plus additional borrowing availability, management says liquidity is sufficient for at least the next twelve months. Progress on permitting, spending discipline, and any signs of future capital needs will be central to how the market values TMC through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing development-stage companies like this, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers by industry, market cap, and technical signals. It helps me spot comparable names and confirm whether the broader sector is showing similar patterns or divergences. The tool’s customizable criteria make it straightforward to build targeted lists without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TMC's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TMC moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 31 of the 36 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 55 of 67 cases where TMC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TMC just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where TMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +26.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TMC advanced for three days, in 192 of 232 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
TMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TMC as a result. In 86 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for TMC entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 2 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TMC's P/B Ratio (-36.497) is slightly lower than the industry average of (6.813). P/E Ratio (-3.027) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.701). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.026). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TMC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TMC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry OtherMetalsMinerals
Advertisement