Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI): Assessing the Path to $113
Key Takeaways
- The $113 price objective stems from public discussion and a holdings-weighted aggregation of analyst targets on the ETF's underlying stocks, not from any direct analyst consensus on VYMI itself.
- VYMI recently traded near $102, so the move to $113 would require roughly 11% of additional upside.
- The fund tracks the FTSE All-World ex US High Dividend Yield Index, holding about 1,500 developed- and emerging-market dividend payers, with a heavy financials tilt.
- Supporting factors include cheap valuations, a weak U.S. dollar, and rising international earnings expectations; the biggest risks are currency reversal and financials concentration.
- TipRanks reports a holdings-based average price target of roughly $112.60, with a wide range from about $100.69 to $124.74.
- Get more detail on the ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings on dedicated pages.
Understanding the $113 Target
VYMI is an exchange-traded fund, so no sell-side analyst issues a direct price target on the fund itself. The $113 figure instead comes from public discussion and a holdings-based approach. TipRanks aggregates 12-month analyst price targets across the roughly 963 stocks held in VYMI, producing an average of about $112.60, a low near $100.69, and a high near $124.74. Rounded, that average becomes $113. This is not an official analyst consensus on the fund and should be viewed as a rough, holdings-weighted gauge of where the market sees VYMI's underlying companies heading over the next year.
Current Market Position and Upside Potential
VYMI has recently traded around $102, down from its 52-week high near $107 set in early September 2026, but well above its 52-week low of roughly $82.85. Reaching $113 would require an advance of about 11% from current levels, a modest move in the context of a fund that gained roughly 20% over the trailing year. The path would likely depend on a continuation of the value and international rotation that has favored the fund, steady dividend growth from its holdings, and a U.S. dollar that stays weak or stable.
Factors That Could Support a Move Higher
Several verified factors underpin the bull case. The fund trades at a portfolio-level price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the low-to-mid teens, roughly half that of the S&P 500, providing a valuation cushion and room for multiple expansion. Its top holdings include Roche, HSBC, Royal Bank of Canada, Novartis, Shell, and Toyota, large multinationals with durable cash flows. A roughly 40% weighting to financials aligns with the higher-for-longer rate environment, which supports bank net interest income and dividends. A weaker dollar, which has enhanced unhedged international returns, and expectations of accelerating earnings growth in developed and emerging markets outside the U.S. also support the thesis. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare the fund against peers.
Risks That Could Keep the Target Out of Reach
The main risks are structural rather than company-specific. Because VYMI is unhedged, a meaningful rebound in the U.S. dollar would directly reduce returns for U.S. investors. The fund's heavy concentration in financials cuts both ways: if central banks begin cutting rates more aggressively, bank margins could compress. Slower global growth, particularly in Europe and China, could pressure dividend payers, and some independent valuation models, including GuruFocus's GF Value estimate, have suggested the fund may be trading above intrinsic value after its strong run.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
VYMI's chart shows a clear resistance zone near its 52-week high of roughly $107, the level it must reclaim before $113 becomes reachable. On the downside, support has emerged near the $96 to $99 area, with the psychologically important $100 level acting as a pivot. The fund has spent much of 2026 in a broad uptrend, but its recent pullback from the September peak suggests the next leg higher depends on successfully retaking the prior highs.
Time Horizon and Key Items to Watch
The $113 objective is best understood as a 12-month, holdings-derived figure, though the actual horizon varies because it is built from individual analyst targets. Investors should watch international earnings revisions, the U.S. dollar index, and central-bank rate decisions, all of which move this fund. Quarterly distribution announcements, changes in the fund's financials weighting, and fund-flow data for international equity ETFs are also useful signals.
AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
I have found Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals helpful for monitoring funds like this one. The tool uses artificial intelligence to scan thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on market conditions and technical behavior. For an income-focused ETF such as VYMI, it can highlight shifts in momentum without requiring constant manual chart review, allowing me to complement my own analysis efficiently.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VYMI in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 01, 2026
VYMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 36 of 37 cases where VYMI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VYMI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VYMI as a result. In 68 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VYMI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where VYMI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Following a +1.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VYMI advanced for three days, in 281 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 59 cases where VYMI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
VYMI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VYMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VYMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for VYMI entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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