GET DAILY SIGNALSUPS Posts Q3 Revenue and EPS Beats While Raising 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
- United Parcel Service (UPS) reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $22.9 billion, up roughly 6.7% year over year and above Wall Street's consensus estimate of about $22.3 billion.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.69, beating the consensus estimate of approximately $1.63.
- GAAP net income was $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per diluted share, down slightly from $1.31 billion, or $1.55 per share, a year earlier.
- All three business segments grew, led by an 18.2% revenue increase in Supply Chain Solutions, a 7.1% gain in International, and a 4.5% rise in U.S. Domestic.
- Management raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the second consecutive quarter, lifting the consolidated revenue outlook to about $92.6 billion.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
United Parcel Service (UPS) continues to execute on a multi-year plan to build a leaner, more automated network while handling the expected volume drop from its largest customer, Amazon. The third-quarter results provide an important checkpoint on whether efficiency gains are feeding through to better profitability as the company heads into the busy holiday period. With full-year 2025 revenue of $88.7 billion and operations across more than 200 countries and territories, UPS figures give a useful window into global trade, e-commerce trends, and industrial activity. I pay close attention to cost-per-piece and free cash flow trends because they show how well the turnaround is turning volume into lasting earnings strength.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, UPS delivered consolidated revenue of $22.9 billion, up about 6.7% from the same period last year and ahead of the consensus estimate of roughly $22.3 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS reached $1.69, above the approximately $1.63 analysts had projected. On a GAAP basis, net income totaled $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per diluted share, compared with $1.31 billion, or $1.55 per share, a year earlier. GAAP results reflected about $279 million in net charges tied to transformation costs and a goodwill impairment in Supply Chain Solutions, partly offset by gains on the sale of previously impaired MD-11 aircraft assets.
By segment, U.S. Domestic revenue increased 4.5% to $14.865 billion, supported by a 6.1% rise in revenue per piece. International revenue grew 7.1% to $5.007 billion, helped by a 15.0% improvement in revenue per piece. Supply Chain Solutions revenue climbed 18.2% to $2.981 billion, driven by gains in forwarding and logistics, including healthcare. Management also lifted full-year guidance to approximately $92.6 billion in revenue, $8.75 billion in adjusted operating profit, $7.28 in adjusted diluted EPS, and $6.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of UPS moved modestly higher in premarket trading after the release, reflecting a generally positive response to the revenue and earnings beats along with the second upward revision to full-year guidance. Investor sentiment has remained cautiously optimistic while the company works through its turnaround, with attention centered on whether cost-reduction efforts can offset the planned volume reductions with Amazon. The stronger-than-expected Supply Chain Solutions and International results, together with improved revenue per piece in the domestic network, appeared to support confidence that the efficiency strategy is progressing ahead of the seasonally important fourth quarter.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, UPS guided to fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $25.7 billion and adjusted operating profit of about $3.3 billion, setting the stage for a busy holiday season. Management noted that the business is entering peak shipping with what it called the most automated and efficient network in its history.
Investors will want to track how domestic average daily volume trends develop now that the planned volume reductions from the largest customer have been completed. The company expects nearly $3 billion in full-year transformation program benefits, with the Efficiency Reimagined initiative not expected to conclude until the fourth quarter of 2027, pointing to further margin opportunities ahead.
Other items worth watching include cost-per-piece trends, which rose modestly on an adjusted basis, and free cash flow generation, which management projects at about $6.1 billion for the full year. Confirmed capital expenditures of approximately $3.0 billion, planned dividend payments of around $5.4 billion subject to board approval, and an effective tax rate of roughly 23% will also influence how efficiently UPS converts revenue into shareholder returns through 2026 and beyond.
Enhancing Research with Tickeron Tools
In my own analysis, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to scan for comparable companies and technical signals across the logistics sector. It helps me quickly filter ideas and benchmark performance without spending hours on manual reviews, which keeps my process efficient when evaluating names like UPS alongside peers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
UPS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 68 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 192 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.665) is normal, around the industry mean (2.636). P/E Ratio (18.647) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.606). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.065) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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