GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Casella Waste Systems (CWST) Stock Down -5.79% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Casella Waste Systems shares fell roughly 5.79% in Tuesday's session, sliding from a prior close of $99.02 to about $93.29.
- The decline followed a third-quarter earnings miss, with adjusted EPS and revenue coming in below Wall Street consensus.
- Rising costs and a $13.6 million impairment charge tied to the termination of the Granite State landfill project pushed the company to a quarterly net loss.
- Full-year 2026 net income guidance was lowered to a net loss, even as revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlooks were raised or narrowed.
- The stock moved against a backdrop of activist pressure from Jana Partners and a recent analyst downgrade, adding to investor sensitivity.
- Traders are now watching the company's earnings call and any commentary on margin improvement and cost execution.
- For additional detail on this ticker, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- To see which strategies are currently performing best across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Opening Summary
CWST, Casella Waste Systems, Inc., is a vertically integrated solid waste, recycling, and resource management company headquartered in Rutland, Vermont, serving customers primarily across the eastern United States. On Tuesday, shares of CWST traded down roughly 5.79%, falling from a prior-session close of $99.02 to approximately $93.29. The move came as investors digested third-quarter results released after Monday's close, which fell short of consensus expectations on both earnings and revenue and included a downward revision to full-year profitability guidance.
Third-Quarter Earnings Miss
The primary catalyst behind the selloff was a disappointing third-quarter earnings report. CWST posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.35, below the analyst consensus, while revenue of $559.2 million missed estimates of roughly $563 million despite growing 15.2% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 11.4% to $133.5 million, but the company swung to a net loss of $7.0 million, compared with net income of $10.0 million in the same period a year earlier.
Margin Pressure and Impairment Charges
The earnings shortfall was compounded by a notable deterioration in profitability. Operating margin fell to 2.8% from 6.1% a year earlier, pressured by higher depreciation and amortization, acquisition-related expenses, and organizational transformation costs. A key one-time factor was a $13.6 million impairment charge related to the termination of the Granite State landfill development project. These cost headwinds undercut an otherwise solid operational performance, which featured robust solid waste pricing and a 12.8% increase in landfill volumes.
Lowered Full-Year Profitability Guidance
Investors also reacted to guidance that revealed a weaker bottom-line outlook. While CWST raised its full-year revenue range to $2.100 billion–$2.110 billion and narrowed its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $475 million–$481 million, the company lowered its net income outlook to a net loss of between $4 million and $10 million, down from a prior range of net income between $0 and $6 million. The combination of a quarterly loss and a lowered profit forecast amplified concerns about the company's ability to convert strong revenue growth into earnings.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline in CWST shares occurred with meaningful trading activity, as investors repositioned following the earnings release. The move came amid heightened scrutiny of the waste-management name after activist investor Jana Partners built a stake and publicly urged the company to improve margins, capital allocation, and executive compensation alignment. A recent UBS downgrade to Neutral, which cut its price target to $95 from $122 on reduced earnings estimates, also weighed on sentiment heading into the report. The stock's slide pulled it back toward its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which had been trading in the upper $80s to low $90s, leaving shares vulnerable to further technical pressure.
What Comes Next for CWST
Looking ahead, investors will focus on management's earnings call commentary regarding margin recovery, cost execution, and the pace of integration of recent acquisitions. CWST completed six acquisitions in the first nine months of 2026 with more than $170 million in aggregate annualized revenues, and the market will be watching whether these deals translate into improved profitability. Activist engagement from Jana Partners could also drive operational and governance changes. Risks include continued cost inflation, integration challenges, and environmental or regulatory exposure, while any progress on margin improvement or successful M&A execution could support a recovery in sentiment.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CWST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
CWST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CWST as a result. In 58 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CWST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where CWST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for CWST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CWST advanced for three days, in 191 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 257 cases where CWST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CWST moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CWST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CWST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CWST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CWST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.956) is normal, around the industry mean (47.597). CWST's P/E Ratio (1227.625) is considerably higher than the industry average of (56.657). CWST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
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General Information
a provider of solid waste collection and waste management services
Industry EnvironmentalServices
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