GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Casella Waste Systems (CWST) Stock Down -7.12% Today?
Key Takeaways
- CWST fell 7.12% to $91.97 in early trading Tuesday, down $7.05 from Monday's $99.02 close, after the waste hauler's third-quarter results missed on both earnings and revenue.
- Primary catalyst: adjusted EPS of $0.35 landed below the roughly $0.38 consensus, and revenue of $559.2 million came in under the ~$563.4 million expected — the company's first miss after three consecutive beats.
- Secondary drivers: a $13.6 million impairment tied to the terminated Granite State landfill development pushed GAAP results to a $7.0 million net loss, and full-year GAAP guidance was cut to a net loss of $4 million to $10 million from a prior $0 to $6 million profit.
- Broader context: waste peers WM, RSG and WCN were little changed to slightly lower, while small caps softened — the selling was company-specific.
- News Significance Score: 48/100 — a moderate earnings miss met a decline more than four times the stock's typical daily swing.
- Traders are watching the morning earnings call for detail on Mid-Atlantic margins, the pathway to at least 300 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion, and Jana Partners' push for a 27% margin by 2029.
- For deeper research, explore Price Targets, Earnings and Forecast pages for full financial history and consensus estimates.
- Readers can also review Trending AI Robots for a live view of the strongest automated strategies in the current market.
Casella Waste Systems Shares Slide 7.12% After Q3 Miss
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) is a vertically integrated solid waste services company headquartered in Rutland, Vermont, running collection, transfer, landfill, recycling and organics operations across the eastern United States with roughly 5,600 employees and a market value near $5.9 billion. The stock changed hands at $91.97 early Tuesday, down 7.12% from the prior close of $99.02, confirming a decisive move lower. The immediate reason is unambiguous: quarterly results published after Monday's close fell short of Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and the company's GAAP outlook now calls for an annual loss.
The Earnings Miss Behind the Selloff
Third-quarter revenue rose 15.2% year over year to $559.2 million, but that figure trailed consensus near $563.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 missed expectations by roughly three cents and fell from $0.42 a year earlier, marking the first shortfall after three straight beats.
Adjusted EBITDA still grew 11.4% to $133.5 million, supported by 5.9% collection price growth, 4.6% landfill price growth and 12.8% higher landfill volumes. The problem was below that line. Adjusted net income dropped 18.7% to $22.3 million, operating income fell $13.7 million to $15.6 million, and operating margin compressed to 2.8% from 6.1%. Nine-month adjusted free cash flow slipped 7% to $111.1 million.
Guidance was mixed rather than disastrous — revenue was nudged up to $2.100–$2.110 billion and adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $475–$481 million — but the GAAP net income forecast swung to a loss of $4 million to $10 million. In a name trading at a premium multiple, that combination was enough to force a repricing.
Landfill Write-Off and Rising Interest Costs
A $13.6 million impairment on the terminated Granite State landfill development project, which management deemed no longer viable after legal proceedings and an unsupportive political environment, turned a profitable quarter into a $7.0 million net loss. Higher depreciation, acquisition and organizational transformation costs, and a sharp increase in net interest expense tied to the company's aggressive deal strategy compounded the damage. Casella has acquired six businesses in 2026 carrying more than $170 million of annualized revenue, funded in part with debt and equity.
Margin Scrutiny and the Activist Overhang
The quarter landed with profitability already under a microscope. Jana Partners disclosed a position in late October and publicly pressed Casella to lift its EBITDA margin toward 27% by 2029 from roughly 22.7%, tie executive pay to shareholder returns and bring in a performance-improvement consultant — a push that briefly lifted the shares. Management flagged Mid-Atlantic results as slightly behind plan and has responded with leadership changes, route consolidation and expanded floating fuel fees, noting October margins improved about 150 basis points from August. The market is now demanding proof of that inflection rather than promises.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The stock gapped down at the open, printing $91.87 after Monday's $99.02 close and trading as low as $90.81 in the early session. Volume was elevated relative to recent sessions, consistent with an earnings-driven repricing. The move erased the gains built during the October activist rally and pushed shares back toward the $89–$90 zone where their 50-day and 200-day moving averages sit, leaving the stock roughly 15% below its 52-week high of $107.96.
There was no sector-wide catalyst to blame. WM slipped 0.37%, RSG 0.27% and WCN 0.42%, while GFL tumbled more than 10% on news that its board rejected a roughly $22 billion buyout proposal. Broad indices were modestly lower, with the S&P 500 down about 0.6% and small caps off nearly 0.9%, but that backdrop explains only a fraction of Casella's decline.
News Significance Score
The scale runs from 0 — no meaningful news and a move that is normal for the stock — to 100, meaning transformative news paired with an extreme, rare price move. Casella's score is 48 out of 100.
The verified news was moderate: an earnings and revenue miss of roughly 8% and 0.7% respectively, a $13.6 million non-cash impairment and a GAAP guidance reset, partially offset by in-line adjusted EBITDA guidance. The price response was substantial — about 4.1 times the stock's typical daily move of 1.7% — yet only two of the past 79 sessions produced a larger absolute swing. Solid but not exceptional news meeting an unusually large but not unprecedented decline combines into a mid-range score.
What Comes Next for CWST
The fourth-quarter and full-year report, expected in February, will be the real test of whether margin pressure is temporary or structural. Investors will focus on Mid-Atlantic recovery, the durability of 5.9% collection pricing, fuel-cost pass-through, and whether interest expense keeps consuming a larger share of operating gains. Management has committed to at least 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion over three years, and Jana's campaign will keep capital allocation and executive compensation in the spotlight. The pace of acquisitions, landfill permitting — including the recently expanded Hakes site in New York — and the timing of a return to GAAP profitability are the key swing factors. Risks include softer volumes, integration missteps, higher leverage costs and the possibility of further estimate revisions.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
CWST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
CWST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CWST as a result. In 58 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CWST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where CWST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for CWST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CWST advanced for three days, in 191 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 257 cases where CWST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CWST moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CWST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CWST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CWST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CWST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.956) is normal, around the industry mean (47.597). CWST's P/E Ratio (1227.625) is considerably higher than the industry average of (56.657). CWST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
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General Information
a provider of solid waste collection and waste management services
Industry EnvironmentalServices
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